The Premier League Run-In - Which Team Will Win?

Arsenal’s dramatic 1-0 win over West Ham last weekend saw the Gunners take a decisive step towards their first Premier League title since 2004. Leandro Trossard scored a later winner, while the VAR intervened to disallow Callum Wilson’s 94th-minute equaliser following a foul on David Raya.

Mikel Artreta’s men now sit five points clear of Manchester City, who currently have a game in hand. The Gunners have just two more matches to play, and their current outright odds of 1.14 imply an 87.7% win probability. If Arsenal win both of their remaining fixtures, they’ll win the league by at least two points.

Below, we’ll take a closer look at each team’s run-in and the factors that will impact the final destination of the Premier League title.

An Overview of the Title Race

Arsenal could wrap up the title within the next week, if City drop points at home to Palace and they defeat Burnley at the Emirates on Monday, 18th May. However, the title race will go to the final day if City defeat Palace and Bournemouth in the next seven days, either side of their FA Cup final clash against Chelsea.

The Gunners definitely have easier fixtures, with Burnley already relegated and their match against Palace scheduled just three days prior to the Europa Conference League final. Conversely, City must visit a Bournemouth side that’s unbeaten in 16 EPL games since a 3-2 loss against Arsenal on January 3rd.

The odds are certainly against Pep Guardiola’s side, with Opta affording City just a 12.8% win probability. However, the Citizens’ average betting odds of 5.50 imply an 18.2% chance of them winning, so the bookies clearly have a little more faith in the side.

Arsenal’s Opta win probability closely matches the one implied by their bookmaker odds (87.7% vs 87.2%). It cannot be denied that the Gunners are now the overwhelming favourites, despite their previous struggles and failure to translate dominant league positions into silverware.

Arsenal’s Run-In

The race is definitely in Arsenal’s hands, as the side will be crowned EPL champions if they win their last two matches. These are both favourable fixtures, with Burnley already relegated having won just two road games in 18 attempts in the 2025/26 campaign.

Palace are also expected to rest players when they entertain Arsenal in the final game of the season, which is scheduled just three days before they meet Rayo Vallecano in the UEFA Conference League at the Red Bull Arena on Wednesday, 27th May.

Arsenal have three additional days rest before the Champions league final, while the Gunners have already beaten both opponents this season without conceding a goal.

Manchester City’s Run-In

City’s run-in is complicated by their FA Cup final appearance, which sandwiches games against Palace and Bournemouth. They’ll be expected to defeat Palace at the Etihad Stadium, especially after their dominant victory over Brentford at the same venue last weekend.

However, their final two matches will be challenging. A trip to Bournemouth is particularly problematic, given the Cherries’ long unbeaten run and the fact that they remain in contention for a Champions League spot.

Villa may also need points to secure their own UCL spot when they travel to the Etihad on the final day of the season. However, much will depend on the outcome of the Villains’ Europa League final against Freiburg just four days’ previously, as a victory here will have already booked them a Champions League place for 2026/27.

The Last Word - Will Arsenal or Manchester City Prevail?

The Opta analysis and bookmaker odds offer a clear insight into the Premier League run-in, with Arsenal’s high win probability underpinned by a significant points advantage and their easier fixture list.

There’s certainly scope for City to drop points at Bournemouth, especially as the pressure could be intense when they travel to the Vitality Stadium on Tuesday, 19th May. If the Gunners win against Burnley the previous day, they’ll be at least five points clear and within touching distance of the title.

The key is for City to triumph in their games and remain in contention, ensuring that there’s pressure on the Gunners to win every time they take to the field. There remains a chance that Arsenal could buckle in one of their two remaining matches, particularly as they lack the experience of getting over the line in a major competition under Arteta.

Overall, however, it’s advantage Arsenal in the title race, and it’s hard to imagine them dropping points against either Burnley or Palace. Win these two matches, and the title will be theirs for the first time in 22 years.

Stay tuned for more weekly sports content.