Reasons to be sceptical that Michael Carrick is the right man for the full-time Manchester United job

Sacking their boss with the team two places off the Champions League spots and replacing him with a club legend who goes on a fantastic run of results leading to some fans losing the run of themselves and calling for said club legend to get the job full-time.

Seems familiar Manchester United supporters, doesn’t it?

Back in 2018, it was Jose Mourinho that was sacked and replaced by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, who then won 11 of his first 15 Premier League matches. This season it was Ruben Amorim who was sacked with his side 6th in the table, level on points with fifth-placed Chelsea and just 3 points off Liverpool in 4th. Michael Carrick was the man chosen to replace Amorim, and he has gone on to win 10 of his opening 15 matches as United boss.

Cue the obvious calls for the former United midfielder to get the job on a permanent basis, but haven’t Manchester United been down this road before?

Funnily enough, Carrick’s best spell in charge at Middlesbrough was the 2022/23 campaign, the season he joined with part of the season already played, kind of like this season at Manchester United. That was in October 2022, and he brought the club from 21st to the play-offs, ultimately losing to Coventry City.

Manchester United Since Carrick Took Over

On the face of it, everything seems hunky-dory if you are a supporter of Carrick being given the job long-term. 32 points since his arrival, the most of any team in that time, but dig a little deeper into the stats, and there are some warning signs for fans. Carrick has only managed 15 games as United boss, a meagre amount compared to some of the clubs United will expect to challenge for European spots and trophies over the coming years. For context, Arsenal have played 29 games in that time, Manchester City, Chelsea and Newcastle 25 and Liverpool and Aston Villa 24.

Now this is not Carrick’s fault; he took over a team that had been knocked out of both the FA Cup and the Carabao Cup, but there are important issues to address here. Firstly, coaching a team with only one game a week is obviously different to doing it for two games a week, as United will be doing next season. There is less time to train, with the travelling and the fact that there is an extra match, but given that United are underperforming on quite a few metrics under Carrick compared to Amorim, there is an argument that even with the extra time, he and his staff are not excelling when it comes to coaching the players.

Reasons to be sceptical

When we look at some of those metrics, we can see that Carrick’s main strength since his arrival has been his man-management skills and the determination and fight he has instilled in his team. There is no great tactical astuteness, bar the fact he has moved away from the 3-4-2-1 system the team played under Amorim and switched back to a 4-2-3-1 formation, allowing Bruno to return to his favoured No. 10 position. United, under Carrick, are attacking less than they were under Amorim, with Carrick’s United mustering just under 14 shots per game with an xG of 1.43, compared to 16 under Amorim with an xG of 1.80. They also have an overall xG of just over 20, which places them 9th in the table.

Now the fact that they are sitting 3rd means, in the short term at least, Carrick has been able to get the team to overperform. Only Nottingham Forest, under another new boss in Vitor Pereira, have a better xG overperformance than Manchester United since Carrick took over. United also have the best shot conversion rate in the league since Carrick took over, meaning, again, in the short term at least, he has some players who have hit some form. 8 teams have been better at making chances in the Premier League, but United’s conversion rate means they have hit 27 goals during Carrick’s spell, the best in the league.

Rivals Underperformance

Another factor which has helped United to climb to 3rd is the poor form of some of their rivals in the race for Champions League spots. Since Carrick has come in, Liverpool have collected 24 points, Aston Villa 16 points, and Chelsea only 18 points. There is no doubt that the underperformance of their rivals has greatly contributed to United sitting 3rd in the table with just 2 games to go.

Conclusion

It is looking increasingly likely that Michael Carrick will secure the Manchester United job on a full-time basis, but the factors outlined above as well as the availability of some top-quality alternatives mean this could be a poor choice by the United hierarchy. If Manchester United wants to rebuild with a modern coaching philosophy and football identity, someone like Andoni Iraola should be the clear choice over Michael Carrick. If Luis Enrique is unattainable, merely sticking with the status quo should not be the height of United’s ambitions. Iraola would provide attacking football and tactical flexibility, and of the realistic options available, would look to be a more ambitious choice than Carrick.

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