Japan v Samoa Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - RWC '23

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TournamentRugby World Cup 2023
Timetable8.00 PM - 28 Sep 23
PredictionSamoa to win!
OddsSamoa to Win @ 1.60
Samoa to win!
The best odds
Odds : 1.60
Bet €10 and win €16.00 if Samoa win.
€50+ 50 Free Spins
Odds : 1.57
Bet €10 and win €15.70 if Samoa win.

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Tony​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.50
Bet €10 and win €15.00 if Samoa win.

Match prediction 26 of 48 of our Rugby World Cup 2023 betting series.

Steven's prediction accuracy 2023: ✔️ 84.48%.

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Next for week four of the Rugby World Cup will be the Pool D game of Japan v Samoa on Thursday, the 28th of September. Kick-off will be at 8 p.m. IST and will be played as the Stade de Toulouse.

The match officials this time around will be referee Jaco Peyper, assisted by Ben O'Keeffe and Craig Evans. The TMO for the day will be Marius Jonker.

The Brave Blossoms have played 17 historical tests against Samoa, only winning five out of those clashes with the Pacific islanders picking up the rest. In the last match, Japan were edged out in a close match, but they will be hoping for a different result this time out. Can they achieve that? Let's find out with my Japan v Samoa prediction.

💯 Japan v Samoa Betting Odds Rugby World Cup

Looking for Japan v Samoa betting odds? Let's see what my favourite rugby bookmakers have cooked up for this test.

🥇 Japan v Samoa Match Winner Odds

With both sides more evenly matched than in other events this tournament, punters will be happy to see match winner odds above the 1.01 for a change. See what odds you can claim below.


➕ Japan v Samoa Handicap 3-Way Odds

It seems the bookies think this will be less of a close game than their last encounter, but they are still sticking to our the five to six points mark for their handicap margins. Discover the handicap odds my favourite bookmakers are offering in the table below.


🏮 Japan v Samoa Asian Handicap Odds

If you are not happy with the handicap ranges for the European variants, why not have a quick look at the odds for the Asian handicap market? Full details below.


Odds are accurate as of time of writing. Odds are subject to change. Please visit each bookmaker's respective website for the latest offers.

🔍 Japan v Samoa Winner Prediction

I don't believe either side will make it to the knock-out stages of the competition, but this will be a big match for both sides if they hope to prove me wrong or potentially qualify automatically to the Rugby World Cup 2027.

In their last six matches, Japan were unable to drum up enough to score more than two wins, losing the other four. Samoa, on the other hand, claimed four wins and lost two. Of those combined 12 matches, four were played during this Rugby World Cup, with Japan winning against Chile in round one, 42-12 and losing against England in week two, 34-12 and Samoa hammering Chile in their first round, 43-10 and falling short against Argentina, 19-10. There's not a lot of difference between the two sides' respective performances, but I would say that Samoa do seem to have had the better run of form of the two.

If we look at the world rankings, it's somewhat an easier picture of a potential winner, with Samoa in 11th and Japan trailing behind in 14th.

It seems so far that all key indicators are predicting that this match will be won by the Pacific islanders. As much as I love to see Japan play, I don't think they are going to pull off one of their Rugby World Cup miracles in this game. They will try to get the ball out wide and dominate with their backs, but I can see the powerhouses from Samoa creating trouble for them in the break-downs and set pieces and upsetting their game. Things should still be relatively close, however, so I am going with Samoa to win by ten points.

My Japan v Samoa winner prediction: Samoa to win!

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✔️ Japan v Samoa Betting Tips

1️⃣ Match Winner: Samoa to Win

I actually like the look of the match winner market for a change, so I think I would be tempted to bet on the bookies' favourites and go for Samoa to win at 1.60 at Betway.

2️⃣ Handicap Winner: Samoa to Win (-4)

I think Samoa are going to be smiling at the end of the game with a cool 10-point victory. By that logic, it would seem that your best bet is Samoa to win (-4) at 1.91 at BoyleSports. Just remember that whilst that gives you a five-point buggeration margin compared to my prediction, Japan only need to be within four points of Samoa for your bet to go foul; therefore weigh up your choices carefully and gamble responsibly.

📰 Rugby World Cup News for Japan v Samoa

Discover the latest news for both teams ahead of Japan v Samoa.

🌸 Japan News

🌋 Samoa News

📺 Previous Japan v Samoa Highlights

For highlights of the last Japan v Samoa match, catch the action in the video below.

⚡ RWC Japan v Samoa Prediction Overview

1️⃣ When is Japan v Samoa kick-off?

Kick-off for Japan v Samoa will be 8.00 p.m. IST on Thursday, the 28th of September 2023. The match will be played at Stade de Toulouse, Toulouse.

2️⃣ Who is my Japan v Samoa winner?

I believe that Samoa will win this Rugby World Cup Pool D match by 10 points.

3️⃣ What are some Japan v Samoa betting tips?

Out of the most popular rugby betting markets for Japan v Samoa, I would offer the following betting tips:

  1. Match winner betting tip: Samoa to win at 1.60 at Betway.
  2. Handicap betting tip: Samoa to win (-4) at 1.91 at BoyleSports.

4️⃣ Can I get free bets for Japan v Samoa?

Yes, a lot of my favourite bookies offer free bets that you can use for Japan v Samoa. Find out more about Japan v Samoa free bets in our dedicated bookmaker promotions section above.

Samoa to win!

✒️ Steven Brown - International Sports Writer and Tipster

This Japan v Samoa prediction was written by Steven Brown. Steven is an internationally revered rugby coach and sports writer. Steven's technical knowledge of the game, built upon numerous coaching qualifications and experiences as a Director of Rugby for clubs in both hemispheres, make him invaluable to us at Betinireland.ie. Channelling his extensive experience and keen analysis, his predictions are able to provide insight into aspects of the game that regular fans and pundits may have otherwise missed. It is Steven's dedication to his prediction-writing that has, so far, made him one of the top rugby writers in Europe.

Check out more of my Rugby World Cup predictions with the links below.