Italy vs South Africa Prediction & Betting Odds - Autumn Nations Series 2022: Can Italy Grab another Pizza History against of the Springboks?
| Timetable | Saturday 19th of November 2022 at 17.30 GMT |
| Prediction | South Africa to Win! |
| Odds | South Africa to Win @ 1.05 |
| Bookmaker | TonyBet Sports |
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One of the two first games in this weekend of the Autumn Nations Series 2022 sees gli Azzurri, Italy take on the Springboks, South Africa at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genoa. Given two shock wins for the home side and two losses for the current Rugby World Cup' champions, this may be shaping up to be a closer game than we might have expected historically. Who will claim the bragging rights, however? Let's break down some of the key indicators for this rugby prediction. I will also give a few of my rugby betting tips for those fancying a flutter on Saturday's game.
💯 Italy vs South Africa Betting Odds
Here are some of the latest Italy vs South Africa odds from the best betting sites in Ireland, to give you a flavour of how the bookies think this test will go.
🥇 Italy vs South Africa: Match Winner Odds
 |  |  |  |  |  |  | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9.29 | 8.00 | 8.50 | 8.80 | 8.50 | 8.50 | 9.00 |
| Draw | 32.32 | 31.00 | 34.00 | 26.00 | 41.00 | 41.00 | 34.00 |
 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.07 | 1.03 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.05 |
➕ Italy vs South Africa: Asian Handicap Betting Odds
| | | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | 1.50 | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | 1.5 |
| 1.62 | 1.65 | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | 1.65 |
| 1.81 | 1.83 | TBA | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.84 | 1.85 |
| 2.05 | 2.05 | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | 2.1 |
| 1.66 | 1.70 | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | 1.73 |
| 1.86 | 1.90 | TBA | 1.82 | 1.87 | 1.84 | 1.95 |
| 2.11 | 2.10 | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | 2.2 |
| 2.43 | 2.50 | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | 2.6 |
📜 History of Italy vs South Africa
First meeting in 1995, the Italy vs South Africa test has been played a total of 15 times. Let's break down the numbers, to see if we can find our winner for this match.
| Teams | Totals |
|---|---|
| Italy Wins | 1 |
| South Africa | 14 |
| Draws | 0 |
Nobody can argue South Africa's dominance over Italy over the years - especially given the Springboks racked up their highest-ever win against the Europeans, 101-0. Can more recent results offering an inkling of hope for the Italians?
| Match | Date | Venue | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa vs Italy | 8th June 2013 | Kings Park Stadium, Durban | 44–10 | South Africa |
| Italy vs South Africa | 22nd November 2014 | Stadio Euganeo, Padua | 6–22 | South Africa |
| Italy vs South Africa | 19th November 2016 | Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence | 20–18 | Italy |
| Italy vs South Africa | 25th November 2017 | Stadio Euganeo, Padua | 6–35 | South Africa |
| South Africa vs Italy | 4th October 2019 | Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa, Fukuroi | 49–3 | South Africa |
So, Italy did manage their one win in the last five games, but that did come six years ago. Plus, a points difference in those matches of 168-45 makes this look like South Africa will be handing out another drumming to the Europeans.
🌏 Comparison of World Rankings Rugby Union
| New Rank | Shift | Country | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | Ireland | 90.63 |
| 2 | 0 | France | 90.01 |
| 3 | 0 | New Zealand | 89.15 |
| 4 | 0 | South Africa | 87.81 |
| 5 | 0 | England | 84.45 |
| 6 | 0 | Argentina | 82.04 |
| 7 | +2 | Wales | 81.26 |
| 8 | -1 | Australia | 80.64 |
| 9 | -1 | Scotland | 80.28 |
| 10 | 0 | Japan | 77.39 |
| 11 | +1 | Italy | 76.15 |
| 12 | +2 | Samoa | 75.65 |
| 13 | -2 | Fiji | 74.84 |
| 14 | -1 | Georgia | 73.19 |
| 15 | 0 | Tonga | 70.13 |
It's not so much a surprise that the current world champions, South Africa would find themselves fourth in the world, even with a few games that haven't gone their way this year. With Italy having moved up the board but still in 11th, it would seem that this is just another indicator that the Springboks should be a merry lot at the end of 80 minutes.
✔️ Italy vs South Africa: Recent Form of the Teams
One of the more interesting indicators, going into this match, is how both teams have performed in the 2022 Autumn Nations Series. Let me explain why that is and why Italy may have some hope of adding a second win to Italy vs South Africa test history.
🐺 Matches Recap: Italy Autumn Nations Series 2022 So Far
Gli Azzurri have very much flipped the script in their last two matches, versus Samoa and versus Australia. Indeed, hammering Samoa 49-17 in their first game was certainly a triumph for Italian rugby, but nobody would have expected their one-point win against the Aussies. Cynics would point to the latter game being a throw-away by the Australians, given that the match was ultimately decided by a last-minute missed kick by debutant Ben Donaldson, but I have to quash that notion and defend the Europeans. An ugly win is still a win at the end of the day, and the fact that Italy were able to put together an 80-minute performance that got them into such a winning position in the first place means they deserve all credit to them. I think the Italians have played out of their skins this year, so South Africa would be foolish to approach this game lightly.
🦌 Matches Recap: South Africa Autumn Nations Series 2022 So Far
On the other side of the coin, South Africa haven't had as fortuitous a time in this year's Autumn Nations Series as they would have liked, losing twice against Ireland and against France. I can make the argument that I did expect the current world number one and number two respectively to win those matches, given both of their forms, but with two losses compared to two wins, South Africa aren't looking as pretty as the home side. On form alone, I would have to give this one to Italy. Will this be the deciding factor? You'll find out in my final thoughts.
🕵️ My Italy vs South Africa Prediction Winner
So, gli Azzurri have the form whilst the Springboks are the better side on paper. Who is going to win what may well be the biggest Italy vs South Africa test to date? I have to give it to the visitors. South Africa may not have the Ws on the board they want, but they have been keeping up with the best of them with three- and four-point losses respectively - essentially one score difference. I am genuinely excited to see what Italy put together this time, given their dramatic improvement this year, but I still think it will be lekker day at the end of 80 minutes.
My rugby prediction: South Africa to win.
💶 Italy vs South Africa Betting Tips
Betting on the Italy vs South Africa match winner isn't going to give you much potential for a return, considering odds of 1.05 for South Africa to win. Then again, maybe short odds are your thing. If you fancy a bet with a higher possible return, however, you may have to look at handicap betting. I would say, were I to be optimistic, that the Springboks could go on to stick a 20-point margin on the scoreboard, but being more conservative, the rugby bet that catches my eye is South Africa to win (-16.5 points) at odds of 1.66. Alternatively, you could lengthen your odds with accumulator betting, given that there will be more games over the weekend - e.g. Wales vs Georgia and Scotland vs Argentina.
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⚡ Italy vs South Africa Overview - Quick Match Prediction
What Will Be the Italy vs South Africa Result?
- I think South Africa will take the win at odds of 1.05.
Why Will South Africa Win?
- South Africa lead in the world rankings: fourth versus 11th.
- The Springboks have outshined Italy in 14 out of 15 of their previous tests.
- Scoring difference of 168-45 to South Africa in the last five tests against Italy.
What Are Some Italy vs South Africa Betting Tips?
- South Africa to win at odds of @ 1.05 may be short for some.
- Consider the Springboks to win (-16.5 points) at odds of 1.66.
✒️ Steven Brown - International Sports Writer and Tipster
This Italy vs South Africa prediction was written by Steven Brown.
Steven is an internationally revered rugby coach and sports writer. His insight with his predictions comes from his rugby coaching qualifications, successes coaching youth and men's teams in both hemispheres, and from analytical research into world rugby.
