Italy vs Samoa Prediction & Betting Odds - Autumn Nations Series 2022: Can the Home Side Weather a Pacific Storm?

Italy vs Samoa Autumn Nations Series 2022 banner Italy vs Samoa Autumn Nations Series 2022 banner
TimetableSaturday 5th of November 2022 at 13.00 GMT
PredictionSamoa to Win!
OddsSamoa to Win @ 2.43
BookmakerTonyBet Sports
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Odds : 2.43
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Odds : 2.40
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Odds : 1.91
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Italy versus Samoa rugby Italy versus Samoa rugby

Week two of the Autumn Nations Series 2022 will see Italy Vs Samoa at the Stadio Plebiscito, Padua, Italy. This is a bit of an interesting one for which to write a prediction, given that Autumn Internationals rugby fans around the world think this will either be the closest of encounters or a run-away success for either side. Perhaps looking at some of the key indicators, I can elucidate what the likely outcome is and give some ideas of the more lucrative rugby betting markets.

💯 Italy vs Samoa Betting Odds

In order to work out whether or not it could be worth having a punt on this match, we are going to need to see some Italy vs Samoa Autumn Nations rugby odds. At the time of writing, there are currently none available from the best betting sites, but I will be keeping an eye out for when these are released in order to keep you updated.

Visit our Rugby World Cup Betting Odds page and stay updated with tips, free bets and more.

🥇 Italy vs Samoa Match Winner Odds

Italy to Win1.611.601.911.591.501.671.60
Samoa to Win2.432.401.912.312.502.242.38

📜 History of Italy vs Samoa

A good indicator of a winner when writing any rugby match prediction is to look at the history between the two teams battling it out. In this case, we have some interesting results from which to draw:

Italy vs Samoa27th May 1995ABSA Stadium, East London18-42Samoa
Samoa vs Italy8th July 2000Apia Park, Apia43-24Samoa
Italy vs Samoa24th November 2001Stadio Tommaso Fattori, L'Aquila9-17Samoa
Italy vs Samoa28th November 2009Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno24-6Italy
Samoa vs Italy15th June 2013Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit39-10Samoa
Samoa vs Italy14th June 2014Apia Park, Apia15-0Samoa
Italy vs Samoa8th November 2014Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno24-13Italy

As a humorous point, one could argue that history shows us that Italy can only win against Samoa when playing at the Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, so this is already a Samoan victory. Putting aside that coincidence, the previous fixtures do give an idea of which way things may go: Samoa have won five and Italy have won two. This would suggest that Samoa will chalk up another win.

🌏 Comparison of World Rankings Rugby Union

3South Africa89.00
4New Zealand87.30

For rugby fans that know little about the Pacific Islanders' backstory, Samoa has a long heritage of playing rugby union - one that stretches back farther, even, than the Italians to 1924. Perhaps it is for that reason, or the fact that the Italians' main focus is the footy-kicky version of this sport, that means it comes as no real surprise that the teams are 11th and 14th respectively. I think this is another predictor that Samoa look likely to come away with a win when the dust has settled.

✔️ Italy vs Samoa Team Preview

A longer historical perspective can give a lot of insight into the way the scoreboard may look after 80 minutes, but with Italy vs Samoa in particular, I think there is especially something to be said of their recent rugby matches.

🐺 Italy Autumn Nations Series Team Preview

For most of the Six Nations 2022, as I predicted back in February and March, gli Azzurri took quite the drumming, losing four out of five matches to France, England, Ireland, and Scotland by a margin of 160 to 38 points. Italy did have a surprise in store for us, however, clinching their last match against Wales in a surprising 21-22 epic on foreign soil. Whilst I think the outcome was a good result for world rugby and somewhat helped to quell the call for Italy to be evicted from the European tournament, I don't think this should spark enough confidence in those that like betting on rugby to get out their wallets at this stage. Let's take a look at how Italy's opposition are looking pre-game.

📰 Italy Autumn Nations Series News

🌋 Samoa Autumn Nations Series Team Preview

Samoa have certainly had a more successful start to their 2022 international rugby campaign, given they coasted to an easy wrap-up of the Pacific Nations Cup. Yes, one could argue that the competition doesn't host the same level of quality as the Six Nations and that comparing Italy and Samoa's respective results is all apples and oranges. Nevertheless, I think it's an important consideration because it will be telling of psychology going into this match. Samoa will be riding high from three wins in a row, whereas Italy may only have flash-in-the-pan confidence at best. This could give Samoa the edge they need to put Italy to the sword late in the game.

📰 Samoa Autumn Nations Series News

🌦️ Weather Conditions at Stadio Plebiscito, Padua

Weather in rugby is a key factor and can have a huge influence on the game. We are, however, talking about autumn in Italy - a far-cry from the biblical conditions that may occur in the Scotland vs Australia game. The long-range forecast is 16 degrees with clouds and patchy sunshine, meaning the weather may therefore be a little mild for some Samoa players but not enough to disrupt the match or give either side an advantage. Give the Samoans on the bench some coats, and I'm sure they'll be able to get on with the job at hand.

🕵️ Our Italy vs Samoa Prediction Winner

All indications are pointing to a Samoan win; I think this is more of a case of those looking to bet on rugby searching for the final score. I don't see this as being a landslide victory, however, and I think Samoa will win by six points. Sure, Italy will put on a good show for the home fans, but I don't think they'll have quite the killer instinct needed to convert passion to points.

💶 Italy vs Samoa Betting Tips

My thinking for this one is that you could have a punt on a Samoan victory, but it could be fun to place a low-bet accumulator on this game and some of the other Autumn Nations Series 2022 fixtures from this weekend. I would stress, however, the 'low-bet' part - something affordable can be fun; betting the shirt off your back would be devastating on the off-chance that Italy pull off another surprise, like the Wales game in the Six Nations.

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⚡Italy vs Samoa Overview - Quick Match Prediction:

What Will Be the Italy vs Samoa Result?

  • I think Samoa will take the win.

Why Will Samoa Win?

  • Samoa have a history of beating Italy, even on foreign shores.
  • They are the on-paper better team in world rankings - 11th to 14th respectively.
  • The Islanders have been in better recent form.

What Are Some Italy vs Samoa Betting Tips?

  • It could be an idea to combine odds in this game with others from this weekend of the Autumn Nations Series 2022.
  • Don't go crazy! - keep any bets low to avoid disappointment on the off-chance of a surprise Italian upset.

✒️ Steven Brown - International Sports Writer and Tipster

This Italy vs Samoa prediction was written by Steven Brown.

Steven is an internationally revered rugby coach and sports writer. His insight with his predictions comes from his rugby coaching qualifications, successes coaching youth and men's teams in both hemispheres, and from analytical research into world rugby.