Italy vs Australia Prediction & Betting Odds - Autumn Nations Series 2022: The Underdogs that Can

Italy vs Australia Autumn Nations Series 2022 banner
TournamentAutumn Nations Series 2022
TimetableSaturday 12th of November 2022 at 13.00 GMT
PredictionAustralia to Win!
OddsAustralia to Win @ 1.12
BookmakerTonyBet Sports
Australia to Win!
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Odds : 1.12
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Odds : 1.10
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Odds : 1.08
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Italy vs Australia rugby

We're in for another intriguing match in week three as Italy take on Australia at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence. So far, both sides have had interesting outings, which we will cover later, and I expect a fantastic competition to see who will grab their second win of the Autumn Nations Series 2022. I will also include a few tips for those interesting in a splash of rugby betting.

💯 Italy vs Australia Betting Odds

Italy vs Australia betting odds Tonybet banner

Below, I have compiled the Italy vs Australia odds from some of the best betting sites in Ireland.

🥇 Italy vs Australia: Match Winner Odds

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Italy to Win6.075.506.506.456.506.505.75
Draw34.6831.0041.0023.7536.0036.0034.00
Australia to Win1.121.101.081.081.111.111.11

➕ Italy vs Australia: Handicap Betting Odds

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Italy (+17.5)1.641.65TBATBATBATBATBA
Italy (+15.5)1.831.85TBATBA1.871.841.90
Italy (+13.5)2.082.10TBATBATBATBATBA
Italy (+11.5)2.402.50TBATBATBATBATBA
Australia (-11.5)1.491.50TBATBATBATBATBA
Australia (-13.5)1.641.65TBATBATBATBATBA
Australia (-15.5)1.831.85TBATBA1.871.841.90
Australia (-17.5)2.082.10TBATBATBATBATBA

📜 History of Italy vs Australia

Newer rugby fans may not be aware that the first Italy vs Australia test dates back all the way to 1973, with a total of 18 official matches between the two sides having been played. I have broken down the numbers below.

TeamsTotals
Italy Wins0
Australia Wins18
Draws0

Italy have yet to beat the Australians in this test, but can you wisely dismiss Italy at this stage? Italy's recent performances in the Six Nations are certainly a sign that the Europeans are starting to get their act together - any Welsh fans remember the 2022 Wales vs Italy game, for example? Let's take a look at some of the recent results between gli Azzurri and The Wallabies, to see how close a match we can expect.

MatchDateVenueScoreWinner
Australia vs Italy11th September 2011North Harbour Stadium, Auckland32-6Australia
Italy vs Australia24th November 2012Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence19–22Australia
Italy vs Australia9th November 2013Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin20–50Australia
Australia vs Italy24th June 2017Lang Park, Brisbane40–27Australia
Italy vs Australia17th November 2018Stadio Euganeo, Padova7–26Australia

Apart from their match at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, it seems that none of the last five Italy vs Australia results have been particularly close - not within one score, anyway. History seems to predict an Australian win, but let's see if other key factors can influence the final result.

🌏 Comparison of World Rankings Rugby Union

New RankShiftCountryPoints
10Ireland90.63
20France89.41
3+1New Zealand88.64
4-1South Africa88.41
50England84.45
6+2Argentina83.01
7-1Australia82.08
8+1Scotland80.74
9-2Wales80.28
100Japan77.39
11+1Fiji74.84
12+2Italy74.71
130Georgia74.51
14-3Samoa74.33
15+1Tonga69.96

We can see that Italy have snuck up the rankings by two places, but seventh-place Australia still seem in the driving seat despite dropping below Argentina last week. That's one more indicator for The Wallabies to grab the W, going into this rugby test.

✔️ Italy vs Australia: Recent Form of the Teams

I believe the recent form of the teams will be the ultimate clue as to the winner of Italy vs Australia, so let's take a look at how both nations have fared in the Rugby Autumn Nations Series 2022 so far.

🐺 Matches Recap: Italy Autumn Nations Series 2022 So Far

Gli Azzurri had a cracker of an opening game against Samoa last week, storming to a shock 49-17 win at home. Compared to a lot of the rest of their year's endeavours, Italy looked strong throughout 80 minutes and bagged a well-deserved win. Will a recent surge for the Europeans be enough to secure themselves two in a row against an equally resurgent Australia, though?

🦘 Matches Recap: Australia Autumn Nations Series 2022 So Far

The Wallabies also secured a surprise victory against Scotland at Murrayfield in the first week of the Autumn Nations Series 2022, but were denied in their 30-29 test against France last week by a 77th-minute Penaud try. Despite a small dent in their campaign, the Australians are showing greater consistency of play and look in good shape to bring their best to the Stadio Artemio Franchi. It's a tricky ask to separate these two teams on recent form, but I think the Aussies have shined the better against tougher competition, so I think Head Coach, Dave Rennie will be expecting his Men in Gold to deliver the goods this weekend.

🌦️ Weather Conditions at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence

The weather is a huge part of rugby. The long-range forecast is that it will be clear and sunny with temperatures around 20 degrees, which is intriguing in itself, given that, for once, I don't think such conditions will favour either team. I think the key take-away from this indicator is that there's still no tick in the box for the home side at this stage.

🕵️ My Italy vs Australia Prediction Winner

I used to go with my gut instinct when deciding on my winner pre-match. Time and experience, though, have taught me that I am at my best with rugby predictions when looking at the key indicators. In that case, on history, word rankings, recent form, and the weather, I can only give this to Australia. I would like to see Italy at their best again this week, but I think gli Azzurri may lack the killer instinct of the more experienced Aussies, which means that if the Men in Gold start to stretch any kind of lead, I can see Italian heads dropping whilst the visitors turn the screw. Whilst Italy are always good for pulling off an upset when it is least expected, I don't think this will be the match when that happens.

💶 Italy vs Australia Betting Tips

For those not as interested in shorter odds of 1.12 for Australia to win, I would say to consider handicap betting. For me, the Aussies are going to wrap this up by 15 points, so a bet of Australia to win (-13.5 points) at odds of 1.64 may be the one for those searching for longer options. You could also consider combining odds for this match with other games from the weekend, if you fancy your luck. Just be careful when selecting teams and your wager, however - especially given how Italy surprised us all last week!

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⚡ Italy vs Australia Overview - Quick Match Prediction

What Will Be the Italy vs Australia Result?

  • I think Australia will take the win at odds of 1.12.

Why Will Australia Win?

  • Australia are the better team on paper - seventh in the world versus Italy's 12th.
  • The Aussies have proved themselves on-form over their last two Autumn Nations Series 2022 matches.
  • The Wallabies have won every historical game against Italy.

What Are Some Italy vs Australia Betting Tips?

  • Odds of 1.12 may seem short. A handicap bet on Australia to win (-13.5 points) at 1.64 may be more intriguing to you.
  • If you want to stretch the odds of winning, consider an accumulator with all of the other games this weekend.

Australia to Win!

✒️ Steven Brown - International Sports Writer and Tipster

Steven Brown profile picture

This Italy vs Australia prediction was written by Steven Brown.

Steven is an internationally revered rugby coach and sports writer. His insight with his predictions comes from his rugby coaching qualifications, successes coaching youth and men's teams in both hemispheres, and from analytical research into world rugby.