Galway vs Derry Prediction | All-Ireland Football

galway-v-derry-logo galway-v-derry-logo
TournamentAll-Ireland Senior Football Championship
TimetableSaturday 18th May at 17:30 GMT
PredictionDerry To Win!
OddsDerry to Win @ 1.80
Bookmaker888 Sport
Derry To Win!
The best odds
1.
888 Sport
Odds : 1.80
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Leo​Vegas
Odds : 1.80
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Boyle​Sports
Odds : 1.80
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Gaelic football’s All-Ireland Championship gets underway in earnest this weekend, as two of the outright favourites go toe-to-toe in the opening Group 1 clash. Derry will start as favourites against Galway at the Pearse Stadium, despite their shock quarterfinal defeat to Donegal in the quarterfinals of the Ulster Championship.

Conversely, Galway edged provincial rivals Mayo to claim the Connacht Championship but will need to improve on a National League Division 1 campaign that saw them finish seven points behind champions Derry. But who do I think will win here, and what odds can you get from Ireland’s best betting sites

🏆 Galway vs Derry All-Ireland Championship Prediction

If you remove their surprise last eight defeat to Donegal in the Ulster Championship, it has been a stellar 2024 for Derry so far. Not only did they top Allianz Division 1 with six wins from seven matches, but ‘The Oak Leaf County’ also outlasted rivals Dublin in an epic divisional final, eventually prevailing 3-1 after a tense penalty shootout at Croke Park.

As for Galway, they ultimately finished fifth in Division 1 of the National League, just two points above Roscommon in the final relegation spot. They lost four of their seven matches in total, including a five-point defeat at home to Derry on February 25th. Mickey Harte’s men struck three goals to one at the Pearse Stadium, while Galway converted a paltry 12 of the 28 scoring chances they created during the 70 minutes (43%).

‘The Tribesmen’ were also without a litany of first teamers against Derry, including Liam Silke, Paul Conroy, Shane Walsh and influential forward Damien Comer. However, all but one of these players (McDaid) featured for Galway in their provincial final win against Mayo, while both Walsh and Comer earned All-Stars in 2022 as they powered their side to the All-Ireland final.

Clearly, Galway have the individual quality to trouble Derry, while the Oak Leaf’s high press was exposed by Donegal’s superb long kick-out routine in the Ulster last eight. Keeper Odhran Lynch was left in no-man’s land for three of Donegal’s four goals in the Ulster quarters, and it has yet to be seen whether coach Harte will adjust his tactics this weekend.

I suspect that he will, not least to account for the fact that Galway may replicate Donegal’s tactics in front of their own fans. This flexibility could prove crucial, as could the contribution of full forward Shane McGuigan, who shot 2-40 during the National League regular season and 1-4 in the divisional final win. Overall, I’m picking Derry to edge a close and potentially thrilling match here and record their first ever All-Ireland win over Galway.

My Prediction: 🏆Derry to win!

💯 Galway vs Derry All-Ireland Championship Odds

There are plenty of football betting markets available ahead of the clash between Galway and Derry, including picking the match winner (or result after 70 minutes). You can also engage in winning margin and handicap betting, while wagering on the total number of points that will be scored in the game is also enduringly popular. Player prop markets also offer value here, especially if you want to predict the first, last or anytime goal scorers.

Galway vs Derry: Match Winner

If you want to back Galway to defeat Derry at the Pearse Stadium, you can do so at an average price of 2.38. This implies a 42.01% probability of a home win. Conversely, you can bet on Oak Leaf County at around 1.80, suggesting that Galway have a 55.55% chance of recording their second competitive win against Galway in 2024. The draw is priced at around 7.50, which implies just a 13.33% probability of the match ending tied after 70 minutes. This is the statistically least likely outcome, which makes sense given that just one of the 19 competitive matches played by both sides in 2024 have ended in a draw.

Galway to Win 2.35 2.38 2.50 2.35 2.44
Derry to Win 1.80 1.80 1.73 1.80 1.77
Draw 8.00 7.50 7.50 8.00 10.00

✔️ Galway vs Derry - Betting Tips

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Although Derry are the pre-game favourites here, it’s interesting to note that they’ve never beaten the Tribesman in official All-Ireland competition. So, navigating the win market may prove difficult here, although you can look to create further value by exploring different markets and building combination wagers. Here are some betting tips to keep in mind.

  • Tip 1: Back Over 33.5 Points Being Scored in the Game: Derry’s seven regular season matches in the National League produced 238 points in total, at a rate of 34.00 per game. Although Galway’s league campaign saw less action in the attacking third (their matches yielded 203 points at a rate of 29.00 per game), their three provincial encounters produced 106 points at an average of 35.3 per 70 minutes. Derry’s high pressing game was also exposed in their Ulster defeat to Donegal, so get on over 33.5 points being scored at a price of 1.83 with LeoVegas Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Shane McGuigan as an Anytime Goalscorer: Shane McGuigan’s tally of 2-40 in the National League was crucial to Derry’s title win, as was his goal in the divisional final. He also contributed four points (including two frees) in the defeat against Donegal, while he has struck a total of two goals and 52 additional points in just 12 All-Ireland SFC matches to date. The 26-year-old full forward is also in excellent form, so back him as an anytime goalscorer at the competitive price of 3.40 with BoyleSports.
  • Tip 3: Back Derry to Win by Between 1 and 3 Points: Derry’s seven NL matches were won by a combined margin by 47 points (6.71 per game), including their five-point victory over Galway at the Pearse Stadium on February 25th. However, Galway were shorn of several of their stars due to injury on that occasion, especially in the form of key attackers Shane Walsh and Damien Comer. They’re always highly competitive at home too, so get on Derry to win by a nominal margin of between 1 and 3 points at the enhanced price of 3.30 with BoyleSports.
  • This is an excellent use of any free bets that you may have.

1️⃣ Galway Update

Galway put their disappointing Allianz Division 1 campaign behind them in the Connacht Championship, thrashing London by 27 points with a five-goal display before edging Sligo 1-13 to 0-14 in the last four. The Tribesmen then defeated bitter provincial rivals Mayo by a single point at the Pearse Stadium, claiming their third consecutive Connacht title in front of an impassioned home crowd. Right-corner forward Robert Finnerty struck 1-17 in three impressive provincial appearances this year, although it was goalkeeper Connor Gleeson’s 50-metre free in the sixth minute of stoppage time against Mayo that ultimately secured yet another crown for Galway.

Last 5 Games
Galway 0-16 Mayo 0-15 05.05.24 Connacht Senior Football Championship
Sligo 0-14 Galway 1-13 20.04.24 Connacht Senior Football Championship
London 0-9 Galway 5-21 06.04.24 Connacht Senior Football Championship
Kerry 0-15 Galway 1-10 24.03.24 Allianz Football League Roinn 1
Galway 0-14 Dublin 0-22 16.03.24 Allianz Football League Roinn 1

As many as 14 players missed National League action for Galway this year, with as many as six still absent at the beginning of April. However, most of these absentees returned to fitness ahead of the Connacht final against Mayo, with midfielder Cillian McDaid the only player still sidelined as he recovers from a groin injury.

Player Reason
Cillian McDaid Groin Injury

2️⃣ Derry Update

Derry haven’t played competitively for nearly a month in the wake of their shock three-point loss to Donegal in the Ulster quarterfinals, with this defeat snapping a three-match winning run for the Oak Leaf County. Overall, Derry have lost just two of their nine competitive matches in 2024, with defending All-Ireland champions Dublin the only other side to defeat them in the National League. Even then, Pádraic Joyce’s men were able to avenge this loss in the divisional final. They also beat the mighty Kerry in the opening round of NL fixtures, stunning the All-Ireland second favourites at a capacity Austin Stack Park.

Last 5 Games
Derry 0-17 Donegal 4-11 20.04.24Ulster Senior Football Championship
Dublin 2-21 (1) Derry 3-18 (3) 31.03.24Allianz Football League Roinn 1 - Final
Derry 2-19 Roscommon 1-9 24.03.24Allianz Football League Roinn 1
Mayo 2-13 Derry 3-15 17.03.24Allianz Football League Roinn 1
Derry 1-11 Dublin 1-16 02.03.24 Allianz Football League Roinn 1

Derry defender Padraig McGrogan remains sidelined for the remainder of the season, after rupturing a cruciate ligament in his right knee shortly after the defeat against Donegal. He will undergo surgery next month. Otherwise, Derry should largely be at full strength and fresh ahead of their trip to Galway this weekend.

Player Reason
Padraig McGrogan Knee Injury

👕 Galway vs Derry- Potential Lineups

Pos. Galway6-2-6 Derry6-2-6 Pos.
Goalkeeper C. Gleeson O. Lynch Goalkeeper
Right Corner-Back J. McGrath C. McCluskey Right Corner-Back
Half-Back S. Fitzgerald C. McKaigue Half-Back
Left Corner-Back J. Glynn D. Baker Left Corner-Back
Right Half-Back D. McHugh C. Doherty Right Half-Back
Centre Half-Back J. Daly E. McEvoy Centre Half-Back
Left Half-Back L. Silke G. McKinless Left Half-Back
Midfielder P. Conroy C. Glass Midfielder
Midfielder S. Kelly B. Rogers Midfielder
Right Half-Forward J. Heaney E. Doherty Right Half-Forward
Centre Half-Forward J. Maher C. McFaul Centre Half-Forward
Left Half-Forward C. Darcy P. Cassidy Left Half-Forward
Right Corner-Forward R. Finnerty N. Toner Right Corner-Forward
Full Forward D. Comer S. McGuigan Full Forward
Left Corner-Forward S. Walsh L. Murray Full Forward

Derry To Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football and GAA writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and the GAA provincial championships, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.