Mayo vs Derry Prediction, Betting Tips, Odds - All-Ireland SFC

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TournamentAll Ireland Senior Football Championship
Timetable22nd June, 18:30 GMT
PredictionMayo To Win!
OddsMayo to win 1.64
BookmakerBetalright Sport
The best odds
Bet €100 and win €164 if Mayo win.

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Bet €100 and win €160 if Mayo win.

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Mayo take on Derry on Saturday 22nd June at 18:30 GMT in the preliminary Quarter Finals of the All-Ireland championship. Mayo have home advantage as they finished 2nd in their group whereas Derry finished 3rd. The match will take place in Mayo’s home ground of MacHale Park. The match will be refereed by Kildare man Brendan Cawley. The match will be available to watch worldwide on GAA Go. This is a knockout match and the losing team of this match will see their championship season end.

Mayo looks to be getting stronger as the games develop. They were unlucky not to win the Connacht Final versus Galway and since then they have been unbeaten in the ‘All Ireland’ group phase. They beat Cavan and Roscommon and looked really good in their draw versus Dublin last weekend having the lead in stoppage time before Dublin’s last minute equalising point. Derry have struggled in the championship this season losing the Ulster Quarter Final to Donegal and following it up with defeats to Galway and Armagh in the group phases. In their final group game they beat Westmeath on a scoreline of 2-7 to 0-9 but they were still not at the level that they were in the league. Mayo will come into this one as favourites but if Derry can find their level of earlier in the league then this game could go either way.

🏆 Derry vs Mayo All Ireland Championship Prediction

At the start of the year this match would have been considered a potential All Ireland semi final between two genuine All Ireland contenders. Derry’s surprisingly poor performances in the All Ireland group stage has led to this game being played as a preliminary Quarter Final. It is an interesting tie as on paper it could go either way but that is if Derry can up their performance levels. If this game was played earlier in the year it would be a toss of a coin who would win but right now Mayo look in a stronger position than Derry and are putting in stronger performances than Derry.

These two sides met earlier in the year in the Allianz National league on the 17th March also in MacHale Park just like this weekend. The difference of Derry now to Derry then can be seen in the result of this match. Derry were victorious on a scoreline of 3-15 to 2-13, a 5 point victory. It is hard to see this happening again based on current form but the fact that it is now knockout football could inspire a better performance out of Derry. There are rumours of unrest in the Derry camp and this will surely not be ideal going into the knockout phase of the championship. Mayo looked strong versus Dublin in their draw and solidified themselves as genuine All Ireland championship contenders. Derry will have to go back to basics and keep it tight but I am predicting a Mayo victory in a close game.

Verdict: Mayo to Win

Derry vs Mayo Performance Analysis

This season Derry have scored a total of 2-54 in the championship this season across 4 games. This works out as an average of 0.5-13.5 which can be rounded to an average of 1-14 per game. Mayo have scored a total of 5-102 across 6 championship matches. This works out at an average of 0.83-17 which can be rounded to an average of 1-17.

Mayo had a total of 14 turnovers lost which is possession lost by error or in the tackle versus Dublin whereas Derry have been averaging 18 turnovers per game this season. Mayo are more proficient in their scoring and are losing the ball less which is a good combination.

💯 Derry vs Mayo All Ireland Championship Odds

The odds for this one amongst the bookmakers favour Mayo slightly. Mayo are coming in at odds of around 1.64 whereas Derry are coming in at odds around 4.50. Most betting sites are expecting Mayo to win but are not taking any chances with the pricing of Derry. Mayo look stronger at this point in time than Derry do with regards to performance but Derry have not become a poor team overnight and can ignite their championship at any point. Mayo are the favourites for this one and this can be seen on the bookmakers here.

🏅 Derry vs Mayo Match Winner

The odds from the selected GAA football betting sites for the match winner can be seen below.

Mayo to Win1.601.64
Derry to Win2.702.75

✔️ Derry vs Westmeath - Betting Tips

Mayo and Derry is an intriguing prospect and here are some tips if you are unsure how the game will transpire.

Tip 1: Mayo to Win

Mayo come into this game as favourites but are still at an ok price of 1.64 with Betalright Sport. Mayo are unbeaten in the All Ireland phase and have only lost 1 out of 6 championship games this season, a 1 point Connacht Final defeat to rivals Galway. Mayo put in a very strong performance versus Dublin having the lead in stoppage time after a 69th minute 45 by Colm Reape and a 72nd minute free by Ryan O’Donoghue put Mayo ahead. Dublin equalised in the 73rd minute through Cormac Costello and this would be the final act of the game. Mayo could have very easily been victorious in this one but they will take the positives from a draw with the All Ireland favourites. Derry have only 1 victory in 4 championship games losing 3 in a row to Donegal, Galway and Armagh before eventually getting a victory last time out to Westmeath, although this game was not without its challenges and Derry struggled to get over the line. They were only a point up with 5 minutes to go before an Emmett Bradley goal sealed the victory by 4 points, 2-7 to 0-9. Mayo are putting in stronger performances than Derry are on an upward trajectory so I am picking them to be victorious in this one because of that. The best odds for a Mayo win can be seen at a price of 1.67 and if you have any free bets this will be a good one to use.

Tip 2: Mayo Handicap -1.5

I believe Mayo will get the job done on Saturday but it should be a tight game. The All Ireland championship is now in the knockout phase and this will have its challenges. Both these teams know defeat and their championship is over but a victory will send them to the All Ireland Quarter Final and potentially even beyond. The scoring average of both these teams in the championship was touched upon in the performance analysis section and we can use these to show that this game will be a tight one but that Mayo will get the job done. Mayo average 1-17 in the championship to this season point while Derry average 1-14. This would suggest that this game will be a 3 point margin of victory for Mayo. These averages are just a guide for what will potentially happen but they are a good guide in my opinion. This is a knockout game between two top teams even if Derry have shown their qualities lately so it is expected to be a tight and intriguing championship battle. Showing they believe it will be a close game, DirectionBet Sport are giving a handicap of -1.5 for Mayo with odds of 1.80.

Tip 3: Ryan O’Donoghue to score a goal anytime

Ryan O'Donoghue has been one of the best forwards in the country this season. In the All Ireland group phase he scored 0-7 versus Dublin, 1-4 versus Roscommon and 0-7 versus Cavan for an All Ireland total of 1-18. In the Connacht championship he scored 0-6 versus Galway, 0-7 versus Roscommon and 1-13 versus New York for a Connacht championship total of 1-26. This means that in total in the championship to this point Ryan O’Donoghue has scored 2-44. O’Donoghue is in fantastic form and Derry will find it hard to keep him quiet this weekend. He is an expert at putting the ball over the bar but has also shown with his 2 goals that he is very capable of putting the ball into the net. Odds for Ryan O’Donoghue to score a goal anytime are 3.10 on Boylesports.

1️⃣ Derry Update

Last 5 Games
Derry 2-7
Westmeath 0-9
All Ireland Group 1 Round 3 Senior Football Championship
Derry 0-15
Armagh 3-17
All Ireland Group 1 Round 2 Senior Football Championship
Galway 2-14
Derry 0-15
All Ireland Group 1 Round 1 Senior Football Championship
Derry 0-17
Donegal 4-11
Ulster Football Championship - Quarter Final
Dublin 2-21
Derry 3-18
Allianz Football League Roinn 1 Final

Player Reason
Padraig McGroganKnee Injury

2️⃣ Mayo Update

Last 5 Games
Dublin 0-17
Mayo 0-17
All Ireland Group 2 Round 3 Senior Football Championship
Roscommon 1-15
Mayo 2-14
All Ireland Group 2 Round 2 Senior Football Championship
Mayo 0-20
Cavan 1-8
All Ireland Group 2 Round 1 Senior Football Championship
Galway 0-16
Mayo 0-15
Connacht Football Championship - Final
Roscommon 0-13
Mayo 1-15
Connacht Football Championship - Semi Final

Player Reason
Eoghan McLaughlinUnknown Injury(doubt)
Paddy DurcanLeg Injury

👕Derry vs Mayo - Potential Lineups

Goalkeeper O. Lynch C. Reape Goalkeeper
Right Corner-Back C. McCluskey J. Coyne Right Corner-Back
Full-Back C. McKaigue D. McBrien Full-Back
Left Corner-Back E. McEvoy D. McHugh Left Corner-Back
Right Half-Back E. Bradley S. Callinan Right Half-Back
Centre Half-Back G. McKinless S. Coen Centre Half-Back
Left Half-Back C. Doherty C. Loftus Left Half-Back
Midfielder C. Glass J. Carney Midfielder
Midfielder B. Rodgers M. Ruane Midfielder
Right Half-Forward E. Doherty T. Conroy Right Half-Forward
Centre Half-Forward C. McFaul D. McHale Centre Half-Forward
Left Half-Forward P. Cassidy J. Flynn Left Half-Forward
Right Corner-Forward N. Toner A. O’Shea Right Corner-Forward
Full Forward S. McGuigan C. O’Connor Full Forward
Left Corner-Forward L. Murray R. O’Donoghue Left Corner Forward

✒️ Jack Guing – Expert Tipster

I am Jack Guing and I am 23 years old and hail from County Offaly in Ireland. I hold a bachelor’s degree in English and History from Maynooth University and a Master’s degree in Sports Performance from University of Limerick. I am passionate about sport especially performance analysis in sport.

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