Kerry vs Derry Prediction, Betting Tips, Odds - All Ireland SFC

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TournamentAll Ireland SFC
Timetable30th June, 15:15 GMT
PredictionKerry To Win!
BookmakerDirectionBet Sport
The best odds
Bet €100 and win €133 if Kerry win.

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Bet €100 and win €140 if Kerry win.

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A huge game takes place on Sunday afternoon as Munster champions Kerry take on Derry in the All-Ireland Quarter final. The match takes place in Croke Park and is part of a doubleheader, with the game being preceded by Donegal versus Louth. The match throws in at 15:15 GMT and will be refereed by Meath man David Coldrick. The match will be live on RTE 1 for Irish viewers and will be available on GAA Go for viewers outside Ireland. The match is a repeat of last year's ‘All Ireland’ semi-final, where Kerry were victorious by 2 points on a scoreline of 1-17 to 1-15. Kerry are unbeaten in the championship to this point both in the Munster championship and All Ireland group phase. They have won all 5 championship matches to this, including the Allianz League. They have won 8 games in a row, with their last defeat coming against Dublin on the 24th of February. Kerry have only suffered 2 defeats in league and championship in 12 games. Derry had a brilliant league campaign, winning Division 1, but their championship has been a mixed bag. They lost to Donegal in the Ulster Quarter final and started their All Ireland group phase with back to back defeats to Galway and Armagh. They narrowly beat Westmeath in their final group game to qualify for the preliminary Quarter final, beating Mayo on penalties to set up this intriguing match with Kerry.

🏆 Kerry vs Derry All Ireland SFC Prediction

Kerry and Derry is a very intriguing prospect this Sunday. Kerry are in red hot form. In the group phase of the All Ireland championship, they beat Monaghan by 10 points, Meath by 15 points, and Louth by 14 points, which is an average margin of victory of 13 points. They have been comfortable to this point and this is down to their performances. They showed this last time out versus Louth, a side who have also made it to the All Ireland quarter final this weekend, scoring 2-21 versus Louth, conceding only 1-10. They are scoring heavily, even against quality opposition. Derry have been a mixed bag so far in the championship. They have taken risks which were seen in the Donegal and Armagh games with goalkeeper Odhran Lynch being caught out up the pitch. This is a dangerous strategy and one that has not quite worked to this point. It does give them an extra body up the pitch, but when they make unforced errors, like in the game versus Donegal and Armagh, there is a huge chance of them conceding goals. If they make these errors again with Lynch out of the field, Kerry will no doubt punish them. They have some of the best forwards in the country in the form of David Clifford, Paudi Clifford, Paul Geaney and Sean O’Shea. Derry will need to be back to their best and limit their mistakes to deal with Kerry’s quality.

🔎 Kerry vs Derry Performance Analysis

In the All Ireland championship, to this point Kerry have scored a total of 4-63 across 3 games which is an average of 1.33-21, which can be rounded to 1-21 per game. Their lowest points total was 2-18. In their 3 group games and in the preliminary quarter final Derry have scored a total of 2-52 across 4 games, which is an average of 0.5-13, which can be rounded to 1-13. This includes the points they scored in extra time versus Mayo. The highest points total they have scored is 0-15, and they have done this in 3 of their 4 games, losing two of these and drawing the other to Mayo before winning on penalties. Their only victory in normal time in the All-Ireland came against Westmeath, where they scored 2-7. Derry looked a lot more organised last time out versus Mayo, conceding 1-12 in 90 minutes, and they will still need to improve their performance significantly to get close to Kerry, according to the analysis.

💯 Kerry vs Derry All Ireland Championship Betting Odds

Kerry are the favourites amongst the bookmakers for this one and this is not a surprise. They have been in blistering form this year, winning all 5 of their championship games to this point, with their lowest margin of victory being 3 points in their first game versus Cork. Since then they have won by 7,10,15 and 14 points. Derry have been poor in the championship this season but have been victorious in their last two games versus Westmeath and in the preliminary Quarter final versus Mayo on penalties. Kerry are the clear favourites for this one, and this can be seen on many Irish betting sites.

🏅Kerry vs Derry: Match Winner

The odds from selected GAA football betting sites can be seen below.

Kerry to Win1.331.40
Derry to Win4.003.60

✔️ Kerry vs Derry Betting Tips

Tip 1: Kerry to Win

Kerry are the favourites for this one and all signs point to their victory this Sunday. Derry were improved last weekend versus Mayo but there are still question marks surrounding them as a result of their championship season to this point. They have been hit and miss, and one of the disappointments of the championship due to the fact that they were one of the favourites to win the All Ireland championship this year. Kerry have been in blistering form and are justifying their position as one of the favourites for the All Ireland title alongside Dublin putting in quality performance and scoring heavily. No matter the opposition that is put in their way Kerry put in the same performance, they score highly averaging 1-21 in the All Ireland championship to this point. They have a magnitude of quality on their side with the Clifford brothers David and Paudi, Paul Geaney and Sean O’Shea capable of destroying any team. They have score-getters in other areas as well, with wing-back Brian O Beaglaoich scoring 0-3 last time out versus Louth. At the beginning of the year, this game had the potential to be an All Ireland final, but now Kerry look the stronger, and I think they will continue their momentum and be victorious on Sunday. The best odds for this can be found with Betalright Sport at odds of 1.40.

Tip 2: Kerry Handicap -3

This game should be a close one based on Derry’s performance last week versus Mayo. They needed a big performance and found one. They were very poor in the group stages of the All Ireland, and they had to put in a performance with limited mistakes. They showed that the way forward for the GAA is focusing on knockout football. Derry knew 1 victory would get them out of the group, but last week, they had the jeopardy of being knocked out if defeated. This being said, they will find it difficult versus Kerry. Last year in the All Ireland semi final Kerry defeated Derry by 2 points on a scoreline of 1-17 to 1-15, however, Derry were in a much stronger position at that stage last year than this year. Their performance was improved last week but is still miles away from what they need to defeat Kerry. Kerry have averaged 1-21 per game in the All Ireland championship to this point, whereas Derry have averaged 1-13. Derry have not scored higher than 0-15 whereas Kerry have not scored lower than 2-18. Kerry will need to drop off massively and Derry will need to increase their output massively to get close to Kerry. The averages point to an 8-point victory for Kerry and DirectionBet Sport are offering a -3 handicap for Kerry and if you have any free bets, it is coming in at odds of 1.75.

Tip 3: Kerry Half Time/Full Time

Derry have started games slowly so far in the championship to this point. They were behind at halftime against Armagh, Galway and Donegal and went on to lose all 3 games. They were ahead at halftime against Westmeath and Mayo, winning both games, with the latter being on penalties. They need to start strong because they are a side that plays on the counter-attack and this style is a lot more suited to defending a lead than chasing. Kerry were ahead at halftime and went on to win in all but one of their games, their Munster semi final versus Cork, where they trailed by 1 at the break. They have been ahead at halftime in their last 4 games and went on to win all 4 of these games. They will want to come out of the blocks because of the style of play Derry have. Derry are good at holding onto the lead and Kerry will be able to pick them off if they are ahead and Derry are forced to chase the game. I expect Kerry to be ahead at halftime and go on to win the game.

1️⃣ Kerry Update

Last 5 Games
Kerry 2-21
Louth 1-10
All Ireland Group 4 Round 3 Senior Football Championship
Meath 0-9
Kerry 2-18
All Ireland Group 4 Round 2 Senior Football Championship
Kerry 0-24
Monaghan 1-11
All Ireland Group 4 Round 1 Senior Football Championship
Clare 1-13
Kerry 0-23
Munster Football Championship - Final
Kerry 0-18
Cork 1-12
Munster Football Championship - Semi Final

2️⃣ Derry Update

Last 5 Games
Derry 0-15
Mayo 1-12
All Ireland Preliminary Quarter Final Senior Football Championship
Derry 2-7
Westmeath 0-9
All Ireland Group 1 Round 3 Senior Football Championship
Derry 0-15
Armagh 3-17
All Ireland Group 1 Round 2 Senior Football Championship
Galway 2-14
Derry 0-15
All Ireland Group 1 Round 1 Senior Football Championship
Derry 0-17
Donegal 4-11
Ulster Football Championship - Quarter Final
Player Reason
Padraig McGroganKnee Injury

👕 Kerry vs Derry - Potential Lineups

Goalkeeper S. Ryan O. Lynch Goalkeeper
Right Corner-Back D. Casey C. McCluskey Right Corner-Back
Full-Back J. Foley C. McKaigue Full-Back
Left Corner-Back T. O’Sullivan C. Doherty Left Corner-Back
Right Half-Back B. O’Beaglaoich C. McFaul Right Half-Back
Centre Half-Back M. Breen E. McEvoy Centre Half-Back
Left Half-Back G. White G. McKinless Left Half-Back
Midfielder D. O’Connor C. Glass Midfielder
Midfielder J. O’Connor B. Rodgers Midfielder
Right Half-Forward T. Brosnan E. Doherty Right Half-Forward
Centre Half-Forward P. Clifford E. Bradley Centre Half-Forward
Left Half-Forward C. Burke P. Cassidy Left Half-Forward
Right Corner-Forward D. Clifford N. Toner Right Corner-Forward
Full Forward S. O Shea S. McGuigan Full Forward
Left Corner-Forward P. Geaney L. Murray Left Corner Forward

✒️ Jack Guing – Expert Tipster

I am Jack Guing, a 23-year-old hailing from County Offaly in Ireland. I hold a bachelor’s degree in English and History from Maynooth University and a master’s degree in Sports Performance from the University of Limerick. I am a keen sports fan with an avid interest in GAA, soccer, and golf. My passion for performance analysis in sports offers a data-driven style to deliver informative predictions.

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