Kerry vs Louth Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds - All Ireland Football

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TournamentAll Ireland Senior Football Championship
Timetable16th June, 15:00 GMT
PredictionKerry To Win!
OddsKerry to win 1.05
BookmakerBoyleSports
Kerry To Win!
The best odds
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Kerry and Louth go head to head on Sunday 16th of June in what is both sides final game of the All Ireland group phase. Both sides are guaranteed a place in the next round of the ‘All Ireland’ but this game will decide who books their place straight into the All-Ireland Quarter final and who has to play a preliminary Quarter Final. A win or a draw for Kerry books their place straight into the Quarter final whereas only a win for Louth will give them 1st place and a spot in the All Ireland Quarter Finals. The match takes place at a neutral venue, like all the group matches this weekend with this one taking place in O’Moore Park Portlaoise at 3pm.

The match will not be broadcast on either RTE or GAA Go so the only way to watch this match is to attend it. Something interesting to note with this match is that it will be refereed by Conor Lane, from Cork. This is interesting as Cork are near neighbours and rivals of Kerry and there may be a conflict of interest there, but it is unlikely to have any effect on the outcome of the match as Kerry are heavy favourites and could in fact win comfortably.

🏆 Kerry vs Louth All Ireland Championship Prediction

Kerry have been free scoring so far in this years championship scoring 2-83 across 4 games in both the Munster championship and All Ireland championship, an average of 0.5-20.75, which can be rounded to an average of 1-21 per game. This would be hard for any team to deal with, only Dublin can better this scoring average with them averaging 3-19 per game in the Leinster Championship and All Ireland championship. In the Leinster and All Ireland Championships, Louth have scored a combined 11-59 across 5 games which is an average of 2.2-11.8 which can be rounded to 2-12. Kerry came up against Cork and Clare in the Munster championship both of which are in the All Ireland phase whereas Louth came up against Wexford and Kildare who are in the secondary Tailteann cup before losing to Dublin.

Kerry have come up against teams of a higher standard than Louth and average 24 points a game to Louth’s 18. Louth will try to keep this one tight like they did in the Leinster final versus Dublin where they lost by 4 and will hope to hit Kerry on the counter attack like they did Dublin, scoring 2-12 versus Dublin. Kerry have a lot of quality forwards especially David Clifford, Paudi Clifford, Paul Geaney and Sean O’Shea and if Louth sit in and defend in numbers these players will not be shy of shooting from distance and will be able to keep the scoreboard ticking over in Kerry’s favour.

Verdict: Kerry to Win

Kerry vs Louth Performance Analysis

The only team in the country so far that is of the standard of Kerry is probably Dublin so if we are looking at Louth statistically, we must look at how they fared versus Dublin. In the Leinster Final Louth had 15 turnovers lost, which is possession lost in the tackle and also through errors, compared to Dublin’s 10 on that day. Louth took 19 shots that day scoring 14, which is a shot efficiency of 73%.

Of these 19 shots, 14 were from play with 9 scores coming from these 14 shots which is an efficiency of 64%, a high standard. Last time out versus Meath Kerry had 14 turnovers lost and had a total of 39 shots, scoring 20, an efficiency of 51%. They had 33 shots from play scoring 16, an efficiency of 48%. Kerry had such a large quantity of shots they could afford to be less efficient whereas Louth had to be very clinical against Dublin and would need a repeat effort to get even close to Kerry.

💯 Kerry vs Louth All Ireland Championship Odds

Kerry are the overwhelming favourites for this one with the bookmakers not giving Louth any chance to get the shock victory in Portlaoise on Sunday. Louth are coming in at odds at around 10.00 whereas Kerry are coming in at odds of around 1.03. Kerry have been scoring heavily in this year’s championship and based on these odds the bookmakers expect this trend to continue. There are large odds on a draw too with the bookmakers having a draw at around odds of 19.00.

Both sides are already qualified and Louth would have taken a preliminary quarter final before the group phase began so they may not be too pushed about this one and trying to claim top spot and may save themselves for the extra game they would have to play with the preliminary quarter finals. This shows the flaw in the current group phase layout with 3 out of 4 teams qualifying through each group and a lot of the final round games having no jeopardy of elimination from the championship. Kerry are the clear favourites for this one and this can be seen on the bookmakers here betting sites.

Kerry vs Louth Match Winner

We have been able to compile a list of odds from some of the best GAA football betting sites for the match winner as can be seen below:

Result
Kerry to Win1.021.051.031.051.05
Louth to Win9.509.0011.0010.0011.00
Draw16.0021.0019.0017.0020.00

✔️ Kerry vs Louth Betting Tips

Kerry and Louth is an intriguing prospect and here are some tips if you are unsure how the game will transpire. If you have one or more free bets here are some tips free bets.

Tip 1: Kerry Handicap -9.5

The scoring averages of both sides in the championship was touched upon earlier with Kerry averaging 1-21 per game while Louth averaged 2-12 per game. This number for Louth is slightly skewed as they scored 4-10 versus Wexford in the Leinster Quarter Final, a team who is not of the same standard as the teams Kerry played in Munster such as Cork and Clare. If we just look at the All Ireland group phase to this point Kerry have scored 2-42 across two games while Louth have scored 5-20. Kerry average 1-21 while Louth average 2.5-10 or 3-10. Kerry will more than likely score over 20 points based on these statistics while Louth will score around 10 points based on previous games so Louth will need goals to stay in this game. Kerry have been threatening goals all year and could cancel out Louth’s goals with goals of their own. Louth will more than likely take their foot off the gas because they are already through to at least the preliminary quarter final which they no doubt would have taken at the start of the year so expect Kerry to be comfortable in this one.

Tip 2: Kerry to score first score

Kerry have only failed to score first in this year’s championship on one occasion and that was in their first championship encounter versus Cork back in April. They have scored first in each of their last 3 games versus Clare, Monaghan and Meath. Louth themselves are strong starters scoring first in 4 out of their 5 games only failing to score first versus Meath in Round 1 of group 4. There is a lot of mitigating factors that will decide who scores first but Kerry are a team full of quality all around the pitch and if they win the throw up and get the ball into their forwards there is no doubt that either Geaney, O’Shea or the Clifford brothers will put the ball over the bar. The odds for Kerry to score first are reasonable at 1.40 but it is a risk as your bet will either be successful very quickly or will be over very quickly.

Tip 3: Over 2.5 goals

Kerry have spent much of the championship scoring lots of points but not hitting the back of the net as much as they wanted. In their four championship games they have failed to score a goal in 3 of them with their only goals coming against Meath last time out where they scored 2. They have had the chances though, especially in round 1 versus Monaghan where they missed a couple of really good goal chances in a game where they scored 0-24 winning comfortably. Louth have scored goals in all but 1 of their championship matches scoring 4 goals versus Wexford, 2 versus Dublin, 3 versus Louth and 2 versus Monaghan only failing to score a goal versus Kildare. Across these 5 championship games Louth have conceded 3 goals including 2 last time out versus Monaghan. Kerry have conceded 3 goals in 4 championship games only keeping a clean sheet last time out versus Meath. Louth tend to score goals and Kerry look like scoring goals every time they play so I would expect a few goals in this one on Sunday.

1️⃣ Kerry All Ireland SFC Update

Last 5 Games
Meath 0-9
Kerry 2-18
02.06.24
All Ireland Group 4 Round 2 Senior Football Championship
Kerry 0-24
Monaghan 1-11
18.05.24
All Ireland Group 4 Round 1 Senior Football Championship
Clare 1-13
Kerry 0-23
05.05.24
Munster Football Championship - Final
Kerry 0-18
Cork 1-12
20.04.24
Munster Football Championship - Semi Final
Kerry 0-15
Galway 1-10
24.03.24
Allianz Football League Roinn 1

2️⃣ Louth All Ireland SFC Update

Last 5 Games
Monaghan 2-10
Louth 2-10
02.06.24
All Ireland Group 4 Round 2 Senior Football Championship
Louth 3-10
Meath 0-9
25.05.24
All Ireland Group 4 Round 1 Senior Football Championship
Dublin 1-19
Louth 2-12
12.05.24
Leinster Football Championship - Final
Kildare 0-13
Louth 0-17
28.04.24
Leinster Football Championship - Semi Final
Louth 4-10
Wexford 0-15
14.04.24
Leinster Football Championship - Quarter Final

👕Kerry vs Louth- Potential Lineups

Pos.Kerry
6-2-6
Louth
6-2-6
Pos.
Goalkeeper S. Ryan N. McDonnell Goalkeeper
Right Corner-Back D. Casey D. McKenny Right Corner-Back
Full-Back J. Foley D. Corcoran Full-Back
Left Corner-Back T. O’Sullivan P. Lynch Left Corner-Back
Right Half-Back B. O’Beaglaoich C. McKeever Right Half-Back
Centre Half-Back M. Breen A. Williams Centre Half-Back
Left Half-Back G. White C. Lennon Left Half-Back
Midfielder D. O’Connor T. Durnin Midfielder
Midfielder J. O’Connor B. Duffy Midfielder
Right Half-Forward T. Brosnan N. Sharkey Right Half-Forward
Centre Half-Forward P. Clifford C. Keenan Centre Half-Forward
Left Half-Forward C. Burke C. Grimes Left Half-Forward
Right Corner-Forward D. Clifford R. Burns Right Corner-Forward
Full Forward S. O Shea S. Mulroy Full Forward
Left Corner-Forward P. Geaney C. Downey Left Corner Forward

Kerry To Win!

✒️ Jack Guing – Expert Tipster

I am Jack Guing and I am 23 years old and hail from County Offaly in Ireland. I hold a bachelor’s degree in English and History from Maynooth University and a Master’s degree in Sports Performance from University of Limerick. I am passionate about sport especially performance analysis in sport.

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