F1 Australian Grand Prix Prediction, Tips & Odds 2026
| Timetable | 8th March, 04:00 GMT |
| Prediction | George Russell To Win |
| Odds | 3.15 |
The new Formula 1 2026 season will start on Friday, March 6th, when the teams and their drivers arrive in Melbourne for the Australian Grand Prix.
The race is hotly anticipated, with both Ferrari and Mercedes performing well in Bahrain testing and McLaren’s revamped W17 around 3.2 seconds slower than its 2025 counterpart. Ferrari were particularly rapid in Bahrain, with Charles Leclerc producing the fastest lap time on the final day of testing.
Mercedes’ increased speed and power is reflected by the early Australian GP odds, which make George Russell the favourite and price his teammate Kimi Antonelli at 9.00.
2025 winner and defending champion Lando Norris is priced at a distant 10.00 by the best Irish online bookmarkers. Below, you can check out the latest race odds in full and read our expert Australian Grand Prix prediction.
💡 Australian Grand Prix - Key Points
- Ferrari are Historically Dominant in Australia: In addition to being the best-performing constructors in pre-season, Ferrari have won the most Australian GPs in history (14). This includes two of the previous four races, with Carlos Sainz Jr. delivering the team’s most recent victory in 2024.
- A Mid-Length Circuit With Minimal Overtaking: The track at Albert Park measures 5.278km (3.280 miles) and is the 15th longest among all active circuits. Despite changes made in late 2021, the track still sees a relatively small number of overtakes, averaging just 31.5 per race since 2017.
- There’s No Dominant Driver in Australia: The last six iterations of the Australian Grand Prix have all produced different winners, including 2025 victor Lando Norris. The only active driver with multiple wins in Melbourne is Lewis Hamilton (two), with the Brit’s last triumph coming in 2015.
🌐 Australian Grand Prix Prediction
Mercedes’ impressive power in pre-season has been a source of controversy, with the constructor able to increase their compression ratios from the permitted 16:1 to 18:1 at higher temperatures.
This translates into a gain of around ~20 brake horsepower, and exposes a loophole in terms of how and when the compression ratio is measured. Amid pressure from Ferrari, Red Bull and Honda, the FIA has agreed to change the way in which compression ratios will be measured, with the new guidelines set to be introduced on June 1st.
However, this means that Mercedes will be able to leverage their advantage for seven races, starting with the Australian Grand Prix. This will benefit George Russell, who finished fourth in the 2025 Drivers’ Championship and amassed a career high of 319 points.
The Brit won twice and earned nine podium finishes from 24 starts (37.5%), while he came third in Melbourne and only trailed winner Norris by +8.481 seconds. His racecraft was evident at Albert Park and throughout the season, and he would have fared even better in 2025 were it not for Mercedes’ previous issues with overheating and tyre degradation.
Russell will face stiff competition from Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, who won in Melbourne in 2022 and has been blisteringly quick during testing. However, the 28-year-old Briton is peaking and well placed to drive home Mercedes’ clear competitive advantage, and we’re picking Russell to win the Australian GP in 2026.
OUR PREDICTION: 👑 GEORGE RUSSELL TO WIN 👑
Australian Grand Prix Betting Odds
The current Australian Grand Prix betting odds make Russell the clear favourite, with DirectionBet pricing a win for the Briton at 3.15. These odds imply a 31.7% probability of the Mercedes driver taking the chequered flag.
Red Bull’s Max Verstappen is priced at 4.30 with the same bookmaker, so the Dutchman (who won the final three races in 2025) has a 23.2% chance of success in Melbourne. Charles Leclerc is intriguingly priced at 5.00, which implies just a 20.0% probability of victory for the Frenchman.
However, these odds may offer enhanced value given the driver’s preseason form and Ferrari’s raw speed, with Leclerc producing the fastest overall lap time across all three Bahrain test sessions (1:31:992).
🏁 Albert Park, Melbourne - Overview
Albert Park was redesigned after the postponement of the 2021 Australian Grand Prix, with several of the track’s corners reprofiled. The slow chicane on the back section was also removed, in order to help drivers increase speed in the build-up to turn 11.
Turns 11 and 12 were tightened significantly too, creating a huge challenge for drivers who must navigate them at speed. This chicane is one of several sports on the circuit that demands an efficient chassis and reactive front end.
Overall, Melbourne is home to one of the fastest tracks on the F1 calendar, although its recent reconfiguration has done little to increase the historically low rate of overtaking. So, qualification will be key here, particularly if Russell or Leclerc are able to secure pole.
Three of the last four Australian GP victors have triumphed from pole position, while Carlos Sainz Jr. won from second on the grid in 2024.
🔎 Race Details
There are three practice sessions scheduled prior to the Australian GP, the first of which will take place on Friday, 6th March at 01:30 GMT. Qualifying is scheduled for Saturday 7th March at 05:00 GMT, before the race proper commences on Sunday, 8th March at 04:00 GMT.
You can tune in to watch the race on Sky Sports F1, while all practice and qualifying sessions will also be available via Sky Sports Main event. If you don’t have a Sky Sports subscription, you can catch extended highlights on Channel 4 in Ireland.
✔️ Betting on the Australian Grand Prix - Our Conclusion
Both our prediction and the current Australian Grand Prix betting definitely favours George Russell, with this reflecting Mercedes’ obvious power advantage. However, Charles Leclerc’s pace was also impressive during Bahrain testing, while his teammate Lewis Hamilton is a two-time winner in Melbourne.
Ultimately, picking a winner can prove challenging in what’s likely to be an open and competitive race, so you may want to consider some alternative F1 Australian GP betting markets. Leclerc definitely offers solid value as a podium finisher, at competitive odds of 1.83 with DirectionBet.
These odds carry an implied probability of 54.6%, but the actual probability may be higher given Ferrari’s current pace and the rapid nature of the Albert Park Circuit. If you're in the market for a higher risk pick, consider backing Kimi Antonelli.
The 19-year-old Italian will also benefit from Mercedes’ competitive edge, while he set the fastest time during the second Bahrain test in preseason. He’s priced at 9.00 to win and 3.00 to claim a podium finish, and Antonelli will have an excellent chance if he qualifies well.
You can also mitigate this risk by making use of any free bet offers that you have access to online.
Lewis Humphries
A business and iGaming copywriter from the UK, who has a passion for sports betting and remote casino betting. He's reviewed some of the world's leading casino platforms while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.