Mexico City Grand Prix Prediction, Tips & Odds 2024

🗝️ Mexico City Grand Prix - Key Points

• Verstappen’s third place finish and victory in the sprint race at the Circuit of the Americas saw the Dutchman increase his Drivers’ Championship lead to 57 points. His closest rival Lando Norris now faces an uphill task to win the title, with just five races and 146 points left to play for.
• Ferrari’s impressive one-two in Austin saw them move to within 48 points of McLaren at the top of the F1 Constructors’ Championship. Red Bull sit second and a paltry 40 points off the lead, so the race to finish as the leading constructor in 2024 remains wide open.
• Despite enjoying a relatively solid weekend, Verstappen was slower than any other driver who finished in the top six at the Circuit of the Americas. This includes both McLaren and Ferrari drivers, and this relative lack of speed could prove problematic in the weeks ahead.

💸 Mexico City Grand Prix Betting Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have published their odds ahead of the Mexico Grand Prix in 2024, and appear to be hedging their bets in the win market. In fact, both Verstappen and US Grand Prix winner Charles Leclerc can be backed to prevail at around 3.65, implying a 27.39% probability of either triumphing in Mexico City.

What’s more, Lando Norris is priced at around 3.70 to record his fourth victory of the season at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. These odds imply a 27.02% probably of this outcome occurring, so there’s virtually nothing to choose between the three pre-race favourites.

Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz Jr has also seen his odds shorten to 7.60 this week, after the Spaniard finished second in Austin and just +8.562 seconds behind teammate Leclerc. From a statistical perspective, he has a 13.15% chance of winning in Mexico, and he should be competitive on a track where McLaren’s recent speed advantage will be somewhat nullified.

Of course, there have been seven(07) separate GP winners in the 2024 campaign, and I’m expecting another close and unpredictable race here. Here’s an at-a-glance summary of the very latest Mexico City GP betting odds:

Pilot
Charles Leclerc	3.80	3.60	3.60	3.60
Max Verstappen	3.80	3.65	3.65	3.65
Lando Norris	3.80	3.70	3.70	3.70
Carlos Sainz Jnr	8.00	8.15	7.60	7.60
Oscar Piastri	8.00	8.95	9.60	9.60
George Russell	19.00	18.30	18.00	18.00

You can read our bookmaker reviews to learn more about your favorite sportsbooks.

🏁 Circuit Breakdown and Race Condition

The Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez was built in 1959, after the father of Mexico’s most famous racing brothers (Ricardo and Pedro Rodriguez) encouraged then President Adolfo Lopez Mateo to construct a racetrack. This circuit was designed to utilise internal roads at the Magdalena Mixiuhca sports park, with the first F1 race taking place in 1963.

This race was won by the legendary Jim Clark, who also took the most pole positions at the track (four). The circuit measures 4.304km and is one of the smallest on the F1 calendar, while it has the distinction of being located at very high altitude (2,240 metres above the sea). This tends to have a large effect on car cooling and engine performance and often results in a marked lack of downforce.

As a low downforce track, the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez tends to offer less grip (particularly when entering high speed corners). So, the speed advantage boasted by McLaren in recent weeks may not be as telling here, creating a more even playing field and potentially suiting Verstappen’s seemingly improved Red Bull. There are also 17 corners at the track, while the longest straight is the run down to turn one.

Sector Two of the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez circuit is particularly turn-heavy, demanding a high level of driving skill and effective braking techniques. Drivers must navigate a series of challenging corners, which can significantly affect their lap times. In addition to driving finesse, tire management is crucial in Mexico City due to the altitude and track conditions, making the strategies employed by each team pivotal in determining the race outcome.

ℹ️ Our Mexico City Grand Prix Betting Tips

If you’re going to bet on the Mexican Grand Prix, it’s important to compare the pre-race odds and unique track dynamics. However, this race is incredibly difficult to call and features a number of potential winners, so I’ve prepared some Mexican Grand Prix betting tips to help you identify the best value markets and picks! This will help you to get the most from your bankroll or any available free bets on your account.

• Race Winner – Max Verstappen: Red Bull made some crucial upgrades to the RB20 ahead of Austin, helping Verstappen to win the sprint race and come within a whisker of securing pole position. The speed differential between Red Bull and McLaren certainly seems to have diminished to some degree, while it can be argued that the low downforce Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez track will be more suited to the RB20. Of course, the Dutchman is also an incredibly talented driver who’s renowned for his ability to break optimally and stabilise his car, so he may have a competitive advantage in Mexico (where he has won five of the last six races since 2017). You can back him to end his nine-racing losing streak here at a price of 3.80 with Directionbet Sport.
• Winning Constructor – Red Bull: If you agree with me that Verstappen will prevail here (or are tipping his teammate Sergio Perez to win his home Grand Prix), there’s also value in backing Red Bull to be the winning constructor. You can get on this at the relatively competitive price of 3.40 with Goldenbet Sports, which arguably overlooks the RB20’s efficiency when navigating high speed corners and tracks with a number of challenging turns. As I’ve touched on, the team also made some significant improvements prior to Austin, and these could well bear further fruit this weekend.
• Fastest Lap Time – Lando Norris: Prior to Austin, Lando Norris had leveraged the raw speed of his McLaren to record the fastest lap in three of his previous four races. Although Esteban Ocon earned this honour in the US Grand Prix, Norris was still the fourth fastest driver overall and only 0.349 seconds slower than the Alpine driver. Norris also started in pole position at the Circuit of the Americas, leading the pack for the fourth time in five races. His McLaren will relish the opening straight in Mexico City too, so consider backing Norris to record the fastest lap during the race at a price of 3.50 with LegendPlay Sports.