2026 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix Prediction, Preview & Odds
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| Timetable | Sunday, 24th May, 21:00 GMT |
| Prediction | George Russell To Win! |
| Odds | 3.25 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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The 2026 Formula 1 season continues with the Canadian Grand Prix on Sunday, May 24th. Mercedes’ driver Kimi Antonelli has won three successive races to storm 20 points ahead of team mate George Russell, who triumphed in the season’s opener in Australia.
The Italian is the narrow favourite to prevail again ahead of Russell at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, although McLaren have also been increasingly competitive and earned three podium finishes in the last two races. We’ll preview the event in more detail below, while offering our own Canadian Grand Prix prediction.
📋 Canadian Grand Prix - Key Points
- Heralding Mercedes’ Recent Run of Success: Although Mercedes have recorded only five victories in the Canadian Grand Prix, all of them have come within the last 11 years. Lewis Hamilton secured four wins for the constructor between 2015 and 2019, while George Russell won a thrilling race in 2024.
- Hamilton Has the Joint-Most Victories in Canada: Lewis Hamilton shares the record for the most Canadian Grand Prix wins with Michael Schumacher, having triumphed seven times. Max Verstappen has won at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve on three occasions, claiming consecutive victories between 2022 and 2024.
- The Canadian Grand Prix Has a Low Average for Overtakes: Since 2017, the Canadian Grand Prix has averaged just 26.8 overtakes per race. The 2023 edition produced only 20 overtakes, the lowest total of that season. However, this figure increased to 83 in 2024.
💨Canadian Grand Prix Prediction
Mercedes have dominated since the start of the 2026 Formula 1 campaign, claiming four victories and six podiums in just four outings. However, McLaren have been increasingly competitive since a disappointing showing in China, with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri claiming second and third last time out in Miami.
Interestingly, McLaren benefitted from significant vehicle upgrades at the Miami International Autodrome, while Mercedes consciously withheld their own package of improvements with the Canadian GP in mind. Despite this, Antonelli still prevailed from Norris by +3.264 seconds, sending an ominous statement ahead of the trip to Montreal.
So, although we should see a close and keenly contested race at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, Antonelli and Russell remain the most likely winners. Russell certainly has form in Montreal, claiming a dominant pole in 2025 before winning the race proper by +0.288 seconds from Red Bull’s Max Verstappen.
Russell claimed pole position ahead of the 2024 race, before finishing third and just +4.317 behind a dominant Verstappen. The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is also a low-downforce circuit with long straights and relatively few turns, and this should suit Mercedes’s obvious power advantage. So, our F1 Canadian GP prediction is that George Russell will win in Montreal for the second successive year.
OUR PREDICTION: 🏆 GEORGE RUSSELL TO WIN🏆
💯 Canadian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Across the best online bookmarkers in Ireland, Antonelli is the Canadian GP favourite at an average price of 2.77. These odds imply a 36.1% win probability for the Italian, and reflects his dominant performances in the previous three races.
George Russell can be backed at around 3.15, suggesting that he has a 31.7% chance of triumphing in Montreal. These odds appear to offer genuine value, especially given the Brit’s superb qualifying performance and victory at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in 2025.
Below, you’ll find the latest Canadian F1 grand prix odds from the operators featured in our detailed bookmaker reviews.
🏎️ Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve - Overview
The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is the seventh-shortest active F1 track, measuring just 4.361 km. This is also a relatively fast, low-downforce circuit with just 14 turns, with only two current tracks featuring fewer corners for drivers to navigate.
This circuit is very quick out of the corners, although there’s a handful of heavy-breaking chicanes that test vehicle performance. Then there’s the Notre-Dame hairpin curve at Turn 10, which can be approached via various lines and potentially create overtaking opportunities for drivers.
Overall, this track suits high performance and powerful cars, while the relative lack of overtaking means that pole setters have a distinct advantage from the front of the grid.
🏁 Betting on the Canadian Grand Prix - Our Conclusion
Although the current Canadian GP betting odds broadly favour Kimi Antonelli, we’re predicting a win for his teammate George Russell. Overall, the F1 Montreal odds imply a 67.8% combined implied probability that one of these two drivers will triumph at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve.
In terms of alternative Canadian Grand Prix betting tips, Max Verstappen also offers value for a podium finish at 2.50 with LiveScoreBet. In addition to his three career wins in Montreal, the Dutchman also placed second here in 2025 and will be driving an improved Red Bull car that typically performs well on low-downforce tracks.
If you’re looking for a slightly higher risk market or want to make use of any free bet offers, consider backing Lewis Hamilton for a podium finish at odds of 5.50. Remember, he has won seven times in Montreal and managed to place third in the Chinese GP on March 15th.
You can also bet on the safety car being deployed at odds of 1.30 with LiveScoreBet. This has occurred in each of the last four Canadian GPs, while there’s an 83% probability of it happening overall.
Lewis Humphries
A business and iGaming copywriter from the UK, who has a passion for sports betting and remote casino betting. He's reviewed some of the world's leading casino platforms while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.