United States Grand Prix Prediction, Betting Odds & Tips 2025
| Timetable | Sunday, 19th October, 20:00 GMT |
| Prediction | Max Verstappen to Win! |
| Odds | 3.00 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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The 2025 Formula 1 Championship took another twist last weekend, as McLaren went winless for a third consecutive race. Tensions between Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris reached fever pitch after the Brit slid into the Australian at the first corner in Singapore.
Norris ultimately finished third and Piastri fourth at Marina Bay, with McLaren not requiring them to swap positions despite the collision. Piastri now leads the Drivers' Championship by just 22 points ahead of the US Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas on October 19th. But what’s our US Grand Prix prediction, and who are the initial F1 US Grand Prix betting odds favouring?
📋 US Grand Prix – Key Points
- One of the Most Iconic F1 Races: The US Grand Prix has been a staple of the modern F1 calendar since 2012, when it debuted at the Circuit of the Americas in Texas. However, the first ever US Grand Prix took place in Savannah in 1908, long before it became part of the official Formula 1 Championship. The race has been held 53 times in total across 11 different venues.
- Max Verstappen’s Superb Run in Austin: Max Verstappen has been consistently dominant in Austin, recording six successive podium finishes at the Circuit of the Americas. This streak includes three consecutive victories between 2021 and 2023. He also placed third, finishing +19.412 seconds behind the winner, Charles Leclerc, last year.
- Red Bull and Ferrari Dominance: Although Mercedes has claimed the most US Grand Prix wins since the race returned to the Circuit of the Americas in 2012 (five), Red Bull or Ferrari have triumphed in five of the previous six outings. Red Bull’s advantage here stems largely from the high levels of downforce produced by their rear wing design.
💨 US Grand Prix Prediction
Max Verstappen arrives in Austin in superb form, having secured four consecutive podium finishes and two victories since finishing ninth at the Hungaroring on August 3rd. As noted, the Dutchman boasts an exceptional record at the Circuit of the Americas, with six straight podiums (including three wins) since 2017.
Verstappen also impressed in Singapore, capitalising on the collision between Norris and Piastri to finish second, just +5.430 seconds behind George Russell. He now sits 63 points behind in the 2025 Drivers’ Championship, with six races remaining.
After winning 12 of the first 15 races of the 2025 season, Norris and Piastri have gone winless since the Dutch Grand Prix on August 31st. Both failed to make the podium in Austin last year, finishing fourth and fifth respectively, more than 20 seconds behind the winner, Charles Leclerc.
From a team perspective, McLaren has recently struggled with tyre management. Their softer compound strategy in Singapore backfired, as they failed to exploit the extra grip and couldn’t recover the ground lost after the early collision. They’ll need to fix this issue for the Circuit of the Americas, a varied, high-downforce track that demands balance.
Competition will be fierce, with Verstappen’s Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes’ George Russell (winner at Marina Bay) all in contention. Among all the possible US Grand Prix predictions, we’re foreseeing Verstappen to maintain his remarkable form and claim a fourth career victory at COTA, intensifying the title race and fuelling his late-season charge.
OUR PREDICTION: 🏆 Max Verstappen TO WIN 🏆
🎲 US Grand Prix Betting Odds
Our F1 US Grand Prix prediction aligns with the pre-race odds, which make Verstappen the joint favourite at around 3.00. McLaren’s Lando Norris can be backed at the same price, implying a 33.3% probability of either driver winning in Texas.
Oscar Piastri’s recent struggles have seen his odds drift to 3.50, and notably, he has never finished on the podium at COTA. Last year’s winner, Charles Leclerc, is priced at 13.00 — offering long-shot value at an implied 7.69% probability.
Here’s an overview of the latest betting odds for the US GP from three leading betting sites in Ireland. The sites we recommend also provide exciting free bet offers:
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🏎️ The Circuit of the Americas Track – Overview
The Circuit of the Americas features 20 turns. There are more than most tracks, with only Singapore (23) and Abu Dhabi (21) surpassing it. The layout is technical, high-downforce, and varied, with turns three through six resembling Silverstone’s Maggotts/Becketts sequence — fast, flowing, and demanding.
Turns 12 through 15 mimic Hockenheim’s stadium section, leaving little room for error.
A standout feature is the uphill straight into turn one, one of F1’s most dramatic opening corners. It consistently delivers action, with an average of 50 overtakes per race since 2017. However, this high-intensity section can also cause early tyre degradation.
The circuit measures 5.513 km, making it one of the longer tracks on the 2025 Formula 1 calendar. Strategy and tyre management are therefore critical for success in Austin.
🏁 Race Details – 2025 US Grand Prix
No F1 US GP preview would be complete without confirming the full race and qualifying schedule. Teams will arrive in Austin on Friday, October 17th, ahead of the first practice session at 18:30 GMT.
Sprint qualifying follows at 22:30, before the Sprint Race on Saturday, October 18th at 18:00.
Qualifying for the main race begins at 22:00, with the US Grand Prix itself taking place on Sunday, October 19th at 20:00 GMT.
🏁 Betting on the US Grand Prix – Our Conclusion
Early US Grand Prix betting markets have made Lando Norris and Max Verstappen the joint favourites at 3.00. Drivers’ Championship leader Oscar Piastri is available at 3.50, but given McLaren’s recent form and Verstappen’s resurgence, the Dutchman offers the best value.
The bookmaker reviews also price 2024 winner Charles Leclerc at 13.00, which is a worthwhile outside pick considering Ferrari’s form and his previous success at COTA.
Leclerc and Singapore winner George Russell offer solid value for a podium finish in Austin at odds of 2.10 with Lunubet, implying a 47.6% chance, even though recent form suggests the real probability may be slightly higher.
An alternative F1 US Grand Prix betting market allows you to back the winning constructor. If you’re confident Verstappen will triumph, betting on Red Bull at 2.85 with Lunubet provides superior value and a higher potential return.
Lewis Humphries
A business and iGaming copywriter from the UK, who has a passion for sports betting and remote casino betting. He's reviewed some of the world's leading casino platforms while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.