Spain vs England Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro Finals 2024

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Timetable 20:00 GMT 14th July 2024
Prediction Spain to Win!
Odds @2.50
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spain-v-england-prediction

We now know the identity of the 2024 UEFA European Championship finalists as Spain prepare to do battle with England at the Olympiastadion on Sunday, July 14th. La Roja have been the tournament’s outstanding side, winning all six of their matches so far by an aggregate score of 13-3. Although England have struggled for form and attacking fluency in Germany, they produced their best performance of the tournament during a last-gasp victory over the Netherlands in the last four. Make no mistake; they’ll need to reach their best level once again in Berlin if they’re to overcome the Spanish and win their first major title since the World Cup in 1966. But can they achieve this objective?

🏆 Spain vs England Prediction

England looked unrecognisable during the first 45 minutes of their last four clash against Holland, pressing with intent and dominating possession in the middle and attacking thirds. They were helped by superb individual performances by Phil Foden and Kobbie Mainoo, with the latter winning 100% of his duels, completing 36 passes and making two interceptions. Throughout the tournament, the Manchester United midfielder has a pass completion rate of 94.4% and has helped the Three Lions to gain better control during matches.

It's interesting to note that England have averaged 58.8% possession per 90 minutes at Euro 2024, compared to just 57.3% for Spain. However, La Roja have initiated more attacks (351) and completed considerably more dribbles than England (131), as they’ve looked to combine structured possession with more direct passes and wing play. Between them, Nico Williams and the precocious Lamine Yamal have completed 59 dribbles and produced six goal involvements.

The quality of Spain’s press has also been more consistent throughout the tournament. To this end, they’ve recovered 255 balls and attempted 74 tackles while maintaining a high tempo out of possession. Although England have completed 225 ball recoveries and attempted 70 tackles during their six matches, Gareth Southgate’s side have struggled to sustain a high level during any 90-minute period in the tournament.

The good news is that England have won 35 of these tackles (70%), while their physicality and defensive organisation can help them to disrupt their opponents. However, Spain have been consistently superb across their six matches and rarely dropped their intensity, either in or out of possession. They’ve also been more proactive and effective when using their substitutes’ bench, and I expect them to have a little too much for a spirited England side.

My Prediction: Spain 2 - 1 England⚽

💯Spain vs England Betting Odds

If you wager with one of Ireland’s best betting sites, you’ll be able to access a diverse selection of markets and lines. In addition to betting on the match winner or result, you can also wager on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on the total number of goals scored in Berlin. Here’s my analysis of these markets.

🏅 Spain vs England Prediction: Match Winner

Unsurprisingly, Spain are the narrow favourites to defeat England and win their fourth European Championship crown. Their pre-game odds of 2.49 imply a 40.16% probability of La Roja emerging victorious at the Olympiastadion. As for England, they can be backed at around 3.50 to triumph, suggesting that they have a 28.57% of winning their first major tournament since 1966. The draw is priced at 2.90, implying a 34.48% probability of the match ending tied after 90 minutes.

Team
directionbet-sport
legendplay-sports
royalistplay-sports
sportaza-sports
20BET-sports-logo
Spain to Win2.502.492.352.492.41
England to Win3.503.533.603.533.55
Draw to Win2.802.952.802.952.90

⚽ Spain vs England: Both Teams To Score Odds

Both teams have scored in five of Spain’s previous 10 matches (50%), with Luis de la Fuente’s team keeping four clean sheets and drawing just a single blank during this sequence. However, they’ve conceded in each of their last three matches at Euro 2024. Both competing sides have also found the net in five of England’s last 10 games. The Three Lions have kept a total of three clean sheets and failed to score on three occasions.

Yes/No
directionbet-sport
legendplay-sports
royalistplay-sports
sportaza-sports
20BET-sports-logo
Yes2.002.051.962.052.09
No1.731.741.701.741.75

🥅 Spain vs England: Over/Under Goals Odds

Spain’s previous 10 fixtures have also yielded 33 goals in total, at a rate of 3.3 per game. La Roja have scored 26 times during this sequence, at an average of 2.6 per 90 minutes. Interestingly, England’s last 10 matches have produced just 20 goals at the much lower rate of 2.0 per 90, while this run has seen the Three Lions score 12 times at an average of 1.2 per game.

Under/Over
directionbet-sport
legendplay-sports
royalistplay-sports
sportaza-sports
20BET-sports-logo
Over 2.5 Goals2.502.502.572.502.55
Under 2.5 Goals1.501.531.471.531.54

✔️ Spain vs England Betting Tips

As you can see, there are plenty of ways in which you can deploy your real money bankroll and available free bets when wagering on Spain vs England. But which markets and betting lines offer the best value? Here are some expert tips and insights to help inform your picks!

  • Tip 1: Back Over 2.5 Goals Being Scored: Both Euro 2024 semi-finals were surprisingly open, producing two end-to-end encounters and a total of six goals between them. What’s more, the last 20 matches contested by England and Spain have produced 53 goals at a rate of 2.65 per 90 minutes, while La Roja have starred at Euro 2024 from an offensive perspective. 16-year-old Lamine Yamal has been central to this attacking threat, producing a tournament-high 11 shot involvements after a ball carry and contributing three assists. So, get on over 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes at a price of 2.57 with Royalist Play Sport.
  • Tip 2: Back Spain to Win the Final: Each of the last two European Championship finals have been settled after extra-time, while England’s defeat at Euro 2020 followed a nerve-jangling penalty shootout. Make no mistake; finals are always tense and keenly contested, and neither of the two completing teams is likely to blow the other away in Berlin. Both Spain and England are defensively solid too, conceding just seven goals in 14 matches between them at an average of 0.5 per 90. So, there’s some value in backing Spain to win the final via any means at a price of 1.68 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Both Teams to Score: Interestingly, the pre-game odds imply a 58.82% probability of both teams not scoring in Berlin. However, this ignores the attacking quality that exists in both teams, with Spain having scored in nine of their last 10 games and found the net 26 times during this sequence. England’s front four of Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden and Harry Kane also scored 90 goals between them in Europe’s top five leagues in 2023/24. Despite their inconsistency in the attacking third at Euro 2024, the Three Lions have found the net in five of their six tournament games too. So, get on both teams to score at the Olympiastadion at a price of 2.09 with 20BET Sports.

1️⃣ Spain

Spain were superb when overcoming France in the semi-final, as outstanding goals by Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo overturned an early opener by Randal Kolo Muani. This match saw La Roja win for the eighth consecutive time, while they’ve now lost just one of their previous 18 matches in all competitions since a 2-0 defeat to Scotland in March 2023. During the Euros, no side has been able to cope with Spain’s high quality and varied attacking threat, with Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo generating the three highest xA values per 90 among all players to have completed more than 250 minutes. Olmo has also scored three times and contributed two assists in just 341 minutes of game time, so he’s averaging a goal involvement every 68.2 minutes at Euro 2024.

Last 5 Games
Spain 2
France 1
09.07.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Semi-finals
Spain 2
Germany 1
05.07.24
UEFA Euro 2024 - Quarterfinals
Spain 4
Georgia 1
30.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Round of 16
Albania 0
Spain 1
24.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B
Spain 1
Italy 0
20.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B

Defenders Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand will be available for the final after suspension. They’re expected to return to the starting 11 too, despite the impressive performances of Jesus Navas and Nacho in their stead against the French. The aforementioned Olmo will continue to deputise for the injured Pedri, while striker Alvaro Morata will also be fit to start despite his collision with a security guard after Tuesday’s semi-final win.

2️⃣ England Update

It was substitute Ollie Watkins who fired England into the Euro 2024 final, with his superb 90th-minute winner in Dortmund capping the Three Lions’ best performance of the tournament so far. However, Southgate’s team struggled at times during the second 45 minutes, while the side has now won just four of their last 10 matches in normal time. They’ve only scored 12 times during this sequence at a rate of 1.2 per 90, but five of these have come during the knockout stages at Euro 2024. England have also impressed defensively, with the powerful Declan Rice recovering an impressive 41 balls during the tournament and winning nine of his 14 tackles overall. He’ll have a huge role to play if England are to overcome Spain.

Last 5 Games
Netherlands 1
England 2
10.07.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Semi-finals
England 1
Switzerland 1
06.07.24
UEFA Euro 2024 - Quarterfinals
England 2
Slovakia 1
30.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Round of 16
England 0
Slovenia 0
25.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Denmark 1
England 1
20.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C

Southgate persisted with his fluid 3-4-2-1 formation against the Dutch, with this affording his team much more control in possession of the ball. He’s likely to adopt the same approach in Berlin, while he has a fully fit squad to choose from against La Roja. The Three Lions should be largely unchanged here, although the fit-again Luke Shaw could start at left-wing back after replacing Kieran Trippier at half-time last time out. Match winner Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer (who assisted the Aston Villa striker against the Netherlands) may well be used as impact subs once again.

👕 Spain vs England Potential Lineups

Pos. Spain
4-3-3
England
3-4-2-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper U. Simon J. Pickford Goalkeeper
Right Back D. Carvajal K. Walker Right Centre Back
Centre Back R. Le Normand J. Stones Centre Back
Centre Back A. Laporte M. Guéhi Left Centre Back
Left Back M. Cucurella B. Saka Right Wing Back
Midfielder F. Ruiz D. Rice Central Midfielder
Midfielder Rodri K. Mainoo Central Midfielder
Midfielder D. Olmo L. Shaw Left Wing Back
Wide Forward L. Yamal P. Foden Attacking Midfielder
Striker A. Morata J. Bellingham Attacking Midfielder
Wide Forward N. Williams H. Kane Striker

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis-Humphries-author-profile

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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