Italy vs Albania Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024
| Timetable | 21:00 GMT 15th June 2024 |
| Prediction | Italy to Win! |
| Odds | @1.37 |
| Bookmaker | Legend Play Sports |
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Albania are appearing in just their second UEFA European Championship finals in 2024, having topped qualifying Group E ahead of more seasoned nations, including the Czech Republic and Poland. Although Italy were expected to be playing in Germany this summer, they finished second behind England in Group C and only qualified ahead of Ukraine as a result of their superior head-to-head record.
However, they’re also the two-time and defending European champions, while the Azzurri will be appearing in their eighth consecutive finals since 1992. They’ll certainly start as heavy betting favourites here, but what odds are Ireland’s best betting sites offering on a shock Albania win?
🏆 Italy vs Albania Prediction
Albania’s success in qualification was built on solid defensive organisation and incredible efficiency in front of goal. They attempted 200 clearances and made 60 tackles in their eight matches while keeping an impressive four clean sheets (all at home). Their 12 goals also come from just 72 attempts at a rate of 0.15 per shot, with only four UEFA nations performing better according to this metric.
Although Italy were slightly less efficient, with a goals-per-shot ratio of 0.13, they registered considerably more attempts on goal (126) and launched a total of 360 attacks. The Azzurri also averaged 58.9% possession per 90 (compared to 52% for Albania). Interestingly, their pass completion rate of 87.5% is also much higher than their opponents, highlighting a marked difference in technical quality.
So, I expect Italy to dominate the ball and territory in Dortmund, as Albania remain compact in their defensive shape and hit their opponents on the break. This may create a classic game of cat and mouse, which could suit Albania given that the Azzurri are notoriously slow starters at major tournaments.
Although this match will be much closer than people are expecting as a result, I’m still tipping Italy to grind out a crucial win at the Westfalenstadion. They’re also defensively solid and well organised, of course, and this will help them to maintain patience and poise and sustain attacks as they look to break Albania down.
My Prediction: 🏆Italy 2 – 0 Albania⚽
💯 Italy vs Albania Match Odds
Italy are the odds-on favourites in the win market, so backing them to beat Albania will only deliver nominal returns. However, there are alternative betting markets to explore, including both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under on the total number of goals scored during the 90 minutes. Let’s take a closer look at these markets and how they’re currently being priced.
🏅 Italy vs Albania: Match Winner
You can back Italy to win outright at an average price of 1.35, implying a 74.07% probability of Luciano Spalletti’s men starting their Euro 2024 campaign with three points. Conversely, Albania are priced as high as 10.00 to record just their second victory in the European Championship finals, suggesting that they have a 10.00% chance of achieving this goal. Statistically speaking, the draw is the second most likely outcome, with odds of around 4.50, implying a 22.22% probability of the match ending tied.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy to Win | 1.30 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.37 | TBA |
| Albania to Win | 10.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | TBA |
| Draw to Win | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.60 | 4.50 | TBA |
⚽ Italy vs Albania: Both Teams To Score
Both teams scored in five of the eight qualification matches contested by Italy, with the Azzurri keeping a total of three clean sheets and failing to score just once (in the decisive 0-0 draw against Ukraine). I already touched on how Albania kept four clean sheets during qualifying, while both sides found the net in just three of their qualification games. The Red and Blacks also drew two blanks in front of the goal.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.38 | 2.36 | 2.29 | 2.36 | TBA |
| No | 1.57 | 1.54 | 1.51 | 1.54 | TBA |
🥅 Italy vs Albania: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Italy’s eight qualification matches also produced a total of 25 goals, at a rate of 3.12 per game. The Italians scored 16 of these goals at a rate of exactly 2.00 per 90 minutes. Interestingly, Albania’s eight encounters yielded just 16 goals in total at a rate of 2.00 per 90, with the Red and Blacks conceding just four times during the campaign.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.00 | 1.96 | 1.98 | 1.96 | TBA |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.73 | 1.77 | 1.77 | 1.77 | TBA |
✔️ Italy vs Albania Betting Tips
However you choose to bet on the Euro 2024 clash between Italy and Albania, it’s important to compare and identify the best value markets. You should also look to create value through combination betting where possible, so here are some expert tips to help you make the most of your real money bankroll and available free bets!
- Tip 1: Back Italy to Win to Nil: If you want to back Italy to win at enhanced odds, you should consider betting on the Azzurri to win to nil. Albania scored just 12 goals during qualifying, which is the fewest of any side to have reached the finals of Euro 2024. They haven’t scored in their last three games either. The Italians have kept clean sheets in three of their previous six matches too, including the tense 0-0 draw in Ukraine that confirmed the team’s participation in Germany. You can back Italy to win to nil at a price of 1.87 with Royalist Play Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Italy to Win with Under 2.5 Goals: Combination betting can also unlock superior value when backing the Italians to win. Not only are the Azzurri the overwhelming favourites to defeat Albania in Dortmund, but the pre-game odds also imply a 57.80% probability of under 2.5 goals being scored. Remember, only France and Portugal conceded less goals than Albania during qualifying, but the Red and Blacks are far from prolific in front of goal. So, get on Italy to win with under 2.5 goals scored price of 3.00 with LegendPlay Sports.
- Tip 3: Back the Draw/Italy in the Half-Time/Full-Time Market: Albania only conceded two goals during the first 45 minutes of their Euro qualification matches, while no opponent was able to breach their defence in the opening 30 minutes. So, it may take time for Italy to break down Albania’s compact defensive shape, especially given the Azzurri’s penchant for starting slowly in major tournaments. So, there’s value in backing the draw/Italy in the Half-Time/Full-Time market, especially at the competitive price of 3.75 with Sportaza Sports.
1️⃣ Italy Euro Update
Despite being drawn into a difficult qualification group for Euro 2024, Italy managed to win four of their eight matches and lost just twice (home and away against England). Overall, Luciano Spalletti’s men have only been beaten twice in their previous 10 outings, with this sequence including their third place finish in the 2023 UEFA Nations League. Italy have also scored 21 goals during this run, at an impressive rate of 2.10 per 90 minutes. Unsurprisingly, Nicolo Barella was the heartbeat of the team as it reached the finals in Germany, as he contributed four assists during qualifying and completed 311 of his 356 attempted passes (86.29%).
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Ecuador 0 Italy 2 | 24.03.24 International Friendly |
| Italy 2 Venezuela 1 | 21.03.24 International Friendly |
| Ukraine 0 Italy 0 | 20.11.23 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group C |
| Italy 5 North Macedonia 2 | 17.11.23 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group C |
| England 3 Italy 1 | 17.10.23 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group C |
Leonardo Spinazzola has been left out of Spalletti’s initial 30-man squad for the Euros, having incurred a muscle injury when playing for Roma in the Europa League semi-final against Bayer Leverkusen. Fellow left-back Destiny Udogie will definitely miss out with a thigh injury, having undergone surgery last month.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Leonardo Spinazzola | Muscle Injury |
| Destiny Udogie | Thigh Injury |
2️⃣ Albania Euro Update
While Albania only lost once during their Euro 2024 qualification campaign, they’ve failed to win any of their previous four matches since October 2023. During this sequence, they’ve suffered defeats against Sweden and Chile while recording disappointing draws against the Faroe Islands (0-0) and Moldova (1-1). Prior to this, the team went eight games unbeaten following a 3-1 friendly defeat to Italy in November 2022. If the Red and Blacks are to reverse their recent run of form, midfielder Nedim Bajrami will be key. He scored three times and provided one assist during qualifying, producing a goal involvement every 144 minutes for his country on average.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Sweden 1 Albania 0 | 25.03.24 International Friendly |
| Albania 0 Chile 3 | 22.03.24 International Friendly |
| Albania 0 Faroe Islands 0 | 20.11.23 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group E |
| Moldova 1 Albania 1 | 17.11.23 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group E |
| Albania 2 Bulgaria 0 | 17.10.23 International Friendly |
Albania are at full strength at the time of writing, with winger Jasir Asani having returned to full fitness after injury. He was named in Albania’s provisional 27-man squad for the tournament, which will be reduced to 26 players when it’s finalised next week.
👕 Italy v Albania Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Italy 4-3-3 | Albania 4-2-3-1 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | G. Donnarumma | E. Berisha | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | G. Di Lorenzo | E. Hysaj | Right Back |
| Centre Back | F. Acerbi | A. Ajeti | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | A. Bastoni | B. Djimsiti | Centre Back |
| Left Back | F. Dimarco | M. Mitaj | Left Back |
| Midfielder | N. Barella | K. Asllani | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | Jorginho | Y. Ramadani | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | D. Frattesi | N. Bajrami | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | D. Berardi | J. Asani | Wide Forward |
| Striker | G. Raspadori | A. Hložek | Striker |
| Wide Forward | F. Chiesa | T. Seferi | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
