Germany vs Scotland Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

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TournamentUEFA Euro 2024
Timetable21:00 GMT 14th June 2024
PredictionGermany to Win!
Odds@1.27
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
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The 17th iteration of the UEFA European Championship will kick off on June 14th at the Allianz Arena in Munich, as host nation Germany take on Group A rivals Scotland. Julian Nagelsmann’s team are among the favourites to win their fourth European Championship crown, while Scotland qualified impressively and even defeated Spain at Hampden Park on their way to the finals. The Germans impressed during recent friendly wins against France and the Netherlands, and will be keen to continue this good form against Steve Clarke’s side. But can they kickstart their Euro 2024 campaign with a win, or will the Scots upset yet another European powerhouse?

🏆Germany vs Scotland Prediction

Scotland’s qualification success was built on solid defensive organisation and rapid counterattacks, while Steve Clarke’s balanced 3-4-2-1 formation also proved highly effective. Midfielder Scott McTominay contributed seven of Scotland’s 17 goals during qualifying, too (41%), scoring at a rate of 0.88 goals per game and driving the Tartan Army forward with his well-timed runs and ball-carrying skills.

However, Scotland were extremely limited in possession during qualification, averaging just 46.9% possession per 90 minutes and attempting a paltry 3522 passes in total. No Euro 2024 team attempted fewer passes during their qualifying matches, as Scotland preferred to cede possession of the ball, draw their opponents onto them and subsequently exploit the space left behind.

Conversely, Germany boasted 62% possession when beating the Netherlands last time out and had 58% of the ball during their victory over France in Lyon. Nagelsmann also appears to have settled on a fluid 4-2-3-1 formation ahead of the Euro 2024 finals, with Jamal Musiala, İlkay Gündoğan, Florian Wirtz, and Kai Havertz continually rotating in the front four positions.

I expect Germany to see even more of the ball against the Scots, who will be without several key players in the form of Nathan Patterson, Aaron Hickey and Bologna midfielder Lewis Ferguson. This will suit Germany’s highly technical midfielders and attacking players, especially as they’re likely to dominate possession high up the pitch. So, although I expect Scotland to score in Munich, this won’t be enough to prevent an opening day win for the hosts.

My Prediction: 🏆Germany 3 – 1 Scotland⚽

💯 Germany vs Scotland Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have published odds across a range of markets ahead of the clash between Germany and Scotland. These include the match winner or result, both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under market on how many goals will be scored in Munich. But how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Germany vs Scotland: Match Winner

Unsurprisingly, Germany are the overwhelming favourites to defeat Scotland in their tournament opener. In fact, you can back the ‘DFB-Team’ to prevail at an average price of 1.26, implying a 79.3% probability of a win for the host nation. Conversely, Scotland can be backed at around 11.00, suggesting that they have just a 9.09% chance of triumphing in their Group A opener. The draw is the second most likely outcome from a statistical perspective and priced at 5.50, with these odds implying an 18.18% probability of the match ending tied.

Team
Germany to Win1.251.271.261.271.25
Scotland to Win11.0011.0011.0011.0011.00
Draw to Win5.505.505.505.505.60

⚽ Germany vs Scotland: Both Teams To Score

Although Germany didn’t have to qualify for Euro 2024 due to their status as hosts, six of their previous eight friendly matches have seen both teams score (75%). As for Scotland, both sides found the net in just three of their eight qualifying games (37.5%), with the Tartan Army keeping four clean sheets and failing to score just once. This further highlights the defensive strength and organisation of Steve Clarke’s team.

Yes/No
Yes2.202.252.202.202.38
No1.601.601.551.601.59

🥅 Germany vs Scotland: Over/Under Goals

Germany’s last eight matches have also yielded a total of 28 goals at a rate of exactly 3.5 per game. Germany have scored and conceded 14 goals during this sequence, at a rate of 1.75 per 90 minutes. As for Scotland, their eight UEFA qualification matches produced 25 goals at the lower rate of 3.12 per 90, although they only conceded eight times at an average of precisely one goal per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.731.701.711.701.72
Under 2.5 Goals2.002.052.062.052.09

✔️ Germany vs Scotland Betting Tips

There’s very little value to be found in backing Germany to win outright here unless you’re willing or able to commit a sizable stake. So, we’d recommend seeking out alternative betting lines and markets while also building combination wagers that help you to create value and make the most of your bankroll.

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: Although the pre-game odds imply just a 45.45% probability of both teams scoring at the Allianz Arena, this arguably doesn’t reflect Germany’s obvious defensive frailties. Remember, they’ve conceded in seven of their last eight matches, shipping 14 goals in total at a rate of 1.75 per 90 during this sequence. Scotland found the net in seven of their eight Euro 2024 qualifiers, too, while they’ll look to punish Germany’s high defensive line in transition. So, get on both sides to score here at a price of 2.25 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Germany to Win with Over 2.5 Goals: If you want to back Germany to win at enhanced odds, combination betting could be the way to go. Not only is Nagelsmann’s side odds-on to defeat Scotland, for example, but the odds also imply a 58.47% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored at the Allianz Arena. This also takes into account Germany’s high quality attacking options and fluidity, alongside Scotland’s own goal threat and defensive absentees. You can get on Germany to win with over 2.5 goals scored at the competitive price of 1.91 with Direction Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Germany to Win with a Handicap of -1.75 Goal: If you want to maximise one of your available free bets, you could also back Germany to win with a handicap of -1.75 goals. The DFB-Team were outstanding when defeating the Netherlands and France in their last two games, producing 26 attempts on goal during these two matches and completing 91% of their total passes. They finally seem to have struck the optimal balance between defence and attack under Nagelsmann, while you can get on this market at the enhanced price of 2.06 with Royalist Play Sports.

1️⃣ Germany Euro Update

Not only have Germany won their last two matches against elite European nations, but they also dominated possession across the 180 minutes and were incredibly accurate in their passing. Their 2-0 victory over France in Lyon also saw them keep their first clean sheet under Nagelsmann and in 11 attempts overall since March 2023. Germany are now converting a higher percentage of their chances, too, with Niclas Füllkrug (three) and Arsenal’s Kai Havertz (two) contributing five goals between them in the last five games. This increased efficiency at both ends of the pitch will ensure that Germany are among the leading contenders to win Euro 2024.

Last 5 Games
Germany 2
Netherlands 1
26.03.24
International Friendly
France 0
Germany 2
23.03.24
International Friendly
Austria 2
Germany 0
21.11.23
International Friendly
Germany 2
Turkey 3
18.11.23
International Friendly
Mexico 2
Germany 2
18.10.23
International Friendly

Although Thomas Muller was withdrawn from a recent national team training session with a knee injury, he’s expected to be passed fit in time for the tournament opener. Otherwise, Jamal Musiala (knee injury), Aleksandar Pavlovic (stretched ligament) and Leroy Sane (groin) are nursing minor injuries ahead of the match against Scotland, while Bayern keeper Manuel Neuer is recovering from an infection.

Player Reason
Thomas Muller Knee Injury
Jamal Musiala Knee Injury
Aleksandar Pavlovic Stretched Ligament
Leroy Sane Groin Injury
Manuel Neuer Infection

2️⃣ Scotland Euro Update

The Scots were incredibly impressive during qualifying, winning five of their eight matches and losing just once (against group winners Spain in Seville on October 12th, 2023). They also won 2-1 in Norway thanks to late goals by striker Lyndon Dykes and Kenny McLean, helping the Tartan Army to finish six points ahead of the Scandinavian nation in second place. Scotland’s flexible 3-4-2-1 shape also became a compact 5-4-1 when the team was out of possession, helping Steve Clarke’s men to keep four clean sheets during qualification and complete an impressive 270 ball recoveries. They also attempted 70 tackles and were combative every time they took to the field.

Last 5 Games
Scotland 0
Northern Ireland 1
26.03.24
International Friendly
Netherlands 4
Scotland 0
22.03.24
International Friendly
Scotland 3
Norway 3
19.11.23
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group A
Georgia 2
Scotland 2
16.11.23
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group A
France 4
Scotland 1
17.10.23
International Friendly

Since beating Cyprus 3-0 in September 2023, the Scots have gone winless in seven matches. This run has coincided with a slew of injuries, with defenders Aaron Hickey and Nathan Patterson (both hamstring injuries) having been left out of the provisional squad for Euro 2024. Bologna skipper Lewis Ferguson has also been ruled out after undergoing knee surgery. The good news is that Stuart Armstrong should be fit after recovering from his own hamstring strain, while Scott McTominay also finished the season strongly for Manchester United and will be raring to go against Germany.

Player Reason
Aaron Hickey Hamstring Injury
Nathan Patterson Hamstring Injury
Lewis Ferguson Knee Surgery
Stuart Armstrong Hamstring Injury

👕 Germany vs Scotland Potential Lineups

Pos. Germany
4-2-3-1
Scotland
3-4-2-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper M. ter Stegen A. Gunn Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Kimmich R. Porteous Right Centre Back
Centre Back J. Tah G. Hanley Centre Back
Centre Back A. Rudiger K. Tierney Left Centre Back
Left Back M. Mittelstädt A. Ralston Right Wing Back
Midfielder R. Andrich B. Gilmour Central Midfielder
Midfielder T. Kroos S. McTominay Central Midfielder
Midfielder I. Gündoğan A. Robertson Left Wing Back
Wide Forward J. Musiala R. Christie Attacking Midfielder
Striker K. Havertz J. McGinn Attacking Midfielder
Wide Forward F. Wirtz L. Shankland Striker

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.