Spain vs Croatia Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

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TournamentUEFA Euro 2024
Timetable18:00 GMT 15th June 2024
PredictionSpain to Win!
BookmakerRoyalistplay Sports
The best odds
Bet €100 and win €175 if Spain win.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.73
Bet €100 and win €173 if Spain win.
Odds : 1.73
Bet €100 and win €173 if Spain win.

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The first genuine heavyweight clash of the 17th UEFA European Championship takes place on June 15th, as Spain battles Croatia in a Group C clash at Berlin’s Olympiastadion. Both of these teams featured in the top 10 of FIFA’s latest rankings, although Luis de la Fuente’s side qualified a little more convincingly and ultimately topped UEFA Group A. Croatia placed second in Group D and only secured their place in the competition proper following a 1-0 win over Armenia on the final matchday. ‘The Red Fury’ will subsequently start as favourites in Berlin, but Croatia boast both the quality and experience to spring a surprise here.

🏆 Spain vs Croatia Prediction

Spain were typically dominant during their qualification campaign, winning seven of their eight matches and plundering 25 goals. They also averaged 67.6% possession per 90 minutes in Group A while completing an impressive 5280 of their 5815 attempted passes (90.8%). They even retained 75% of the ball during their 2-0 defeat to Scotland at Hampden Park, although they struggled to convert this dominance into clear-cut chances.

However, Croatia are also technically adept and comfortable on the ball. They’ve averaged 62.5% possession per game in qualification Group D, completing 88.8% of their 5510 passes overall. Both teams are, therefore, likely to enjoy extended periods of possession during the game at the Olympiastadion, so use of the ball and efficiency in the attacking third will be the determining factors here.

The good news for Croatia is that although Spain launched more attacks than their opponents during qualifying (465 vs 393), Zlatko Dalić’s side attempted slightly more shots on goal (146) and more shots on target (59). The concern is that the Red Fury scored a staggering 12 more goals than their opponents, with their superior quality and depth in attack evident throughout the campaign.

Six Spaniards score two or more goals for their country during qualifying, for example, compared to just four for Croatia. A total of 12 Spanish players found the net in Group A, too, so the Croats may find it hard to nullify their opponents successfully during the 90 minutes. Because of this, I’m tipping Spain to prevail by the odd goal in an entertaining match.

My Prediction: 🏆Spain 2 – 1 Croatia⚽

💯 Spain vs Croatia Odds

The win market is likely to be the most popular ahead of the clash between Spain and Croatia. However, you can also wager on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under of how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes, or combine these as part of a single wager. But how are each of these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Spain vs Croatia: Match Winner

Spain are the current pre-game favourites among Ireland’s best betting sites, with their average price of 1.73 implying a 57.80% probability of a win for Luis de la Fuente’s men. Alternatively, you can back Croatia to prevail at around 5.00, suggesting that they have just a 20% chance of beating the 2012 European Championship winners. The draw is the second most likely outcome statistically speaking, with a price of 3.50 implying a 28.57% probability of the match ending tied.

Spain to Win1.731.731.751.73TBA
Croatia to Win4.755.004.805.00TBA
Draw to Win3.803.503.503.50TBA

⚽ Spain vs Croatia: Both Teams To Score

Both teams scored in just three of Spain’s eight qualifying matches (37.5%), with the Red Fury keeping four clean sheets and failing to score just once (during the 2-0 defeat against Scotland at Hampden Park). Similarly, both sides found the net in only two of Croatia’s eight qualification games (25%). Zlatko Dalić’s team kept an impressive five clean sheets home and away, while they drew just a single blank in defeat against Turkey.


🥅 Spain vs Croatia: Over/Under Goals

The eight qualification matches contested by Spain also yielded a total of 30 goals at a rate of 3.75 per game. Spain scored 25 of these goals at an impressive rate of 3.12 per 90 minutes and conceded only five. Conversely, Croatia’s eight Group D encounters produced just 17 goals, at a significantly lower rate of 2.12 per 90. However, Croatia conceded just five goals during qualifying at an average of 0.8 per game.

Over 2.5 Goals2.001.931.971.93TBA
Under 2.5 Goals1.801.801.781.80TBA

✔️ Spain vs Croatia Betting Tips

While Spain are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Croatia, the bookies are largely split on whether or not both teams will score at the Olympiastadion. They’re also hedging their bets when it comes to the over/under on how many goals will be scored, so here are some betting tips to help you navigate the most challenging markets.

  • Tip 1: Back Over 2.5 Goals Being Scored: The over/under odds imply a slightly higher probability of under 2.5 goals being scored in Berlin, while there is a 50% chance of three or more goals being scored here. However, while Croatia notched just 13 goals during qualifying, they scored in seven of their eight matches and struck 59 attempts on target (only Portugal and France registered more). Spain also boast significant firepower, so get on over 2.5 goals being scored in the game at a price of 2.00 with DirectionBet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Spain to Win with Over 1.5 Goals: If you want to back Spain to win at enhanced odds, you should also consider building combination bets. For example, the Red Fury are odds-on to win their opening Group C game, while the odds also imply a 76.92% probability of over 1.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes. The 16 qualification matches played by both teams produced 47 goals at a rate of 2.93 per game, so get on Spain to win with over 1.5 goals scored at a price of 2.12 with Sportaza Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Spain to Win by a Single Goal: If you have one or more free bets, you may want to engage in winning margin betting. This is likely to be a tense and tight encounter, with the most recent meeting producing a high quality 0-0 draw in the 2023 UEFA Nations League Final (the Red Fury triumphed on penalties). Spain prevailed by two goals in Euro 2020, while the Croats won 3-2 in Zagreb in the 2018 Nations League. Because of this and Croatia’s defensive solidity, get on Spain to win by just a single goal at the competitive price of 3.60 with Royalist Play Sports.

1️⃣ Spain Euro Update

Since previous manager Luis Enrique took charge of Spain for the second time in 2019, the Red Fury have lost just six of the 49 matches they’ve contested. Their defeat to Scotland remains Luis de la Fuente’s only competitive loss in 10 outings, while Spain have been beaten just twice in 12 matches since they were eliminated by Morocco in the last 16 of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Despite relatively limited playing time, Barcelona forward Ferran Torres notched three goals and one assist during Spain’s impressive qualification campaign, registering a goal involvement every 68 minutes on average.

Last 5 Games
Spain 3
Brazil 3
International Friendly
Spain 0
Colombia 1
International Friendly
Spain 3
Georgia 1
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group A
Cyprus 1
Spain 3
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group A
Norway 0
Spain 1
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group A

Spain will confirm their 26-man Euro 2024 squad on June 7th, but three players are doubts at the time of writing. Real Sociedad midfielder Martin Zubimendi is struggling with a hamstring injury, for example, while forward Dani Olmo (muscular injury) is also being assessed. Seasoned right back Jesus Navas has a thigh injury and could yet miss out on a place in the final squad.

Player Reason
Martin Zubimendi Hamstring Injury
Dani Olmo Muscle Injury
Jesus Navas Thigh Injury

2️⃣ Croatia Euro Update

Since beating Morocco in the third-place playoff at the 2022 World Cup, Croatia have lost just three of their 12 matches in all competitions. This sequence included the aforementioned penalty shootout defeat to Spain in the 2023 Nations League final, while the Croats also incurred successive defeats to Turkey and Wales during Euro 2024 qualification. However, they’ve since gone unbeaten in five matches overall. 31-year-old midfielder Marcelo Brozović played a central role for the Blazers en route to Germany, completing 92.8% of his 766 attempted passes and producing a cross accuracy of 75% across his eight appearances.

Last 5 Games
Egypt 2
Croatia 4
International Friendly
Tunisia 0
Croatia 0
International Friendly
Croatia 1
Armenia 0
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group D
Latvia 0
Croatia 2
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group D
Wales 2
Croatia 1
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group D

Croatia are virtually at full strength as they prepare for the match against Spain in Berlin. However, Torino’s attacking midfielder Nikola Vlašić has been struggling with an adductor injury of late, and he’ll continued to be assessed ahead of upcoming friendly clashes with North Macedonia and Portugal.

Player Reason
Nikola Vlašić Adductor Injury

👕 Spain vs Croatia Potential Lineups

Pos. Spain
Goalkeeper U. Simon D. Livaković Goalkeeper
Right Back D. Carvajal J. Stanišić Right Back
Centre Back R. Le Normand J. Šutalo Centre Back
Centre Back A. Laporte J. Gvardiol Centre Back
Left Back A. Grimaldo B. Sosa Left Back
Midfielder Pedri M. Brozović Midfielder
Midfielder Rodri L. Modric Midfielder
Midfielder F. Ruiz L. Sučić Midfielder
Wide Forward F. Torres L. Majer Wide Forward
Striker A. Morata A. Kramarić Striker
Wide Forward M. Oyarzabal L. Ivanušec Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.