Spain vs Croatia Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

🏆 Spain vs Croatia Prediction

Spain were typically dominant during their qualification campaign, winning seven of their eight matches and plundering 25 goals. They also averaged 67.6% possession per 90 minutes in Group A while completing an impressive 5280 of their 5815 attempted passes (90.8%). They even retained 75% of the ball during their 2-0 defeat to Scotland at Hampden Park, although they struggled to convert this dominance into clear-cut chances.

However, Croatia are also technically adept and comfortable on the ball. They’ve averaged 62.5% possession per game in qualification Group D, completing 88.8% of their 5510 passes overall. Both teams are, therefore, likely to enjoy extended periods of possession during the game at the Olympiastadion, so use of the ball and efficiency in the attacking third will be the determining factors here.

The good news for Croatia is that although Spain launched more attacks than their opponents during qualifying (465 vs 393), Zlatko Dalić’s side attempted slightly more shots on goal (146) and more shots on target (59). The concern is that the Red Fury scored a staggering 12 more goals than their opponents, with their superior quality and depth in attack evident throughout the campaign.

Six Spaniards score two or more goals for their country during qualifying, for example, compared to just four for Croatia. A total of 12 Spanish players found the net in Group A, too, so the Croats may find it hard to nullify their opponents successfully during the 90 minutes. Because of this, I’m tipping Spain to prevail by the odd goal in an entertaining match.

💯 Spain vs Croatia Odds

The win market is likely to be the most popular ahead of the clash between Spain and Croatia. However, you can also wager on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under of how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes, or combine these as part of a single wager. But how are each of these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Spain vs Croatia: Match Winner

Spain are the current pre-game favourites among Ireland’s best betting sites, with their average price of 1.73 implying a 57.80% probability of a win for Luis de la Fuente’s men. Alternatively, you can back Croatia to prevail at around 5.00, suggesting that they have just a 20% chance of beating the 2012 European Championship winners. The draw is the second most likely outcome statistically speaking, with a price of 3.50 implying a 28.57% probability of the match ending tied.

Team
Spain to Win	1.73	1.73	1.75	1.73	TBA
Croatia to Win	4.75	5.00	4.80	5.00	TBA
Draw to Win	3.80	3.50	3.50	3.50	TBA

⚽ Spain vs Croatia: Both Teams To Score

Both teams scored in just three of Spain’s eight qualifying matches (37.5%), with the Red Fury keeping four clean sheets and failing to score just once (during the 2-0 defeat against Scotland at Hampden Park). Similarly, both sides found the net in only two of Croatia’s eight qualification games (25%). Zlatko Dalić’s team kept an impressive five clean sheets home and away, while they drew just a single blank in defeat against Turkey.

Yes/No
Yes	1.91	1.88	1.77	1.88	TBA
No	1.85	1.85	1.88	1.85	TBA

🥅 Spain vs Croatia: Over/Under Goals

The eight qualification matches contested by Spain also yielded a total of 30 goals at a rate of 3.75 per game. Spain scored 25 of these goals at an impressive rate of 3.12 per 90 minutes and conceded only five. Conversely, Croatia’s eight Group D encounters produced just 17 goals, at a significantly lower rate of 2.12 per 90. However, Croatia conceded just five goals during qualifying at an average of 0.8 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	2.00	1.93	1.97	1.93	TBA
Under 2.5 Goals	1.80	1.80	1.78	1.80	TBA

1️⃣ Spain Euro Update

Since previous manager Luis Enrique took charge of Spain for the second time in 2019, the Red Fury have lost just six of the 49 matches they’ve contested. Their defeat to Scotland remains Luis de la Fuente’s only competitive loss in 10 outings, while Spain have been beaten just twice in 12 matches since they were eliminated by Morocco in the last 16 of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Despite relatively limited playing time, Barcelona forward Ferran Torres notched three goals and one assist during Spain’s impressive qualification campaign, registering a goal involvement every 68 minutes on average.

Spain will confirm their 26-man Euro 2024 squad on June 7th, but three players are doubts at the time of writing. Real Sociedad midfielder Martin Zubimendi is struggling with a hamstring injury, for example, while forward Dani Olmo (muscular injury) is also being assessed. Seasoned right back Jesus Navas has a thigh injury and could yet miss out on a place in the final squad.

2️⃣ Croatia Euro Update

Since beating Morocco in the third-place playoff at the 2022 World Cup, Croatia have lost just three of their 12 matches in all competitions. This sequence included the aforementioned penalty shootout defeat to Spain in the 2023 Nations League final, while the Croats also incurred successive defeats to Turkey and Wales during Euro 2024 qualification. However, they’ve since gone unbeaten in five matches overall. 31-year-old midfielder Marcelo Brozović played a central role for the Blazers en route to Germany, completing 92.8% of his 766 attempted passes and producing a cross accuracy of 75% across his eight appearances.

Croatia are virtually at full strength as they prepare for the match against Spain in Berlin. However, Torino’s attacking midfielder Nikola Vlašić has been struggling with an adductor injury of late, and he’ll continued to be assessed ahead of upcoming friendly clashes with North Macedonia and Portugal.

👕 Spain vs Croatia Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.