Sussex Stakes Betting Odds, Tips & Prediction (2023)

TournamentThe Sussex Stakes
TimetableWednesday, 2nd August
PredictionPaddington to Win
Odds3.00 (Bet €100 and win €300 if Paddington wins)
Paddington to Win
The best odds
Odds : 3.00
If Paddington wins, you will receive €100 x 3.00 = €300
€50+ 50 Free Spins
Odds : 3.00
If Paddington wins, you will receive €100 x 3.00= €300

18+ | New customers only. Min stake €/£10 | 30 days to qualify | Payment method restrictions exist | Play Responsibly | Terms and Conditions apply.

Odds : 3.00
If Paddington wins, you will receive €100 x 3.00 = €300

18+ | 1st depositors only. Use promo code H30 to qualify. Min £10/€10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed. | Payment method limitations, country & wagering req. exist | Cashed out/voided bets do not qualify | Play Responsibly | Terms and Conditions apply.

The Qatar Sussex Stakes is the highlight Glorious Goodwood betting on day two of the festival, with this Group 1 race boasting a cumulative prize fund of €1 million. A total of 40 talented runners will compete for a winner’s cheque of €567,100 this year, with the ante post Sussex Stakes betting earmarking Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old colt Paddington as the early favourite. Below, I’m going to take a detailed look at the latest odds while making my own Sussex Stakes prediction about who will win this prestigious race.

💯 Sussex Stakes Betting Odds

While Paddington is currently leading the field in the eyes of the best betting sites, there are several runners who can compete for a coveted Group 1 win in the Sussex Stakes. These include Inspiral, Chaldean and the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes winner Modern Games, each of whom have triumphed in previous G1 races over one mile or more. So, here’s a closer look at the latest Sussex Stakes betting odds.

Triple Time6.00TBC8.
Modern Games6.50TBC9.
Master of The Seas13.00TBC17.0017.0017.0013.00
Al Riffa17.00TBC21.0021.0017.0017.00
Isaac Shelby21.00TBC26.0017.0021.0021.00
Order of Australia21.00TBC26.0026.0026.0021.00

🏇 Sussex Stakes Betting Preview

Next in this Sussex Stakes final preview, I’m going to take a closer look at the three main contenders and why they’re tipped to do well at Goodwood.

1️⃣ Paddington

Paddington’s ascent into Grade 1 contention has been truly outstanding, as the colt has transitioned seamlessly from winning European Breeders’ Funds (EBF) maidens to sweeping all before him at G1 level. What’s even more incredible is that he only made his debut last September, with his recent triumphs at Ascot and in the Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas at Curragh testament to the work being done by trainer O’Brien.

In both of these races, Paddington was ridden superbly by Ryan Moore, as the colt timed his runs to perfection before surging clear of his rivals in the final straight. It’s hard to look past him completing a unique hattrick of G1 wins at Goodwood, even though he has yet to race in the type of firm conditions expected here.

2️⃣ Triple Time

If Paddington is to see his Group 1 winning sequence halted, the four-year-old colt Triple Time is the runner most likely to prevail in his stead. Certainly, this Kevin Ryan-trained colt has earned four flat race career wins and two further top-three finishes in just seven outings, while he returned from a 262-day break by winning the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot last time out.

Here, he recorded a maiden G1 win at the first time of asking, while vanquishing several Sussex Stakes rivals including second-favourite Inspiral and Charlie Appleby’s Modern Games. So, he’s also proven over a mile and in good form, although there remain concerns that his recent, extended absence could catch up with him at Goodwood.

3️⃣ Modern Games

Modern Games finished a disappointing fourth in the Queen Anne Stakes, being outpaced two furlongs from home despite being in touch with the leaders for most of the race. However, he did previously win the G1 l Shaqab Lockinge Stakes by 1½ lengths from Chindit at Newbury, so he’s seasoned and more than proven over the distance.

Interestingly, this four-year-old Charlie Appleby-trained colt has also placed in the top three in 13 of his 16 flat race outings, while he has contested 11 G1 events during his career. So, he remains a tough and durable contender, who offers excellent value as an each-way or free bet selection at Goodwood.

🔮 Sussex Stakes 2023 Prediction

Since finishing fifth on his debut in the Class 3 Charbonnel et Walker British EBF Maiden Stakes last September, Aidan O’Brien’s Paddington has enjoyed a steep ascent into Grade 1 contention. To this end, he has won five consecutive races and prevailed impressively in two Grade 1 outings, most notably the St James' Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out.

Here, he won in tremendous style over a mile, powering clear more than three furlongs out before cantering home by 3¾ lengths from Sussex Stakes rival Chaldean. Paddington also showcased his ability to travel well by winning the Group 1 Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas at the end of May, as he handled the tough Curragh track masterfully before pulling away in the final 110 yards.

Ultimately, Paddington is a deserved Sussex Stakes 2023 betting favourite, but he won’t have things all his own way at Goodwood. One of his main challengers will be the in-form four-year-old colt Triple Time, who’s trained by Kevin Ryan and delivered a true statement of intent by winning the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot last time out.

Here, he faced off against several of his Sussex Stakes rivals, including second-favourite Inspiral and Charlie Appleby’s Modern Games, taking a keen hold early on before edging in front as he entered the final furlong. Ultimately, he beat a fading Inspiral by a neck, while Modern Games finished in fourth and 3½ lengths behind the winner.

Despite his relative disappointment in the Queen Anne Stakes, Modern Games remains a strong contender over a mile or more and has won five of the 10 such races he has contested during his career. He has also placed in the top three in 13 of his 16 flat racing career starts to date, so he’s a durable and relatively seasoned four-year-old who represents excellent value at least as an each-way wager.

In terms of value, Triple Time probably represents the best outright bet at an average price of 7.00, and if he’s your pick to win the 2023 Sussex Stakes, I’d recommend that you bet as early as you can and before these odds start to drift. However, my pick is that the precocious Paddington will continue his remarkable career ascent by winning the Sussex Stakes, recording a third successive Group 1 victory in the process.

My Prediction – Paddington to Win!

⚡ The Best Sussex Stakes Betting Sites


Regardless of what you take from this Sussex Stakes preview and which runner you intend to back; you’ll need to identify the best sportsbooks with the most competitive prices.

To help you on your way, I’ve listed six of the best Sussex Stakes sports betting sites according to the bookmaker reviews at Betinireland.

SportsbookOur ReviewGo to Site
William Hill

🔍 Sussex Stakes Betting Tips

Now it’s time to offer some expert Sussex Stakes betting tips, which should help you to identify value in ante post odds and determine which runners are most likely to win. These tips are built on analysis of the Goodwood course and previous Sussex Stakes winners, particularly those who have triumphed in the last 20 years.

📌 Analyse Trainer and Jockey Form

While trainer Aidan O’Brien’s overall record at Goodwood isn’t overly impressive when compared to some of his rivals, he has excelled in the last 20 iterations of the Sussex Stakes.

In fact, he has won the race three times since 2003, while recording a further 10 placed finishes from just 30 runners in total. So, although his last win in this particular race came with The Gurkha in 2016, his runners have continued to perform consistently in the Sussex Stakes, while he’ll be represented by horses such as Order of Australia, Broadhurst and the aforementioned Paddington this time around.

This trend factor is certainly in favour of Paddington, while it’s interesting to note that jockey Ryan Moore rode the three-year-old colt to his most recent G1 triumphs at Ascot and Curragh. After all, Moore is also one of the most successful jockeys in recent Sussex Stakes history, having achieved one win and five placed finishes in 13 outings since 2003.

If O’Brien and Moore team up once again ahead of the 2023 Sussex Stakes, the precocious Paddington will be afforded the best possible chance of winning and delivering on his status as ante post favourite.

📌 Favour Middle Weight Runners

The weight carried by runners is another key consideration in flat horse racing betting, as this can directly impact speed and performance.

Weight handicaps are calculated using a number of factors, including a horse’s official rating (OR), their age and past performances. In the case of the Sussex Stakes, 64% of the last 20 winners have carried a weight of between 8st 13 lbs (125 lbs) and 9st 4 lbs (130 lbs), creating an optimal weight range when selecting potential winners and each-way bets.

Interestingly, this is another trend factor that favours Paddington, who will carry 9-3 due in part to his age and relative inexperience. Conversely, Triple Time and Modern Games will carry 9-10 into the race, while Inspiral’s weight will be 9st 7 lbs.

Another runner within the optimal age range is Andrew Balding’s 9.00-shot Chaldean, who finished second and 3¾ lengths behind Paddington in the recent St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

📌 Seek Out Prolific and Frequent Runners

Perhaps the most potent trend factor for the Sussex Stakes (at least since 2003) is when runners had at least two starts in the previous 90 days.

This has produced more than 10 winners in the timeframe and a positive LSP of +29.99, with this particular trend benefitting a couple of key runners in 2023.

Unsurprisingly, this number includes Paddington, who will have raced twice in the previous 90 days (at Ascot and Curragh) by the time he arrives under starter’s orders at the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday, 2nd August. Modern Games also raced at Ascot and Newbury during this timeframe, so both runners will be sharp and raring to go at Goodwood.

Conversely, Triple Time’s G1 win in the Queen Anne Stakes represented his first outing in 262 days, whereas Inspiral experienced a 248-day hiatus prior to his second-place finish in the Queen Anne Stakes on June 20th.

📌 Compare the Full Range of Odds

There are other prominent trend factors to consider ahead of the 2023 Sussex Stakes, although many of these are less insightful as they benefit a number of potential winners.

81% of the last 20 winners had previously won a group race, for example, but this is common among the fields for high-profile, G1 outings such as the Sussex Stakes. Similarly, 83% has recorded their most recent win over seven furlongs or a mile, with this applying to the four leading ante post favourites and several other potential contenders.

It’s also interesting to note that the starting favourite has won 12 of the last 20 renewals of this race, which isn’t necessarily a decisive trend but one that slightly benefits the talented Paddington.

However, this also hints at the relatively competitive nature of this race and the unpredictable impact that large fields can have on eventual horse racing outcomes. 40 runners are expected to compete for the 2023 Sussex Stakes, so it’s worth comparing the odds in full and measuring them against different datasets and trends before selecting potential winners.

🎁 Top Free Bets Offers for the Sussex Stakes

Any Sussex Stakes betting guide worth its salt must also provide an overview of the best and most relevant welcome offers. So, here’s a brief list of the best Sussex Stakes betting offers and a direct link for you to claim them!

Betting SiteOfferClaim
Get €20 in free bets when you wager €5
Earn up to €30 in free bets when you place a qualifying wager of €5
Earn a 100% Profit Boost up to €400
Bet €10 and earn €40 in free bets (plus a €10 casino bonus)
Bet €10 and get €50 in Free Bets
Bet €10 and earn €30 in Free Bets

📆 Sussex Stakes 2023 Schedule

The Sussex Stakes was first run back in 1878, and it remains one of the oldest races at the Glorious Goodwood festival. It’s a Group 1 flat race ran over one mile, while the 2023 iteration will take place on Wednesday, 2nd August (the second day of this year’s festival) at 15:35 GMT. Sponsored by Qatar, 40 runners aged three years and older will compete for a first prize of €567,100 and a total prize fund of around €1 million. It’s the only G1 race to take place on the second day of Goodwood, while it’s one of just three such events scheduled across the whole of the festival.

📊 Sussex Stakes Winners

2018Lightning SpearOisin MurphyGBDavid Simcock
2019Too Darn HotFrankie DettoriGBJohn Gosden
2020MohaaatherJim CrowleyGBMarcus Tregoning
2021Alcohol FreeOisin MurphyIREAndrew Balding
2022BaaeedJim CrowleyGBWilliam Haggas

❓ Frequently Asked Questions About the Sussex Stakes Betting

Who Won the Sussex Stakes Previously?

The excellent Baaeed won the 2022 iteration of this race, delivering on his status as the 1.17 starting favourite. Interestingly, only one of the many Sussex Stakes runners through history has ever prevailed twice, namely Frankel in 2011 and 2012.

How Do I Bet on the Sussex Stakes?

While you can attend the 2023 Sussex Stakes and bet in-person, placing ante post wagers online enables you to compare the odds in full while capitalising on the most competitive prices.

When is the Sussex Stakes?

This year’s Sussex Stakes will take place at 15:35 GMT on Wednesday, 2nd August, which is the second day of the 2023 Glorious Goodwood Festival.

Can you Bet on Sussex Stakes?

You sure can! The ante post prices have already been published for the 2023 Sussex Stakes, while I’d encourage you bet proactively when backing short priced favourites as their odds tend to shorten as the wagers start to come in!

Where to Bet on the Sussex Stakes?

You can bet online on the 2023 iteration of the race at any of Betinireland’s recommended sportsbooks, which enable you to wager with genuine peace of mind and simply wait for the Sussex Stakes results to come in!

Paddington to Win

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Horse Racing Betting Expert

Lewis Humphries is an experienced sports writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about horse racing festivals, football events, and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights.