King George Qatar Stakes Prediction & Preview, Tips & Odds (2024)

🏆 King George Qatar Stakes Prediction

Asfoora can be backed here at around 4.00, having won superbly in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out. She thrived in G1 company over the five-furlong distance, powering clear in the final 110 yards to prevail by a length from Regional. Ridden superbly by Oisin Murphy, she also coped admirably with the type of good-to-firm going that we can expect at Goodwood this week.

Her biggest rival here is likely to be Michael Appleby ‘Big Evs’, with this talented colt having won five of his eight career flat races to date and placed in the top three on seven occasions (87.5%). However, he trailed Asfoora by a length-and-a-half and came third in the aforementioned King Charles III Stakes, despite leading after a furlong and starting well. Overall, Asfoora may be a little too seasoned for her rival, and I’m tipping her to edge another close race here.

🏇 King George Qatar Stakes Betting Preview

Despite Asfoora being the ante-post favourite and my pick to win the 2024 King George Qatar Stakes, she won’t have things all her own way at Goodwood. So, let’s take a closer look at the three most likely contenders.

1️⃣ Asfoora

The five-year-old mare Asfoora is trained by the Henry Dwyer stable and has recorded nine wins in 20 flat career races to date. She has also placed in the top three in 13 of these outings (65%) while contesting a total of six races at G1 level so far. She’s certainly proven over the distance and has fared well in excellent company, so the King George field will hold no fears for her at all.

Seven of her nine career wins have also come in good-to-soft, good or good-to-firm going, so she should thrive in the summer conditions at Goodwood. Her superb victory in the King Charles III Stakes means that she’ll arrive in West Sussex in excellent form, too, and Asfoora undoubtedly offers value as either an outright or each-way pick.

Best Odds on Asfoora

• 4.00 at Boylesports
• 4.00 at Ladbrokes-sports
• 4.50 at William Hill Sport

2️⃣ Big Evs

Big Evs is two years younger than Asfoora and has contested 12 fewer races, but this three-year-old colt has a significantly higher win rate (62.5%). He will have also learned a great deal from his defeat to Asfoora in the King Charles III Stakes, as he seemed to run out of steam at Ascot as he was overhauled during the final 110 yards.

Big Evs, who is trained by Michael Appleby, has also previously competed and won at G1 level, including the coveted Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Santa Anita last November. He also won the C1 British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes at York in May. This will stand him in good stead at Goodwood, and Big Evs certainly offers exceptional value as an each-way pick.

Best Odds on Big Evs

• 4.50 at Boylesports
• 4.50 at Ladbrokes-sports
• 4.00 at William Hill Sport

3️⃣ Believing

According to the ante-post odds, the George Boughey-trained four-year-old Believing is the third favourite to triumph in the King George Qatar Stakes. Although this filly has only won four of her 17 flat career races to date (23.52%), she has placed eight times in total (47.05%) and will arrive at Goodwood in excellent form.

Last time out, she triumphed in the G2 Barberstown Castle Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh, taking the lead after two furlongs before pulling clear down the final stretch. She eventually won comfortably by 1¾ lengths in excellent company while thriving in the good conditions. She’s well priced at around 5.00, too, so it may be worth an each-way punt here.

Best Odds on Believing

• 4.50 at Boylesports
• 5.00 at Ladbrokes-sports
• 7.00 at William Hill Sport

⭐ King George Qatar Stakes Betting Tips

Clive Cox’s Jasour is also fancied to do well here, as is the 8.00-shot Starlust. So, how do you inform your picks and identify the best value markets? Here are some expert betting tips to keep in mind:

✅ Consider the Favourite Carefully

The last 20 King George Stakes renewals have seen eight starting favourites prevail (40%). However, the favourite has won in four of the previous six iterations, including the 1.44-shot Highfield Princess in 2023. This trend would seem to be in favour of Asfoora, although there’s very little between this talented mare and Big Evs in the eyes of bookmakers. Interestingly, the starting favourite has only once finished outside the top two in the previous seven years, so each-way betting is highly recommended here.

✅ Analyse Recent Performances at Ascot

Of the previous 20 King George Stakes winners, eight have run at Ascot on their previous outing. A further five warmed up by racing at Newmarket in July, with this trend factor favouring both Asfoora and Big Evs (but counting against Believing, who won at Curragh in her last competitive outing). It should also be noted that no horse has won any of the last 10 King George Stakes from a starting price above 9.00, so any runner with longer odds will represent a huge risk in the win market.

✅ Look for Previous Goodwood Performances

It’s interesting to note that despite contesting 37 races between them, neither Asfoora nor Believing have ever competed at Goodwood before. However, the fancied Big Evs did race here in the 2023 Jaeger-Lecoultre Molecomb Stakes, winning by a neck from Purosangue over five furlongs after a thrilling horse race. This may afford the three-year-old colt an additional competitive advantage in the field, further strengthening his status as a solid each-way pick.

📊 King George Qatar Stakes Winners