Armagh v Donegal: Prediction & Odds - Ulster Football Finals

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TimetableSunday 12th May at 16:00 GMT
PredictionDonegal To Win!
OddsDonegal to Win @ 1.83
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.83
Bet €100 and win €183 if Donegal win.
Palm​slots Sport
Odds : 1.80
Bet €100 and win €180 if Donegal win.
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.80
Bet €100 and win €180 if Donegal win.

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The 2024 Ulster Championship final will see Gaelic football’s nearly men Armagh take on Donegal at St. Tiernach's Park in Clones, in a repeat of the Allianz Division Two finale. Donegal prevailed by a single point at Croke Park on March 31st, while Armagh were also defeated on penalties by Derry in the 2023 Ulster Championship final. ‘The Orchard County’ haven’t lifted the Ulster provincial title since 2008, while this will be only their second final appearance in 16 years. Conversely, Donegal won successive titles in 2018 and 2019, while finishing as runners-up in 2020. But which of these two evenly matched teams will prevail this time around?

🏆 Armagh v Donegal Prediction

Despite Armagh’s provincial title hiatus and last-gasp defeat to ‘The Forgotten County’ in the Division 2 final, Kieran McGeeney’s men have still enjoyed a positive year in 2024 and achieved promotion to the National Football League’s top flight. Forward Rory Grugan has been key to their promotion and contributed five crucial points in the narrow semi-final victory over Down.

However, Donegal followed up their Division 2 final triumph with a stunning Ulster quarter-final win over favourites Derry on April 20th. The Division 1 champions were attempting to win the provincial championship for a third consecutive year, but Donegal struck four unanswered goals and showcased superb levels of defensive organisation to prevail by six points at Celtic Park.

Interestingly, they needed extra time to defeat Tyrone in the last four at the same venue, while Donegal’s two head-to-head clashes with Armagh this season have produced similarly close encounters. The Division 2 showpiece was only settled by a stoppage-time point from Aaron Doherty, for example, while Rian O’Neill and Shane O’Donnell exchanged similarly late scores to tie an intense Allianz Division 2 match on February 25th.

However, Donegal have won the last three Ulster Championship clashes with Armagh since 2014, including a superb 12-point victory in November 2020. Skipper Paddy McBrearty will also feature having missed the Division 2 final with a leg injury, with the right corner forward having contributed one goal and 26 points during the National League campaign. He’ll make a huge difference at St. Tiernach's Park, and I’m tipping Donegal to ensure that Armagh suffers another year of hurt.

My Prediction: 🏆Donegal to win!

💯 Armagh vs Donegal Odds

As usual, the best betting sites have published a diverse selection of markets ahead of the Ulster Championship final between Armagh and Donegal. These include handicap betting and picking the winning margin during normal time, in addition to wagering on which team will lead at half-time. Of course, the win market remains the single most popular option, with Donegal established as the narrow pre-game favourites at the time of writing.

Armagh vs Donegal: Match Winner

You can back Donegal to prevail at an average price of 1.80, implying a 55.55% probability of a win for the Forgotten County. Conversely, Armagh are priced at around 2.50 to triumph and claim their first provincial title since 2008, suggesting that they have a 40% chance of achieving this objective. The draw is statistically the least likely outcome during the 70 minutes, with odds of 7.50 implying a 13.33% probability of the match ending tied and entering a period of extra time.

Armagh to Win 2.38 2.63 2.63 2.50 2.38
Donegal to Win 1.80 1.73 1.73 1.80 1.83
Draw 8.00 7.00 7.50 7.00 8.00

Armagh vs Donegal - Betting Tips

armagh-v-donegal-logo armagh-v-donegal-logo

Whichever team you think will win the Ulster Championship final between Armagh and Donegal, the key is to identify the best value betting markets and wagers. You may even want to engage in combination betting, in order to create further value and get the absolute most from your bankroll. Here are some betting tips and insights to help you on your way!

  • Tip 1: Back Donegal to Win Outright: The win market reflects the evenly matched nature of both teams, with little to choose between them during the Allianz National League or Division 2 final. Armagh’s offence has also been boosted by the addition of Conleth Gilligan to their backroom team, adding a new and exciting dimension to their playing style. However, Donegal were simply superb when defeating provincial favourites Derry in the Ulster quarterfinals, while the return to fitness of influential captain Paddy McBrearty will afford them a further edge at St. Tiernach's Park. So, consider backing Donegal to win outright at a price of 1.83 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Donegal to Win by Between 1 and 3 Points: The Allianz Division 2 match between these sides ended all square at the Athletic Grounds on February 25th, while the National League final was settled by just a single point and Aaron Doherty’s injury time strike. Armagh and Donegal also prevailed in incredibly tight semi-finals against Down and Tyrone respectively, after relatively dominant performances in the last eight. So, I expect another tense and tight encounter in Clones, and there may be some value in backing Donegal to win by between 1 and 3 points at the enhanced price of 3.75 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Conor Turbitt as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you have one or more available free bets on your account, you may want to enter the anytime goalscorer market. Interestingly, Armagh struck nine goals in their seven National League Division 2 matches (compared to just five for Donegal), with left corner forward Conor Turbitt contributing two of these (along with 24 points). He also scored four goals and 47 points for Donegal in all competitions since his debut in 2021 and offers value as an anytime scorer at the competitive price of 4.75 with BoyleSports.

⚽ Armagh Update

Armagh have lost one of their previous six matches since March 3rd, with their sole defeat coming against Donegal in the National League Division 2 final. They also shared the spoils with Cork following a thrilling draw at Páirc Uí Chaoimh on March 23rd, before recording consecutive victories over Fermanagh and Down to reach the Ulster final. Interestingly, 2024 has also seen Armagh become far more varied in their attacking play, making better use of long deliveries to afford star forwards Turbitt and Rory Grugan more possession in dangerous areas. Grugan also kicked 2-18 in Armagh’s seven National League outings this year and will pose a huge threat to the Donegal defence at the weekend.

Last 5 Games
Armagh 0-13
Down 2-6
Ulster Senior Football Championship
Fermanagh 0-9
Armagh 3-11
Ulster Senior Football Championship
Armagh 0-14
Donegal 0-15
Allianz Football League Roinn 2 - Final
Cork 2-16
Armagh 2-16
Allianz Football League Roinn 2
Armagh 2-21
Cavan 0-12
Allianz Football League Roinn 2

Armagh manager Kieran McGeeney faces a big selection dilemma this weekend, with first choice goalkeeper Ethan Rafferty now fit again after recovering from a niggling ankle problem. However, his replacement Blaine Hughes has been in superb form for the Forgotten County, conceding just two goals in nine league and championship matches in 2024. I expect Hughes to keep his place in the starting lineup, but Rafferty’s experience and versatility could well prove useful from the bench.

⚽ Donegal Update

Donegal remain unbeaten in all nine competitive matches in 2024, winning six consecutively since a thrilling 24-point draw with Armagh at the Athletic Grounds on February 25th. This sequence includes Donegal’s stunning quarterfinal win over Ulster favourites Derry, which was built on excellent defensive organisation and swift counterattacking through Ryan McHugh and Daire O'Baoill. The latter already has four goals this season (including a brace and two exquisite lobs against Derry) and is particularly dangerous during attacking transitions. I certainly expect the Forgotten County to play on the break against an attack-minded Armagh team, and their defensive solidity may prove crucial in Clones.

Last 5 Games
Donegal 0-18Tyrone 0-16 28.04.24Ulster Senior Football Championship
Derry 0-17Donegal 4-11 20.04.24Ulster Senior Football Championship
Armagh 0-14Donegal 0-15 31.03.24Allianz Football League Roinn 2 - Final
Donegal 1-18Meath 1-10 23.03.24Allianz Football League Roinn 2
Kildare 1-8Donegal 0-17 16.03.24Allianz Football League Roinn 2

Donegal have suffered a significant injury crisis through much of 2024, although key players Ryan McHugh and aforementioned skipper Patrick McBreaty are available after extended absences. Interestingly, Donegal are unbeaten in the 10 matches that McBreaty has started since the return of manager Jim McGuinness last summer, so his presence could have a key bearing on the outcome at St. Tiernach's Park this weekend.

👕Armagh vs Donegal - Potential Lineups

Pos. Armagh6-2-6 Donegal6-2-6 Pos.
Goalkeeper B. Hughes S. Patton Goalkeeper
Right Corner-Back P. Burns M. Curran Right Corner-Back
Half-Back A. McKay B. McCole Half-Back
Left Corner-Back P. McGrane C. Moore Left Corner-Back
Right Half-Back J. McElroy R. McHugh Right Half-Back
Centre Half-Back C. Mackin C. McGonagle Centre Half-Back
Left Half-Back A. Forker P. Morgan Left Half-Back
Midfielder R. O'Neill J. McGee Midfielder
Midfielder B. Crealey M. Langan Midfielder
Right Half-Forward S. Campbell S. O'Donnell Right Half-Forward
Centre Half-Forward R. Grugan C. Thompson Centre Half-Forward
Left Half-Forward O. Conaty Daire Ó Baoill Left Half-Forward
Right Corner-Forward C. Turbitt P. McBrearty Right Corner-Forward
Full Forward A. Murnin O. Gallen Full Forward
Left Corner-Forward Jarlath Og Burns N. O'Donnell Full Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football and GAA writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and the GAA provincial championships, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.