Japan v Italy: Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - Rugby Union 2024

💯 Japan v Italy Betting Odds Summer Internationals

Ireland’s leading rugby bookmakers have already published a diverse range of betting lines and markets ahead of the Test match between Japan and Italy. Aside from the enduring popular win market, you can also place strategic Asian handicaps and wager on the highest scoring half during the match, creating more flexibility in terms of how you stake your hard-earned cash. Let’s appraise the most popular Japan v Italy betting markets!

🥇 Japan v Italy Winner Odds

Unsurprisingly, in-form Italy are the pre-match favourites to defeat Japan at the Sapporo Dome. Their odds of 1.33 imply a 75.18% of a win for the Azzurri, who have triumphed in five of their previous six competitive matches against Japan. As for the home side, they can be backed at around 3.33, suggesting that they have a 30.03% chance of emerging victorious in front of their own fans. The good news is that the draw is priced at a distant 26.00, implying just a 3.84% probability of the match ending tied.

Team
Japan	3.03	3.33	3.33	3.36	3.03
Draw	26.00	26.00	26.00	12.00	26.00
Italy	1.36	1.33	1.33	1.34	1.36

🏮 Japan v Italy Asian Handicap Odds

In order to create value in match betting, you could consider applying an Asian handicap to one team or the other. In this case, Italy have a significant advantage in terms of quality and their most recent form, so there may be some value in backing them to win with a nominal points handicap of -7.5 points. Similarly, you could pick Japan to win with a handicap of +7.5 points, creating a scenario where you can win if the Brave Blossoms triumph or are defeated by a margin of seven points or less.

Asian Handicap
Italy (-7.5)	1.88	1.80	1.80	-	1.88
Japan (+7.5)	1.88	1.85	1.85	-	1.88

➕ Japan v Italy Highest Scoring Half Odds

If you’re interested in accessing even money markets that unlock higher implied probability values, you could wager on the highest scoring half at the Sapporo Dome. In this case, I expect Italy to start quickly and with purpose, especially given the fluidity of their recent performances and how dominant they were in the opening 40 minutes against Tonga last time out. Because of this, there may be some value in backing the first half to see the highest number of points scored overall.

Highest Scoring Half
First	2.10	-	-	1.95	2.10
Second	1.88	-	-	1.93	1.88
Tie	20.00	-	-	12.00	20.00

n.b. Odds are accurate at the time of writing. Odds are subject to change.

🔍 Japan v Italy Prediction

After being awarded the dreaded wooden spoon in 18 Six Nations renewals since their debut in 2000, Italy finally found their form and confidence in 2024. In fact, they produced their best ever Six Nation performance, earning 11 points and a fifth place finish while defeating Wales and Scotland (and drawing superbly with runners-up France in Villeneuve-d'Ascq).

This success has been both overdue and hard-earned, while it has coincided with the maturity of incredibly talented players such as Juan Ignacio Brex, Michele Lamaro and full-back Ange Capuozzo. Fly half and kicker Paolo Garbisi has also emerged as an exceptional leader, while he has now scored 150 points in 31 appearances for the Azzurri.

While Japan also have some exciting talent, most of their players lack consistency and continue to ply their trade in the lower tier Japanese league. They’ve also failed to kick on after their superb campaign in the 2015 World Cup, which saw them famously beat South Africa 34-32 and only narrowly miss out on the knockout phase.

Head coach Eddie Jones (of England fame) was appointed as Japan’s head coach in January, but the project of creating a competitive team on the world stage is a long-term one. The Brave Blossom’s home form has also been poor of late, and it’s hard to see beyond a comfortable win for Italy in Sapporo this weekend.

But what are the precise factors that are likely to impact the result at the Sapporo Dome? Here are a few to keep in mind:

1. Form: Although home field advantage can be influential in rugby, it cannot be denied that Japan have struggled in front of their own fans of late. The Azzurri have also won previously in Japan, while they drew with France and beat Wales on the road during the 2024 Six Nations. Italy are also in far superior form overall (notwithstanding their defeat against Samoa earlier this month), and should prove far too strong for their opponents.
2. Head-to-Head Records: Overall, the Azzurri have beaten Japan in five of the six competitive matches that the two teams have contested, equating to an impressive win-rate of 83.33%. Japan’s sole triumph over Italy came in June 2018 in a friendly match, although this victory was at least achieved at home. Ultimately, there’s nothing to suggest anything other than an Italian win this weekend, especially from a statistical perspective.
3. World Rankings: Italy’s stellar 2024 and Six Nations improvement has seen the country achieve a world ranking of ninth at the time of writing. The Azzurri have a cumulative points tally of 77.99, whereas their opponents currently rank 12th in the world with 74.04 points. However, although there’s little to choose between the two teams in the rankings, both teams’ respective form during the last 12 months has been markedly different.
4. Weather Conditions: Japan’s climate tends to be humid and wet, and the latest forecast is predicting a high chance of rain in Sapporo on Sunday. This will arguably suit an increasingly fluid and attack-oriented Italian team, who ran in five tries against Tonga and three first-half efforts in the narrow defeat in Samoa. However, Japan also boast solid handling and prefer to run with the ball in hand.
5. Tactics and Playing Styles: As I’ve touched on, both Italy and Japan prefer to adopt a fluid running game, which requires them to create genuine width and create significant gaps in the centre for players like Capuozzo. The issue for Japan is that Italy have the superior backs and attacking players, while their experience of playing in the Six Nations will enable them to cope better with a high-tempo, end-to-end encounter.

As you can see, all roads seem to point to an Italian win this weekend, in a potentially open and high-scoring encounter where the Azzurri could prevail by a significant margin!

✔️ Japan v Italy Betting Tips

While I am tipping Italy to win this match comfortably, this means little if you want to eschew the win market and seek out alternative betting lines. So, I’ve prepared a number of betting tips and insights to help inform your full range of selections!

1️⃣Match Winner: Italy to Win

While Italy’s recent defeat against Samoa may offer Japan hope, the Brave Blossoms lack the physicality or set piece game to intimidate the Azzurri in the same way. Italy also have an exceptional head-to-head record against the Blossoms, who are still reeling from recent and conclusive home defeats against Georgia and England. The Italian side is also far more experienced and durable than their opponents this weekend, so consider backing them to win at a price of 3.36 with Golden Bet Sports.

2️⃣ Asian Handicap Winner: Italy (-7.5)

The Italians powered into a 15-0 half-time lead against Tonga last time out, controlling the game through a combination of accurate kicking and dynamic wing play. They ultimately triumphed by 22 points, against side that arguably operates on a similar level to Japan. Although the Blossoms only lost by two points to Georgia, the Three Lions thrashed them by 35 points on June 22nd, and Italy should be able to record a convincing victory here. You can get on them to win with a nominal handicap of -7.5 points at the enhanced price of 1.88 with Directionbet Sport.

3️⃣ Highest Scoring Half - Second Half

Typically, it’s the second half of Test matches that are the highest scoring, as teams begin to tire and the best sides utilize their benches. While Italy definitely boast superior squad depth to Japan, however, I think that the Azzurri will start fast at the Sapporo Dome and could impose their gameplan early. If this is the case, I expect them to create multiple try scoring opportunities in the first 40 minutes, before potentially managing the game in the second half. So, consider the first half being the highest scoring here at a price of 2.10 with Directionbet.

🎁 Italy v Japan Free Bets and Rugby Betting Promotions

At this stage, you should have an excellent idea of how to wager on the match between Japan and Italy this weekend. Before you select a sportsbook and place your wagers, however, I’d encourage you to check out the latest free bet offers from Ireland’s leading sportsbooks. These are detailed below, while you can also check out our detailed bookmaker reviews to compare the main terms and conditions in full!

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Terms and conditions apply. Full terms can be found on selected website.

• www.begambleaware.org

📰 Summer Internationals News for Japan v Italy on X

Another key factor that can impact match outcomes and your individual betting selections is team news. This can help you to learn about potential injuries and absentees, which may make it easier to identify so-called “value bets”. You can check out the respective Twitter feeds and latest news for Japan and Italy below!

🌸 Japan News

🛵 Italy Updates

📺 Previous Japan v Italy Highlights

These two teams last met in 2023, when Italy thumped Japan by a margin of 42-21. This was an open and incredibly high scoring match, and one that may offer a template for what to expect this weekend. You can check out the highlights below!

⚡ Japan v Italy Prediction Overview

✒️ Sheldon Muchmore - iGaming and Sports Betting Enthusiast

This Japan vs Italy prediction was written by Sheldon Muchmore.

Sheldon is a sports tipster and online casino writer from the UK who has a passion for a variety of sports, especially football, rugby, and cricket. He has been involved in the sports betting industry for many years now, and is always eager to provide successful predictions. He is also a dab hand when it comes to the iGaming sector as he has written many casino and slot game reviews.