Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 23rd April 24
PredictionBack Arsenal to Win!
Odds1.55
BookmakerRoyalistplay Sports
Back Arsenal to Win!
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Odds : 1.55
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Arsenal returned to the top of the Premier League table with a 2-0 win at Wolves over the weekend over the weekend, although Manchester City remain just two points behind with a game in hand. Of course, their gameweek 34 opponents Chelsea were defeated by Pep Guardiola’s team in the FA Cup semi-final on Saturday, but the Blues are unbeaten in eight league matches and retain the EPL’s in-form player in Cole Palmer. So, will the Gunners continue their title charge against their London rivals, or can the Blues maintain their recent top-flight resurgence under Mauricio Pochettino? Here’s my take and the latest odds from the leading football betting sites.

🏆 Arsenal vs Chelsea EPL Prediction

These two teams contested a thrilling match in the reverse fixture back on October 21st, during which Arsenal recovered a two-goal deficit to earn a point at Stamford Bridge. However, they struggled against Chelsea’s intensity in West London, with the Blues much more dangerous and accumulating a higher xG (1.72 vs just 1.06).

There was little between these two sides in October, but Arsenal remain a staggering 27 points clear of Chelsea in the table. However, much of this has to do with the Blues' wastefulness in front of goal, as they’ve missed 59 big chances in this season’s Premier League and underperformed their xG by -4.72 goals. Conversely, the Gunners have outperformed their xG of 70.56 by +6.44 goals and produced an impressive goals-per-shot ratio of 0.12.

Although both teams like to play with the ball, Arsenal averages slightly more possession with 59.5% per 90 minutes. So, I expect them to largely control proceedings at the Emirates, while Chelsea look to counter at pace and attack the wide areas. Remember, the Blues have produced 21 defensive actions that have led to an attempt on goal this season (second only to Everton), highlighting their willingness to be direct in transition.

Overall, this should be another tight game in which Arsenal shade possession and Chelsea create some high-quality chances on the break. However, the Gunners’ have been clinical in front of goal throughout the 2023/24 campaign, and this could make the difference as they look to retain their slender lead at the top of the EPL.

My Prediction: 🏆 Arsenal 2 – 1 Chelsea ⚽

💯 Arsenal vs Chelsea EPL Match Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have already priced a huge range of markets ahead of the clash between Arsenal and Chelsea, in addition to the match winner. These include both teams to score and totals betting, where you back the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. Here are the very latest betting odds.

🏅 Arsenal vs Chelsea: Match Winner

Arsenal are the heavy favourites to defeat Chelsea in North London, with their average price of 1.50 implying a 66.66% probability of a home win. However, you can back the Blues to prevail at odds of around 5.40, which means that Pochettino’s men have just an 18.51% of claiming just their sixth EPL away win of the season.

Team
Arsenal to Win 1.50 1.55 1.50 1.55 1.47
Chelsea to Win 5.50 5.25 5.40 5.50 5.25
Draw 4.50 4.50 4.70 5.00 4.50

⚽ Arsenal vs Chelsea: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in nine of Arsenal’s 16 home matches this season (56%), with the Gunners conceding more at the Emirates than they have on the road. They’ve kept five clean sheets and failed to score twice in front of their own fans. Both sides have found the net in 12 of Chelsea’s 15 away EPL games in 2023/24 (80%), including their last seven since December 10th. The Blues have kept just two clean sheets on the road and drawn the same number of blanks.

Yes/No
Yes 1.55 1.60 1.52 1.53 1.57
No 2.30 2.30 2.42 2.25 2.25

🥅 Arsenal vs Chelsea: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Arsenal’s 16 home matches in 2023/24 have produced a total of 53 goals at a rate of 3.31 per game. The Gunners have scored 38 of these at a rate of 2.37 per 90 minutes. Interestingly, Chelsea’s 15 away encounters have also yielded 53 goals at the slightly higher rate of 3.53 per 90. However, they’ve conceded 27 of these at a rate of 1.80 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals 1.40 1.45 1.43 1.44 1.44
Under 2.5 Goals 2.60 2.70 2.64 2.55 2.63

✔️ Arsenal vs Chelsea - Betting Tips

While Arsenal are the clear favourites to defeat Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium and have only lost one of their last eight EPL matches against the Blues, derby matches of this type are often tight and incredibly difficult to call. So, what are the most insightful betting tips ahead of the latest iteration of this classic rivalry?

  • Tip 1: Back Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: The pre-game odds imply a 64.51% probability of both teams scoring at the Emirates, based in part on the fact that Chelsea haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road in 2024. The Blues have also found the net in their previous seven EPL away matches. As for Arsenal, they’ve kept just two clean sheets in seven games at home since December 17th, and have scored in 14 of their 16 encounters at the Emirates this season (88%). So, consider backing Arsenal to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 2.75 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Cole Palmer as an Anytime Goalscorer: Cole Palmer has been a revelation for the Blues since he joined from Man City in the summer, contributing 20 goals and nine assists in just 28 EPL appearances. His 20 goals have come from 73 shots and an xG of just 14.9, while he has emerged as a surprise contender for the Golden Boot in 2023/24. He has scored 10 goals in his previous five outings (including two hattricks) and remains the Blues’ designated penalty taker, so consider backing him as an anytime scorer at the competitive price of 3.00 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back The First Half to See the Most Goals: If you want to make use of one of your available free bets, you could consider betting on the highest scoring half. Certainly, no team has scored more than Arsenal’s 35 goals during the first half of EPL games this season, an incredible 14 of which have come between minutes 31 and 45. Chelsea have also scored 30 of their 61 Premier League goals in the first 45 minutes too (49%), so there’s value in backing the first half to see the most goals here at a price of 3.20 with PalmSlots Sports.

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

Arsenal were impressive during their 2-0 win at Wolves at the weekend, especially after a chastening week that had seen them lose at home to Villa and exit the Champions League to Bayern Munich. This means that they’ve now won 11 and lost just one of their previous 13 Premier League matches since the turn of the year, earning 34 from the 39 points available to them during this sequence. The 2-0 reversal to Villa at the Emirates also snapped a five-game winning run at home, since West Ham prevailed by the exact same scoreline back on December 28th, 2023.

Last 5 Games
Wolves 0
Arsenal 2
20.04.24
Premier League
Bayern Munich 1
Arsenal 0
17.04.24
UEFA Champions League
Arsenal 0
Aston Villa 2
14.04.24
Premier League
Arsenal 2
Bayern Munich 2
09.04.24
UEFA Champions League
Brighton 0
Arsenal 3
06.04.24
Premier League

Arsenal are virtually at full strength ahead of the visit of Chelsea, which is an incredible luxury at this stage of the season. In fact, their only confirmed absentee is Dutch defender Jurrien Timber, who continues to recover from the serious ACL injury he incurred in the opening game of the season. He’s now back in training and expected to feature again before the end of the 2023/24 campaign.

PlayerReason
Jurrien Timber ACL Injury

2️⃣ Chelsea Update

Chelsea are currently embarked on an eight game unbeaten run in the Premier League, since a 4-2 home defeat to Wolves on February 4th. This is their longest such run under Mauricio Pochettino, although the Blues have yet to string together successive victories during the sequence. Overall, they’ve won four and drawn four of their last 10 EPL matches, taking 16 points from the 30 available to them since January 13th. The Blues have also shipped an alarming 21 goals during this period, while they haven’t kept a Premier League clean sheet on the road in 12 outings since a 2-0 win at Fulham on October 2nd.

Last 5 Games
Man City 1
Chelsea 0
20.04.24
FA Cup
Chelsea 6
Everton 0
15.04.24
Premier League
Sheffield United 2
Chelsea 2
07.04.24
Premier League
Chelsea 4
Man United 3
04.04.24
Premier League
Chelsea 2
Burnley 2
30.03.24
Premier League

Chelsea will remain without defender Levi Colwill against the Gunners, as he nears a return after an ankle injury. Otherwise, both Christopher Nkunku (thigh injury) and club captain Reece James (hamstring) are sidelined until May, while Lesley Ugochukwu (thigh) won’t return until the final two weeks of the season. Both Romeo Lavia (thigh) and Wesley Fofana (knee) have been ruled out for the remainder of the 2023/24 campaign, although they should be fit to participate in pre-season.

PlayerReason
Levi Colwill Ankle Injury
Christopher Nkunku Thigh Injury
Reece James Hamstring Injury
Lesley Ugochukwu Thigh Injury
Romeo Lavia Thigh Injury
Wesley Fofana Knee Injury

👕 Arsenal vs Chelsea - Potential Lineups

Pos. Arsenal 4-3-3 Chelsea 4-2-3-1 Pos.
Goalkeeper D. Raya D. Petrović Goalkeeper
Right Back B. White M. Gusto Right Back
Centre Back W. Saliba A. Disasi Centre Back
Centre Back Gabriel T. Silva Centre Back
Left Back J. Kiwior B. Chilwell Left Back
Midfielder M. Ødegaard M. Caicedo Midfielder
Midfielder D. Rice E. Fernandez Midfielder
Midfielder T. Partey C. Gallagher Midfielder
Wide Forward B. Saka C. Palmer Wide Forward
Striker K. Havertz N. Jackson Striker
Wide Forward G. Martinelli M. Mudryk Wide Forward

Back Arsenal to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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