Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Arsenal vs Chelsea EPL Prediction

These two teams contested a thrilling match in the reverse fixture back on October 21st, during which Arsenal recovered a two-goal deficit to earn a point at Stamford Bridge. However, they struggled against Chelsea’s intensity in West London, with the Blues much more dangerous and accumulating a higher xG (1.72 vs just 1.06).

There was little between these two sides in October, but Arsenal remain a staggering 27 points clear of Chelsea in the table. However, much of this has to do with the Blues' wastefulness in front of goal, as they’ve missed 59 big chances in this season’s Premier League and underperformed their xG by -4.72 goals. Conversely, the Gunners have outperformed their xG of 70.56 by +6.44 goals and produced an impressive goals-per-shot ratio of 0.12.

Although both teams like to play with the ball, Arsenal averages slightly more possession with 59.5% per 90 minutes. So, I expect them to largely control proceedings at the Emirates, while Chelsea look to counter at pace and attack the wide areas. Remember, the Blues have produced 21 defensive actions that have led to an attempt on goal this season (second only to Everton), highlighting their willingness to be direct in transition.

Overall, this should be another tight game in which Arsenal shade possession and Chelsea create some high-quality chances on the break. However, the Gunners’ have been clinical in front of goal throughout the 2023/24 campaign, and this could make the difference as they look to retain their slender lead at the top of the EPL.

💯 Arsenal vs Chelsea EPL Match Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have already priced a huge range of markets ahead of the clash between Arsenal and Chelsea, in addition to the match winner. These include both teams to score and totals betting, where you back the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. Here are the very latest betting odds.

🏅 Arsenal vs Chelsea: Match Winner

Arsenal are the heavy favourites to defeat Chelsea in North London, with their average price of 1.50 implying a 66.66% probability of a home win. However, you can back the Blues to prevail at odds of around 5.40, which means that Pochettino’s men have just an 18.51% of claiming just their sixth EPL away win of the season.

Team
Arsenal to Win	1.50	1.55	1.50	1.55	1.47
Chelsea to Win	5.50	5.25	5.40	5.50	5.25
Draw	4.50	4.50	4.70	5.00	4.50

⚽ Arsenal vs Chelsea: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in nine of Arsenal’s 16 home matches this season (56%), with the Gunners conceding more at the Emirates than they have on the road. They’ve kept five clean sheets and failed to score twice in front of their own fans. Both sides have found the net in 12 of Chelsea’s 15 away EPL games in 2023/24 (80%), including their last seven since December 10th. The Blues have kept just two clean sheets on the road and drawn the same number of blanks.

Yes/No
Yes	1.55	1.60	1.52	1.53	1.57
No	2.30	2.30	2.42	2.25	2.25

🥅 Arsenal vs Chelsea: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Arsenal’s 16 home matches in 2023/24 have produced a total of 53 goals at a rate of 3.31 per game. The Gunners have scored 38 of these at a rate of 2.37 per 90 minutes. Interestingly, Chelsea’s 15 away encounters have also yielded 53 goals at the slightly higher rate of 3.53 per 90. However, they’ve conceded 27 of these at a rate of 1.80 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.40	1.45	1.43	1.44	1.44
Under 2.5 Goals	2.60	2.70	2.64	2.55	2.63

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

Arsenal were impressive during their 2-0 win at Wolves at the weekend, especially after a chastening week that had seen them lose at home to Villa and exit the Champions League to Bayern Munich. This means that they’ve now won 11 and lost just one of their previous 13 Premier League matches since the turn of the year, earning 34 from the 39 points available to them during this sequence. The 2-0 reversal to Villa at the Emirates also snapped a five-game winning run at home, since West Ham prevailed by the exact same scoreline back on December 28th, 2023.

Arsenal are virtually at full strength ahead of the visit of Chelsea, which is an incredible luxury at this stage of the season. In fact, their only confirmed absentee is Dutch defender Jurrien Timber, who continues to recover from the serious ACL injury he incurred in the opening game of the season. He’s now back in training and expected to feature again before the end of the 2023/24 campaign.

2️⃣ Chelsea Update

Chelsea are currently embarked on an eight game unbeaten run in the Premier League, since a 4-2 home defeat to Wolves on February 4th. This is their longest such run under Mauricio Pochettino, although the Blues have yet to string together successive victories during the sequence. Overall, they’ve won four and drawn four of their last 10 EPL matches, taking 16 points from the 30 available to them since January 13th. The Blues have also shipped an alarming 21 goals during this period, while they haven’t kept a Premier League clean sheet on the road in 12 outings since a 2-0 win at Fulham on October 2nd.

Chelsea will remain without defender Levi Colwill against the Gunners, as he nears a return after an ankle injury. Otherwise, both Christopher Nkunku (thigh injury) and club captain Reece James (hamstring) are sidelined until May, while Lesley Ugochukwu (thigh) won’t return until the final two weeks of the season. Both Romeo Lavia (thigh) and Wesley Fofana (knee) have been ruled out for the remainder of the 2023/24 campaign, although they should be fit to participate in pre-season.

👕 Arsenal vs Chelsea - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.