Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 20:00 GMT 17th April 24 |
| Prediction | Bayern To Win! |
| Odds | @2.38 |
| Bookmaker | Legend Play Sports |
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While Arsenal’s EPL title challenge may have faltered following a 2-0 home defeat to Aston Villa at the weekend, they have an immediate chance to bounce back in the Champions League. However, they’ll face an even tougher challenge against a wounded Bayern Munich side in the second leg of their quarterfinal tie, with the Bavarians having been denied a 12th-straight Bundesliga title by Bayer Leverkusen. Former Spurs striker Harry Kane will also be looking to add to his career haul of 15 goals against the Gunners, as he continues his own pursuit of a first major trophy. Of course, the tie is delicately poised at 2-2, but which team do I think will prevail at the Allianz Arena?
🏆 Bayern Munich vs Arsenal UCL Prediction
Although Arsenal boasted 60% possession and mustered 13 attempts at goal in the first leg (Bayern only managed eight), the Gunners looked open defensively and struggled to create high-quality chances. To this end, they accumulated an xG of just 1.35 during the 90 minutes, compared to an impressive 2.28 for Bayern.
This is typical of Arsenal’s 2023/24 Champions League campaign so far, with their 19 goals coming from just 39 shots on target. This translates into a goals-per-shot ratio of 0.46 (the highest such value in the competition), while the Gunners have also outperformed their collective xG of 13.1 by +5.9 goals.
Although Bayern aren’t as efficient in the attacking third, they average 26.22 shot-creating actions per 90 and have attempted 174 live passes that led to a strike on goal in the UCL. They showcased this creativity superbly at the Emirates, attacking intelligently down the flanks and maintaining a mid-block that enabled them to launch rapid counters.
While Bayern were happy to let Arsenal dictate at the Emirates, they average 56.4% possession per 90 in the UCL and will have more of the ball in the second leg. They’re also unbeaten in 14 home UCL matches since a 3-2 defeat to PSG on April 7th 2021, and in Tuchel they have a manager who has already navigated his way to two Champions League finals.
My Prediction: 🏆 Bayern Munich 2 – 1 Arsenal⚽
💯 Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Match Odds
Ireland’s best betting sites have published a diverse range of odds ahead of the second-leg clash between Bayern and Arsenal. These include the match winner and result, both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored during the 90 minutes. Here’s my analysis of these markets and how they’re currently being priced.
🏅 Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: Match Winner
While Arsenal were the favourites to prevail during the first leg, the reverse is true ahead of the clash at the Allianz Arena. Bayern are priced at around 2.37 to defeat the Gunners, implying a 42.19% probability of a home win. Conversely, you can bet on Arsenal to win at odds of 2.74, so Mikel Arteta’s men have a 36.49% of emerging victorious. The Bavarians are also favourites to reach the UCL semi-finals, with odds of 1.80 implying a 55.55% probability of them winning the tie.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to Win | 2.30 | 2.38 | 2.37 | 2.37 | 2.38 |
| Arsenal to Win | 2.80 | 2.75 | 2.74 | 2.74 | 2.80 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
⚽ Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Bayern have contested 20 home matches this season, with both teams finding the net in eight of these fixtures (40%). Tuchel’s side have kept nine clean sheets at the Allianz Arena and failed to score on four occasions. Both teams have scored in nine of Arsenal’s 22 matches on the road this season (41%), with the Gunners keeping an impressive 11 clean sheets away from home and drawing four blanks.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.55 |
| No | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.49 | 2.49 | 2.50 |
🥅 Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Bayern’s 20 home games have been particularly open, producing 76 goals in total at a rate of 3.80 per 90 minutes. Incredibly, 24 of these goals have come in just three matches against VfL Bochum (7-0), Darmstadt 98 (8-0) and Mainz 05 (8-1). Arsenal’s 22 away fixtures have yielded 61 goals at the much lower rate of 2.77, with the Gunners conceding less than a goal a game on the road.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.57 | 1.65 | 1.58 | 1.58 | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.25 | 2.20 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.15 |
✔️ Bayern Munich vs Arsenal - Betting Tips
As you can see, there are plenty of betting markets accessible ahead of the second-leg clash between Bayern and Arsenal. You can target these with your real money bankroll or any available free bets that you have, with combination wagering likely to offer particular value here. Here are some expert betting tips to keep in mind!
- Tip 1: Back Bayern to Win and Both Teams to Score: Bayern are the narrow favourites to win over 90 minutes at the Allianz Arena, while the odds also imply a 66.66% probability of both teams scoring in Germany. This is despite Arsenal’s tally of 11 clean sheets on the road in all competitions, with Bayern having struck a total of 58 goals at the Allianz at the impressive rate of 2.90 per 90. Ultimately, there’s value in backing Bayern to win and both teams to score in Munich, especially at the enhanced price of 4.00 with Royalist Play.
- Tip 2: Back Harry Kane as an Anytime Scorer: Harry Kane predictably found the net in the first leg in North London, taking his career goals tally against the Gunners to 15 in just 20 appearances. What’s more, 24 of Kane’s 39 goals in all competitions this season have been scored at the Allianz Arena, with this tally including three Bundesliga hattricks. Kane is now the top UCL goalscorer in 2023/24 too, having notched seven goals from just 24 attempts on goal and an xG of 5.3. So, I’d recommend backing Kane as an anytime scorer at a price of 2.25 with LegendPlay.
- Tip 3: Back the First Goal to be Scored Between Minutes 31 and 40: Arsenal have been typically fast starters in this season’s Champions League, scoring 14 of their 19 goals in the first 45 minutes of games. Five of these came between minutes 31 and 45, during which time Bayern have also scored four times without reply. Because of this, there’s some value in betting on the first goal of the second leg to be scored between minutes 31 and 40, especially at the competitive price of 7.50 with LegendPlay. This is also an excellent use of any free bets that you have on your account.
1️⃣ Bayern Update
Bayern’s title challenge is now officially over, with Leverkusen having opened up an unassailable 16-point lead at the top of the Bundesliga with just five games to play. This caps a miserable and disjointed season for Bayern, who have already lost six games in 2024 in all competitions and will see manager Thomas Tuchel step down at the end of the campaign. The good news for Bayern is that they’re unbeaten at home in this season’s UCL and haven’t lost at the Allianz in the competition for 14 matches, dating back to April 2021. They’ve also beaten the Gunners in seven of their 13 Champions League encounters, winning 5-1 on Arsenal’s last visit to the Allianz in 2017.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Bayern Munich 2 Cologne 0 | 13.04.24 Bundesliga |
| Arsenal 2 Bayern Munich 2 | 09.04.24 Champions League |
| Heidenheim 3 Bayern Munich 2 | 06.04.24 Bundesliga |
| Bayern Munich 0 Borussia Dortmund 2 | 30.03.24 Bundesliga |
| Darmstadt 2 Bayern Munich 5 | 16.03.24 Bundesliga |
Kingsley Coman continues to struggle with an adductor injury and will be assessed ahead of kick-off, although he did make an appearance from the bench in the first leg at the Emirates. However, first-leg goalscorer and former Gunner Serge Gnabry has been ruled out with a torn muscle fibre, while right-backs Sacha Boey (hip) and Bouna Sarr (cruciate ligament tear) remain longer-term absentees. Young defender Tarek Buchmann is also out for the season with a torn muscle bundle, and full-back Alphonso Davies is suspended, having been booked in the first leg.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Kingsley Coman | Adductor injury |
| Serge Gnabry | Torn Muscle Fibre |
| Sacha Boey | Hip Injury |
| Tarek Buchmann | Muscle Injury |
| Alphonso Davies | Suspended |
| Bouna Sarr | ACL Injury |
2️⃣ Arsenal Update
Arsenal slumped to a desperately disappointing 2-0 home defeat to Aston Villa at the weekend, with this dealing a significant blow to their title challenge. However, the Gunners have still won 11 and lost just three of the 16 matches they’ve contested so far in 2024, while they’ve only lost one of their previous seven away matches in all competitions. Arsenal also boast one of this season’s best Champions League players in the form of Bukayo Saka, with the young English winger producing eight goal involvements (four goals and four assists) in eight appearances and 5.10 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Arsenal 0 Aston Villa 2 | 14.04.24 Premier League |
| Arsenal 2 Bayern Munich 2 | 09.04.24 UEFA Champions League |
| Brighton 0 Arsenal 3 | 06.04.24 Premier League |
| Arsenal 2 Luton Town 0 | 03.04.24 Premier League |
| Man City 0 Arsenal 0 | 31.03.24 Premier League |
Arsenal are almost at full strength ahead of their trip to Munich, although captain and playmaker Martin Ødegaard will be assessed after being withdrawn against Villa with a knock at the weekend. Otherwise, the Gunners’ only confirmed absentee is Dutch defender Jurrien Timber, who is continuing his recovery from a serious knee injury and is expected to return in May.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Jurrien Timber | ACL Injury |
| Martin Ødegaard | Knock |
👕 Bayern vs Arsenal - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Bayern 4-2-3-1 | Arsenal 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | M. Neuer | D. Raya | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | J. Kimmich | B. White | Right Back |
| Centre Back | M. de Ligt | W. Saliba | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | E. Dier | Gabriel | Centre Back |
| Left Back | R. Guerreiro | J. Kiwior | Left Back |
| Midfielder | K. Laimer | M. Ødegaard | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | L. Goretzka | Jorginho | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | T. Müller | D. Rice | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | L. Sane | B. Saka | Wide Forward |
| Striker | H. Kane | K. Havertz | Striker |
| Wide Forward | J. Musiala | G. Martinelli | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
