Premier League Outright Predictions & Odds 2025/2026: Which Team Will Lift the EPL Trophy?

The 2025/26 Premier League season is reaching a potentially thrilling conclusion, with leaders Arsenal and Manchester City engaged in a straight footrace for the title.

The Premier League title odds have tightened dramatically in recent weeks as City have slashed a nine-point deficit at the top of the table, defeating their rivals at the Etihad in the process. In this online betting guide, we’ll analyse the race more closely and offer our own Premier League outright winner prediction.

English Premier League Outright Winner Prediction

Prior to their home match against Bournemouth on April 11th, Arsenal were nine points clear at the top of the Premier League. The Gunners were defeated by the Cherries at the Emirates, however, before slumping to a tense 2-1 defeat at the hands of Manchester City the following weekend.

The Citizens also thumped Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge in-between these games, before a 1-0 victory over Burnley at Turf Moor moved them top of the table for the first time since the opening day of the campaign. This was a potentially seismic moment in the title race, especially given Arsenal’s recent failures to convert promising positions into silverware.

Their form has been historically poor in the month of April too. Manager Mikel Arteta has now taken charge of 27 EPL matches in April since his appointment in December 2019, amassing just 40 points at a rate of 1.48 per game. His overall PPG record in the Premier League is much higher at 1.98.

City are also led by a serial winner in Pep Guardiola, who has recently settled on a consistent starting 11 after several months of tinkering. His charges have built momentum at the perfect time, while they have superior firepower to Arsenal and a greater capacity to boost their goal difference during the run-in something reflected in the latest odds across top football betting sites.

So, although it will be an incredibly close finish, our Premier League outright winner prediction is that Man City will collect a seventh title in just nine years.

Premier League Outright Odds – Bookmarker Favorites

Arsenal and Manchester City are the only teams that remain in realistic contention to win the 2025/26 English Premier League. Although Manchester United retain a faint mathematical chance of lifting the title, they would require the Gunners to lose all of their remaining matches and also require a +24 goal difference swing.

The operators covered by our sportsbook reviews have stopped taking bets on Manchester United winning the title. Instead, they price both Arsenal and Manchester City at 1.90 to prevail, suggesting that each team has a 52.6% chance of winning.

Below, you can see the latest Premier League outright odds from the best betting sites in Ireland. These include Directionbet, Lunubet and Betovo Sports, where you can claim some of the top free bet offers available.

Odds to Win - 1.90

Arsenal returned to winning ways with a narrow 1-0 win over Newcastle, helping them to move three points clear at the top having played a game more than their rivals.

Once again, however, they struggled to create chances from open play, relying on an inventive corner routine for Eberechi Eze’s winner. Their xG from open play was just 0.47, continuing a trend that has blighted Arsenal in the second half of the season.

The Gunners must also play both legs of their UCL semi-final against Atletico Madrid in the next week, either side of a must win home match against Fulham. This could prove to be a difference maker, especially given the fine margins by which Arsenal often win games.

1.90 @Directionbet

1.90 @Lunubet

1.90 @Betovo

Odds to Win - 1.90

City only have the FA Cup to distract them from their title challenge, with their final against Chelsea scheduled for Saturday, May 16th. They’re also in much better form than the Gunners, having gone unbeaten in 11 Premier League matches and lost just three times in all competitions since January 24th.

The team has also gained a significant psychological edge over their rivals in recent weeks, defeating Arsenal in the Carabao Cup final before edging the recent league encounter at the Etihad Stadium.

City have scored two more goals than the Gunners this season, while star striker Erling Haaland has 24 EPL goals from an xG of just 21.2. This ruthlessness in front of goal and City’s greater attacking quality could prove decisive, in a title race that may eventually be settled by goal difference.

1.90 @Directionbet

1.90 @Lunubet

1.90 @Betovo

Key Fixtures Information

Arsenal have four games left to play in their 2025/26 campaign, one less than Manchester City. The Citizens also have two remaining fixtures that need to be scheduled: away at Bournemouth and at home against Crystal Palace. Below, we’ve summarised the key fixtures that are likely to have an impact on the English Premier League winner odds.

🏁 Review of the 2024/25 EPL season

If you were going to bet on the Premier League winner at the beginning of the season in the sports betting Ireland scene, Liverpool would have stood out as the clear favourites. Having swept to the title in 2024/25, they also invested a record £446 million during the summer while retaining the services of talisman Mohammed Salah.

Conversely, the odds on Arsenal to win the title were just 3.50. This price implied a 28.6% win probability, despite the Gunners also spending heavily to reinforce their attack. This was based largely on their inconsistent performances last season, as they failed to win 18 of their 38 EPL matches (47.3%).

Man City trailed third with just 71 points last season, as they began a transitional period that has seen a number of incomings and outgoings. Overall, manager Pep Guardiola has overseen a £600 million spend since January 2025, with new players like Abdukodir Khusanov, Tijjani Reijnders and Omar Marmoush taking some time to settle.

Still, Man City’s odds to win the title were 3.25 back in July, and they were afforded a 30.8% probability of achieving this goal. They’ve undoubtedly outperformed these odds, while defending champions Liverpool have struggled for consistency and to successfully integrate their new signings.