Wolves vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 19:30 GMT, 20th April 24 |
| Prediction | Back the Draw! |
| Odds | 5.00 |
| Bookmaker | 1Bet Sports |
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Arsenal’s old failings were laid bare once again against Aston Villa last weekend, with a 2-0 defeat at the Emirates evoking memories of their collapse in the 2022/23 campaign. Make no mistake; their Premier League title challenge now hangs by a thread, with defending champions Manchester City two points clear with just six matches to play. A trip to Wolves will also prove tricky for Mikel Arteta’s men, especially with Gary O’Neil welcoming back forwards Matheus Cunha and Hee-Chan Hwang into the fold. But will Wolves completely derail Arsenal’s title bid at Molineux or can the North London team rebound from their loss against the Villains?
🏆 Wolves vs Arsenal EPL Prediction
Arsenal were dominant in the reverse fixture at the Emirates on December 2nd, with early goals from Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard helping to secure a 2-1 win. The Gunners accumulated an impressive xG of 3.30 as they threatened to run away with the contest in the first half, while Matheus Cunha’s late consolation goal was Wolves’ sole reward for a collective xG of 1.08.
However, Wolves have surpassed expectations this season, having amassed 43 points from 32 matches. This success has been built on excellent defensive organisation and powerful ball carrying in the attacking third. O’Neil’s men have attempted 344 tackles in the defensive third this season (the second-highest such tally in the league), winning 52.30% of these. They’ve also completed 1,627 ball recoveries and attempted the most take-ons of all EPL sides aside from Bournemouth (711).
So, although the Gunners will dominate the ball at Molineux (they average 59.50% possession per 90 in the 2023/24 Premier League), they’ll most likely have to be patient and wary of Wolves’ direct running in transition. The good news for Arsenal is that they average 0.37 goals per shot on target, have outperformed their xG of 68.90 by +6.1 goals, and are among the most clinical teams in the league.
However, Wolves’ top scorers Matheus Cunha and Hee-Chan Hwang are back to fitness after extended absences, boosting the home team’s attacking strength considerably. The Gunners must also contend with a midweek trip to Munich in the Champions League before they head to the Midlands, so I’m tipping Wolves to claim a point and further undermine Arsenal’s title chances.
My Prediction: 🏆 Wolves 1 - 1 Arsenal ⚽
💯 Wolves vs Arsenal EPL Match Odds
Whichever sportsbook you select from Ireland’s best betting sites, you’ll be able to wager on a diverse selection of markets ahead of the clash between Wolves and Arsenal. In addition to the match winner, you can also bet on BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the game, but how are these markets being priced?
🏅 Wolves vs Arsenal: Match Winner
Wolves are priced as high as 8.00 to defeat Arsenal at Molineux, with these odds implying just a 12.50% probability of a home win. Conversely, the Gunners can be backed at around 1.33 to record a potentially pivotal away victory, suggesting that they have a 75.18% chance of achieving this objective. You can back the draw at 5.00, which implies a 20% chance of the game ending in a tie.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves to Win | 8.00 | 7.50 | 7.70 | 8.00 | 7.50 |
| Arsenal to Win | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.95 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
⚽ Wolves vs Arsenal: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in 11 of Wolves’ 15 EPL home matches this season (73%), with the Wanderers keeping three clean sheets at Molineux and failing to score only once (against Brentford on February 10th). Conversely, Arsenal’s 16 away matches have seen both sides find the net on just five occasions, with the Gunners keeping an impressive nine clean sheets and drawing two blanks on the road.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.87 | 1.91 | 1.85 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
| No | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.83 | 1.83 |
🥅 Wolves vs Arsenal: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Wolves’ 15 home matches in the Premier League have yielded 46 goals in total at a rate of 3.06 per game. O’Neil’s team have scored and conceded 23 goals in front of their own fans. The 16 matches Arsenal have contested on the road have produced 48 goals, at the slightly lower rate of 3.00 per 90 minutes. This has much to do with the Gunners’ defensive excellence away from home, as they’ve conceded just 11 goals at a rate of 0.68 per 90.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.25 | 2.30 | 2.22 | 2.20 | 2.25 |
✔️ Wolves vs Arsenal - Betting Tips
While some of these football betting markets offer inherent value, others will need to be navigated with a little more forethought and caution. Regardless, here are some expert betting tips to help you make the most of your bankroll!
- Tip 1: Back the Draw: While the odds imply just a 20% probability of this match ending in a draw, the win market fails to take into account just how competitive Wolves have been at home this season. Although they’ve lost two of their previous four EPL home matches, this run coincided with the absence of their first-choice front three through injury. However, both Matheus Cunha and Hee-Chan Hwang have now returned to fitness, while the pressure is on the Gunners after they dropped points against Villa last weekend. So, I think there’s value in backing the draw here, especially at the enhanced price of 5.00 with 1Bet Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Matheus Cunha as an Anytime Goalscorer: When utilising one or more of your available free bets, the anytime goalscorer market is always a viable option. In this instance, Matheus Cunha offers particular value, with the Brazilian having notched a brace on his comeback from injury against Nottingham Forest last time out. He has also scored 11 EPL goals this season from 63 attempts and an xG of 8.7, while he struck Wolves’ consolation in the reverse fixture in December. You can get on this market at the competitive price of 4.50 with LegendPlay.
- Tip 3: Back Both Teams to Score: The bookies appear split on whether both teams will score or not at Molineux. In fact, the current odds of 1.87 imply just a 53.47% probability of both sides finding the net here, as while Wolves have failed to score only once at home this season, the Gunners have kept nine clean sheets on the road. However, the timely return of Cunha and Hee-Chan Hwang will boost Wolves considerably, with these two having contributed 21 of the team’s 46 EPL goals in 2023/24 (46%). Arsenal also looked defensively vulnerable against Villa (especially in transition), so get on both teams to score here at a price of 1.91 with Royalist Play.
1️⃣ Wolves Update
Despite fielding a depleted attack in recent times, Wolves have still won four of their previous 10 EPL matches and taken 14 points from the 30 available to them during this period. However, the injuries have clearly affected Gary O’Neil’s men at Molineux, where they’ve lost three of their last five games and scored just seven goals since February 1st. Prior to this, the Wanderers went unbeaten in eight home league matches, beating Manchester City, Spurs and Chelsea during this run. Currently, they remain just seven points off the European places, so a win here would keep their slim hopes of securing a Europa Conference League place alive.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest 2 Wolves 2 | 13.04.24 Premier League |
| Wolves 1 West Ham 2 | 06.04.24 Premier League |
| Burnley 1 Wolves 1 | 02.04.24 Premier League |
| Aston Villa 2 Wolves 0 | 30.03.24 Premier League |
| Wolves 2 Coventry 3 | 16.03.24 FA Cup |
Although Matheus Cunha and Hee-Chan Hwang are fit again, veteran defender Craig Dawson is likely to miss out with a niggling groin injury. The match may also come too soon for Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (knee), while Nelson Semedo (thigh) and the in-form Ryan Ait-Nouri (calf) are expected to be absent too. The excellent Pedro Neto (hamstring) is a longer-term absentee and is not scheduled to return until mid-May.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Craig Dawson | Groin Injury |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | Knee Injury |
| Nelson Semedo | Thigh Injury |
| Ryan Ait-Nouri | Calf Injury |
| Pedro Neto | Hamstring Injury |
2️⃣ Arsenal Update
Arsenal’s shock 2-0 home defeat to Villa not only left the Gunners two points behind Manchester City at the top of the table, but it also ended their 11-match unbeaten streak in 2024. Even more worryingly for Mikel Arteta, Arsenal looked drained and off-the-pace in the second half, with their performance evoking memories of their declining form in last season’s Premier League run-in. The good news for the Gunners is that they remain top of the EPL form table over the course of the previous 10 matches, having accumulated 25 points from the 30 available to them during this period. This will stand them in good stead as they look to rebound immediately at Molineux.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Arsenal 0 Aston Villa 2 | 14.04.24 Premier League |
| Arsenal 2 Bayern Munich 2 | 09.04.24 UEFA Champions League |
| Brighton 0 Arsenal 3 | 06.04.24 Premier League |
| Arsenal 2 Luton Town 0 | 03.04.24 Premier League |
| Man City 0 Arsenal 0 | 31.03.24 Premier League |
Bukayo Saka and skipper Martin Odegaard reported minor knocks after the defeat against Villa, with the latter withdrawn in the second half. However, both will be assessed ahead of the midweek match in Munich and are at least expected to be fit in time for the trip to Wolverhampton. Otherwise, unfortunate Dutch defender Jurrien Timber remains Arsenal’s only confirmed absentee, as he continues his recovery from a serious knee injury.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Jurrien Timber | ACL Injury |
| Bukayo Saka | Knock |
| Martin Odegaard | Knock |
👕 Wolves vs Arsenal - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Wolves 3-4-3 | Arsenal 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | J. Sa | D. Raya | Goalkeeper |
| Right Centre Back | S. Bueno | B. White | Right Back |
| Centre Back | M. Kilman | W. Saliba | Centre Back |
| Left Centre Back | Toti Gomes | Gabriel | Centre Back |
| Right Wing Back | M. Doherty | P. Kiwior | Left Back |
| Central Midfielder | M. Lemina | M. Ødegaard | Midfielder |
| Central Midfielder | J. Gomes | D. Rice | Midfielder |
| Left Wing Back | H. Bueno | K. Havertz | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | P. Sarabia | B. Saka | Wide Forward |
| Striker | Hwang Hee-chan | G. Jesus | Striker |
| Wide Forward | M. Cunha | G. Martinelli | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
