Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Newcastle vs Arsenal

Newcastle and Arsenal have contested a staggering 191 games since their first contest on September 2nd, 1893, with the home side winning 68 matches and the Gunners prevailing on 84 occasions (the remaining 39 encounters have ended in draws). More recently, Newcastle have just one win in their previous 11 games against Arsenal in all competitions, since a 2-1 victory at St James Park in April 2018.

Arguably, Newcastle have been more impressive offensively than Arsenal this season, with a non-penalty expected goals value of 19.5 in 2023/24 (compared to just 14.1 for the Gunners). However, Arsenal have averaged much more possession overall (60.7% compared to 54.3%), while winning a league high 58.6% of their tackles. Mikel Arteta’s men have also won 31 tackles in the attacking third, highlighting their ability to dominate and recover the ball high up the pitch both home and away.

This will stand them in good stead against a typically aggressive Newcastle side, while the immense physicality of Declain Rice in the midfield should also help Arsenal to counter the strengths of Eddie Howe’s team. The Geordies are struggling with a hectic schedule and increasingly stretched playing squad too, so I’m tipping Arsenal to nick a narrow win at St. James Park!

💯 Newcastle vs Arsenal Match Odds

Our recommended EPL betting sites have already published a raft of Newcastle vs Arsenal odds, pertaining to outcomes such as the match result, whether or not both sides will score and the over/under for total goals scored in the game. These remain the most popular betting markets among punters, but what do the ante post prices tell us?

🏅 Newcastle vs Arsenal: Match Winner

Arsenal are the narrow favourites to win in the Northeast, with an average price of 2.45 implying a 40.81% probability that they’ll beat Eddie Howe’s team. However, Newcastle are priced at around 2.75 to prevail here, so the implied probability of this outcome remains relatively competitive at 36.36%.

Team
Newcastle to Win	2.85	2.75	2.67	2.80	2.70
Arsenal to Win	2.45	2.40	2.43	2.50	2.45
Draw	3.50	3.40	3.30	3.50	3.40

Newcastle vs Arsenal: Both Teams To Score

Newcastle have kept four clean sheets in their previous six Premier League games, although the Magpies’ opponents have scored in eight of 14 matches across all competitions this season. For their part, the Gunners have stopped their opponents from scoring in five of their 10 EPL matches through 2023/24, including three of four encounters on the road. However, the bookies clearly expect both sides to score at St. James Park.

Yes/No
Yes	1.62	1.67	1.59	1.67	1.65
No	2.15	2.20	2.16	2.15	2.15

🥅 Newcastle vs Arsenal: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Both Newcastle and Arsenal remain competitive in the UEFA Champions League and EFL Cup, so these sides have contested 29 matches between them this season. These encounters have also yielded 88 goals at a rate of 3.03 per game, so the smart money is arguably on there being over 2.5 goals scored in this EPL clash!

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.80	1.78	1.76	1.80	1.83
Under 2.5 Goals	1.91	1.95	1.92	1.95	1.91

1️⃣ Newcastle Update

Despite being joint-top EPL scorers and incredibly efficient in front of goal (a league high 42.3% of their total goal attempts have hit the target), the Magpies have only won five of their 10 league games so far and just seven out of 14 in all competitions. They also tired significantly in the second half of their last league outing at Wolves, as they contend on three fronts and continue to have their already thin squad stretched by injuries. However, striker Callum Wilson is averaging a goal every 66 minutes so far in 2023/24, while the Geordies are unbeaten in six Premier League games since September 2nd.

Newcastle are facing a mounting injury crisis ahead of the visit of Arsenal, with striker Alexander Isak (groin injury), winger Jacob Murphy (shoulder) and midfielder Elliott Anderson (back) all likely to be unavailable. Winger Harvey Barnes is also missing with a long-term foot injury, while influential centre back Sven Botman remains sidelined with a knee complaint. Midfielder Sandro Tonali has also begun a 10-month suspension from all competitions after being found guilty of betting rule breaches.

2️⃣ Arsenal Update

In addition to being undefeated in this season’s Premier League, Arsenal have only lost once in 15 matches across all competitions, while they’ve won 10 games in total and kept seven clean sheets. In seven away matches through 2023/24, they’ve also kept four clean sheets and only conceded five goals in total, and there’s no doubt that Declan Rice (who has 37 combined interceptions and tackles so far this season in the EPL) has made the Gunners more solid and defensively robust.

While winger Bukayo Saka continues to struggle with a thigh niggle, he is expected to be fit for the trip to Newcastle. Otherwise, Dutch defender Jurrien Timber remains the only confirmed and long-term absentee for the Gunners, as he continues his recovery from a cruciate ligament tear.

👕 Newcastle vs Arsenal - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.