Manchester City vs Luton Town Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 15:00 GMT, 13th April 24 |
| Prediction | Man City to Win! |
| Odds | 1.10 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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Opta analysis reinstated Man City as title favourites after last weekend, with Pep Guardiola’s side now having a 40.6% chance of lifting a fourth successive Premier League crown. However, the Citizens continue to struggle defensively, conceding twice in a 4-2 win at Palace last time out and shipping three goals against Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in midweek. Crucially, Luton snapped a 10-match winless run with a 2-1 victory over Bournemouth in gameweek 32, and will be typically combative and compact at the Etihad Stadium. But who do I think will win here, and what odds are on offer from Ireland’s best betting sites?
🏆 Manchester City vs Luton Town EPL Prediction
Although City won the reverse fixture 2-1 at Kenilworth Road on December 10th, they had to come from behind against a tenacious Luton side. However, the Citizens did dominate possession and accumulate an xG of 2.23, while the Hatters could only muster two shots on target and a collective xG of 0.69.
Overall, City have produced an xG of 63.9 in 2023/24, outperforming this by +7.1 goals and showcasing impressive efficiency in the attacking third. The Citizens also average 65.6% per 90 minutes and bossed 66% of the ball in the victory at Kenilworth Road, so Luton will have to feed off scraps at the Etihad and make the most of their opportunities in transition.
To this end, I expect Luton to adopt a direct approach, with the Hatters having attempted 2,465 long passes this season (only Everton have attempted more). Luton have also completed an impressive 298 take-ons so far during the 2023/24 campaign, so they’ll be full of running as they look to exploit the space behind City’s defence.
However, the Hatters could be without as many as 11 first-team players for the trip to City, while Guardiola’s side have the bit between their teeth as they pursue a record-breaking fourth successive EPL title. It’s certainly hard to see past a City win here, even if Guardiola rotates his squad ahead of the UCL quarterfinal second leg in Manchester.
My Prediction: 🏆 Manchester City 3 – 0 Luton Town ⚽
💯 Manchester City vs Luton Town EPL Match Odds
The win market here is heavily in favour of Man City, but the good news is that you can also wager on both teams to score and the over/under on the total number of goals scored during the 90 minutes. So, here’s my analysis of these markets and how they’re currently being priced by the leading football betting sites.
🏅 Manchester City vs Luton Town: Match Winner
City are certainly the overwhelming favourites to defeat Luton at the Etihad, with their average price of 1.09 implying a 91.74% probability of a home win. Conversely, you back Luton to prevail at prohibitive odds of around 23.00, suggesting that Rob Edward’s team have just a 4.34% chance of success.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City to Win | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.07 | 1.09 | 1.10 |
| Luton to Win | 26.00 | 21.00 | 25.50 | 23.00 | 19.00 |
| Draw | 8.00 | 10.00 | 11.30 | 10.00 | 11.00 |
⚽ Manchester City vs Luton Town: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in 65% of Man City’s home matches this season and 63% of their EPL encounters at the Etihad. Guardiola’s team have kept six clean sheets at home and drawn just a single blank, in a 0-0 draw with Arsenal on March 31st. Both sides have found the net in 75% of Luton’s away games, with the Hatters failing to score on four occasions and yet to keep a single clean sheet on the road.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 2.00 |
| No | 1.67 | 1.70 | 1.66 | 1.70 | 1.73 |
🥅 Manchester City vs Luton Town: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
City have contested a total of 16 EPL home games this season, with these producing 51 goals at a rate of 3.18 per 90 minutes. They’ve scored 38 of these goals at a rate of 2.37 per game. Luton have also played 16 league matches on the road, with these encounters yielding 59 goals at a rate of 3.68 per 90. However, they’ve conceded 38 times away from home at a rate of 2.37 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.22 | 1.29 | 1.24 | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 3.75 | 3.60 | 3.65 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
✔️ Manchester City vs Luton Town - Betting Tips
Man City have scored eight goals in their last two EPL wins against Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, while their largely imperious home form is likely to inform your individual selections ahead of this EPL clash. But which betting markets offer the most value here?
- Tip 1: Back Man City to Win with a Handicap of -2.5 Goals : The odds imply a 91.74% chance of City beating Luton, but such pricing is also prohibitive and offers little inherent value. However, you can create greater value through handicap betting, especially given that eight of the Citizens’ 11 EPL home wins in 2023/24 are achieved by a margin of two goals or more. Remember, Luton have also shipped 38 goals on the road this season at a rate of 2.37 per 90, so consider backing City to win with a handicap of -2.5 goals at the enhanced price of 1.83 with Royalistplay-sports.
- Tip 2: Back Julian Alvarez as an Anytime Goalscorer: There’s a good chance that City will rotate their starting 11 ahead of their return match against Madrid next week, with Erling Haaland particularly likely to be rested after his intense physical battle with Antonio Rüdiger at the Bernabeu. This should see Julian Alvarez lead the front line against Luton, with the Argentinian having already contributed eight EPL goals this season from an xG of 10.7. He’s also a set piece specialist and averages 0.30 goals per 90 minutes in the league, so consider backing him as an anytime scorer at the competitive price of 2.20 with LegendPlay.
- Tip 3: Back Man City to Win with Under 3.5 Goals: The pre-game odds imply a 58.82% probability of over 3.5 goals being scored in this match, but this pricing doesn’t reflect the likelihood of City rotating players ahead of the visit of Real Madrid next week. It should also be noted that Luton is considerably understrength and without top scorer Elijah Adebayo (who struck in the reverse fixture), so their own goal threat will be significantly diminished. Because of this, you should consider backing City to win with under 3.5 goals scored at a price of 2.63 with PalmSlots Sports, especially if you have one or more free bets available.
1️⃣ Man City Update
Man City are now unbeaten in 16 Premier League matches since a 1-0 reversal at Aston Villa on December 16th, while they haven’t lost in an incredible 26 games in all competitions during this period. Over the course of their previous 10 EPL matches, City have taken 24 points from the 30 available to them, with Arsenal (28) accumulating more during this period. However, the Citizens remain vulnerable defensively, having only kept one clean sheet in their last five EPL games since February 24th and struggled in the absence of first-choice goalkeeper Ederson. This vulnerability will be something that Luton will be keen to capitalise on, even if the Brazilian returns between the posts.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid 3 Man City 3 | 09.04.24 UEFA Champions League |
| Crystal Palace 2 Man City 4 | 06.04.24 Premier League |
| Man City 4 Aston Villa 1 | 03.04.24 Premier League |
| Man City 0 Arsenal 0 | 31.03.24 Premier League |
| Man City 2 Newcastle 0 | 16.03.24 FA Cup |
Phil Foden was withdrawn late on in Madrid with a dead leg, but the precocious Englishman is expected to be fit in time for the visit of Luton. Ederson is also expected to be fit after recovering from a thigh injury. However, both Kyle Walker (hamstring) and Nathan Ake (calf) remain unavailable and aren’t expected to return until the following weekend, although they’ll be assessed ahead of the UCL quarterfinal second leg against Real Madrid.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Kyle Walker | Thigh Injury |
| Nathan Ake | Calf Injury |
| Phil Foden | Dead Leg |
2️⃣ Luton Town Update
Luton finally snapped a 10-game winless run with a hard-earned 2-1 victory over Bournemouth last time out, with this leaving the Hatters level on points with fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest and only in the relegation zone on goal difference. However, Luton remain in the midst of an injury crisis that has directly impacted their form and playing style, with as many as 11 players expected to be unavailable for the trip to Manchester. The Hatters are also at the bottom of the EPL form table over the course of the last 10 matches, having taken just five points from the 30 available to them during this time and conceded 23 goals.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Luton 2 Bournemouth 1 | 06.04.24 Premier League |
| Arsenal 2 Luton 0 | 03.04.24 Premier League |
| Tottenham 2 Luton 1 | 30.03.24 Premier League |
| Luton 1 Nottm Forest 1 | 16.03.24 Premier League |
| Bournemouth 4 Luton 3 | 13.03.24 Premier League |
None of Luton’s current absentees are expected to return against City, including Gabriel Osho (knee injury), Albert Sambi Lokonga (hamstring) and Mads Anderson (calf). Neither Chiedozie Ogbene (thigh) nor top scorer Elijah Adebayo (hamstring) will return until May, while on-loan wing back Issa Kabore cannot face his parent club at the Etihad. The Hatters are also without five players who have been ruled out for the season, namely Dan Potts (thigh), Jacob Brown (knee surgery), Amari'i Bell (hamstring), Marvelous Nakamba (knee) and Thomas Lockyer (chest).
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Issa Kabore | Ineligible |
| Jacob Brown | Knee Surgery |
| Gabriel Osho | Knee Injury |
| Chiedozie Ogbene | Thigh Injury |
| Mads Anderson | Calf Injury |
| Dan Potts | Thigh Injury |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga | Hamstring Injury |
| Elijah Adebayo | Hamstring Injury |
| Marvelous Nakamba | Knee Injury |
| Amari'i Bell | Hamstring Injury |
| Thomas Lockyer | Chest Injury |
👕 Man City vs Luton Town - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Man City 3-2-4-1 | Aston Villa 3-4-2-1 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | Ederson | T. Kaminski | Goalkeeper |
| Right Centre Back | M. Akanji | D. Hashioka | Right Centre Back |
| Centre Back | R. Dias | T. Mengi | Centre Back |
| Left Centre Back | J. Gvardiol | R. Burke | Left Centre Back |
| Defensive Midfielder | R. Lewis | F. Onyedinma | Right Wing Back |
| Defensive Midfielder | Rodri | R. Barkley | Central Midfielder |
| Right Midfielder | O. Bobb | J. Clark | Central Midfielder |
| Attacking Midfielder | M. Kovacic | A. Doughty | Left Wing Back |
| Attacking Midfielder | B. Silva | A. Townsend | Attacking Midfielder |
| Left Midfielder | J. Doku | T. Chong | Attacking Midfielder |
| Striker | J. Alvarez | C. Morris | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
