Manchester City vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Manchester City vs Aston Villa EPL Prediction

Villa’s 1-0 win back in December was well deserved, with Leon Bailey’s superb second-half strike coming from an xG of just 0.09. Unai Emery’s men were certainly dominant at Villa Park, while their collective xG of 1.46 suggested that the home side should have won by a wider margin. As for City, they produced an xG of just 0.39 during the 90 minutes and struggled to create throughout.

Since this match, Man City have gone 14 Premier League games without defeat, while they haven’t lost in 23 outings in all competitions. As for Villa, their form has stuttered slightly since their win over City, with eight wins, three draws and four defeats from 15 EPL matches home and away. Emery’s charges have taken 27 points from the 45 available to them since December 6th.

One of City’s biggest concerns will be their form in front of goal. The Citizens have only scored seven in their previous six Premier League matches, while Arsenal became the first team to top them registering at the Etihad Stadium in 47 games on Sunday. Erling Haaland has also struggled for form of late and managed just two goals in six starts since February 10th, while he is now underperforming his xG of 21.2 by -3.2 goals in 2023/24.

The good news for City is that Villa have only kept three clean sheets on the road this season, with their high defensive line making them vulnerable to rapid counter-attacks and the pace of players kike Haaland and Jeremy Doku. Guardiola may also look to release the handbrake a little after the stalemate against Arsenal, making it hard for Villa to impose themselves in Manchester.

💯 Manchester City vs Aston Villa EPL Match Odds

There are plenty of football betting markets associated with the EPL match between Man City and Arsenal, including popular options like the match winner, both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored during the 90 minutes. But how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Manchester City vs Aston Villa: Match Winner

Not only are City undefeated in 23 matches in all competitions, but it’s now 26 games and nearly 17 months since they were beaten at home in the Premier League. Because of this, you can back City to beat Villa at an average price of 1.29, which implies a 77.51% probability of a home win. As for Villa, they can be back at around 9.00 to defeat City, suggesting there’s only an 11.11% chance of Emery’s men achieving this objective.

Team
Man City to Win	1.25	1.25	1.28	1.29	1.30
Aston Villa to Win	9.00	11.00	8.55	9.00	10.00
Draw	5.00	6.75	6.00	6.00	6.00

⚽ Manchester City vs Aston Villa: Both Teams To Score

Man City have only passed three out of 29 games this season without scoring when against Arsenal twice and Aston Villa. Villa have managed to score in 26 games out of a current total of 30, with Emery’s side keeping clean sheets against Liverpool, Nottm Forest, Everton, and Spurs.

Yes/No
Yes	1.70	1.79	1.69	1.73	1.73
No	2.00	1.94	2.09	2.05	2.00

🥅 Manchester City vs Aston Villa: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Man City have now played 15 home matches in the 2023/24 Premier League, which have yielded 46 goals in total at a rate of 3.06 per game. City have scored 34 of these goals at a rate of 2.26 per 90 minutes. Villa’s 15 matches on the road have produced 48 goals at a rate of 3.20 per game, although they’ve conceded 23 of these goals at the heightened rate of 1.53 per 90.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.36	1.41	1.36	1.36	1.40
Under 2.5 Goals	2.80	3.02	2.89	2.75	2.75

1️⃣ Man City Update

While City’s 0-0 draw with Arsenal means that they’ve now gone 26 EPL home games without defeat since a 2-1 loss to Brentford on November 12th, 2022, they’ve also dropped points in three of their previous six Premier League matches. They’ve also dropped twice as many points at home this season in just 15 matches (10) than they did in the whole of the 2022/23 campaign (five), with Liverpool, Spurs, Crystal Palace, Chelsea and the Gunners all escaping the Etihad without defeat so far. Not only have City scored just seven goals in their previous six league home matches, but talisman Erling Haaland has just four in nine appearances at the Etihad since November 25th.

The versatile and influential John Stones was fit enough to start on the bench against Arsenal and may be involved from the start against Aston Villa. However, full-back Kyle Walker remains a doubt after reporting tightness in his thigh and missing the clash with the Gunners, and Guardiola may not risk him against the Villains. Goalkeeper Ederson continues to be assessed and may be passed fit to start in midweek, as he continues his recovery from a hamstring injury.

2️⃣ Aston Villa Update

As I’ve already touched on, Villa have taken 27 points from the 45 available to them since defeating City on December 6th, including 17 from their previous 10 matches. Even more intriguingly, Villa have been more productive on the road of late, winning four of their previous six away matches and going undefeated since December 26th. They’ve lost three times at home since their last loss on the road, so may welcome the trip to Manchester and the space that City leave behind their defensive line. However, John McGinn remains a huge loss to the Villains’ midfield, as the Scot serves the final game of a three-match ban.

In addition to the absence of McGinn, 16-goal top scorer Ollie Watkins remains a significant doubt with a hamstring injury incurred during the 2-0 win against Wolves. He will be continually monitored this week alongside Jacob Ramsey (ankle injury), although it’s touch and go whether either will start against City. Matty Cash (thigh) also remains sidelined, while Tyrone Mings, Emiliano Buendia and Boubacar Kamara (all ACL injuries) have already been ruled out for the rest of the 2023/24 season.

👕 Man City vs Aston Villa - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.