Aston Villa vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Aston Villa vs Manchester City EPL Prediction

The Villains haven’t beaten Manchester City in 15 meetings in all competitions, since a 3-2 Premier League win at Villa Park on September 28th, 2013. However, Unai Emery’s men will arguably never have a better chance of ending this run, as they seek a 14th successive home win in the EPL (since a dramatic 4-2 defeat to Arsenal on February 18th).

As for City, they’ve gone three games without a Premier League win for the first time since the spring of 2017 (during Guardiola’s first season at the Etihad). They’ve also shipped eight goals in these Premier League games, while they’ll come up against a potent Villa team who have scored 33 goals from a xG value of 25.9.

Strangely, however, City are suffering more as a result of their profligacy on front of goal. Despite producing 30.86 shot-creating actions per 90 and averaging 61.7% possession so far this season, for example, they’ve also missed 24 big chances while star striker Erling Haaland has wasted 15 alone (including several in the 3-3 draw against Spurs).

However, City will be determined to get back to winning ways, while the side may also be boosted by the return of John Stones (who’s so crucial to the team’s tactical set up). Villa are quite open defensively too and have shipped 20 goals in 14 EPL games, so I’m tipping Guardiola’s side to edge a high quality encounter.

💯 Aston Villa vs Manchester City EPL Match Odds

All of the sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews are offering a huge selection of Aston Villa vs Manchester City betting markets. Below, I’ve analysed three of the most popular, while appraising the very latest odds!

🏅 Aston Villa vs Manchester City: Match Winner

The form book suggests that this is a relatively evenly matched contest, although City’s average price of 1.70 implies a 58.82% of an away win. Villa can be backed at around 4.33 and have a 23.09% chance of beating the defending champions, so matched betting may be a viable strategy to deploy here.

Team
Aston Villa to Win	4.33	4.33	4.35	4.50	4.40
Man City to Win	1.67	1.73	1.68	1.70	1.70
Draw	4.00	4.00	4.15	4.30	4.20

⚽ Aston Villa v Manchester City: Both Teams To Score

You can also access a price of around 1.50 on both teams to score at Villa Park, which implies a 66.66% probability of this outcome occurring. This reflects the fact that both sides have found the net in 15 of City’s 22 matches in all competitions this season, with Guardiola’s side only drawing two blanks at Arsenal and Newcastle. Both teams have also scored in 15 of Villa’s 22 games, while Emery’s men have also failed to find the net just twice (at Liverpool and Aston Villa).

Yes/No
Yes	1.50	1.55	1.47	1.50	1.50
No	2.50	2.50	2.56	2.50	2.50

🥅 Aston Villa v Manchester City: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The odds also imply a significantly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the game. There’s good reason for this too, as the 44 matches contested by Aston Villa and Manchester City in 2023/24 have produced a combined total of 158 goals at a rate of 3.59 per game. The teams have both averaged 2.40 goals scored per 90 so far this season, so there’s no denying the quality of the attacking players on show.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.44	1.50	1.47	1.44	1.50
Under 2.5 Goals	2.50	2.50	2.51	2.63	2.50

1️⃣ Aston Villa Update

The last time Aston Villa won 13 consecutive top-flight games was in 1983, while they can extend this incredible record further with a victory over Man City. The Villains are also the EPL’s top scorers at home this season, with 23 goals in just six outings at a rate of 3.83 per game. Emery fast-improving charges are also second in the Premier League form table over the previous 10 matches, winning seven of these games (while losing just once) and taking 23 points from the 30 available to them. Interestingly, they’ve earned five more points that Man City during this period, while even matching the Citizens output in front of goal.

Villa will welcome back tenacious midfielder Boubacar Kamara from suspension against City, with Emery’s men missing the balance and defensive cover that he provides in the match with Bournemouth. Otherwise, Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendía remain unavailable with cruciate ligament tears, with the former out for the season and the latter expected to return in February.

2️⃣ Manchester City Update

City have now drawn three successive Premier League games and endured their longest winless run in the top flight for more than six years, although they haven’t actually tasted defeat for six EPL games. Overall, they’ve won five of their last 10 matches and accrued 18 points from the 30 available to them during this period, while also slipping to third in the table and three points behind league leaders Arsenal. Prolific striker Erling Haaland has also seen his xG value grow to exceed his actual goals tally in the last three matches, and the Norwegian’s return to top form could prove crucial for the Citizens.

City will be weakened considerably against Villa, with both Rodri and Jack Grealish serving one-match suspensions after collecting yellow cards in the see-saw draw with Spurs. Kevin De Bruyne also remains absent with a partial muscle tear, while reserve goalkeeper Zack Steffen continues his recovery from knee surgery. However, City could be buoyed considerably by the potential return of John Stones from injury.

👕 Aston Villa v Manchester City - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.