Aston Villa vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

aston-villa-v-man-city aston-villa-v-man-city
TournamentPremier League
Timetable20:15 GMT, 6th Dec 23
PredictionMan City to Win!
Man City to Win!
The best odds
Odds : 1.73
Bet €100 and win €173 if Man City win.
€50+ 50 Free Spins
Tony​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.70
Bet €100 and win €170 if Man City win.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.70
Bet €100 and win €170 if Man City win.
aston-villa-v-man-city aston-villa-v-man-city

Both Aston Villa and Manchester City were involved in breathless games at the weekend, with the Villains escaping Bournemouth with a point following Ollie Watkins late goal. City endured late drama of their own at the Etihad, thanks to Dejan Kulusevski’s 90th minute equalizer for Spurs and the referee’s bizarre decision to deny Pep Guardiola’s side an advantage as Jack Grealish hared through on goal. This will be another tough Premier League game for the Citizens, who will do battle with a Villa side that has won 13 consecutive games at home. But which team do I think will win at Villa Park, and what do the best betting sites say?

🏆 Aston Villa vs Manchester City EPL Prediction

The Villains haven’t beaten Manchester City in 15 meetings in all competitions, since a 3-2 Premier League win at Villa Park on September 28th, 2013. However, Unai Emery’s men will arguably never have a better chance of ending this run, as they seek a 14th successive home win in the EPL (since a dramatic 4-2 defeat to Arsenal on February 18th).

As for City, they’ve gone three games without a Premier League win for the first time since the spring of 2017 (during Guardiola’s first season at the Etihad). They’ve also shipped eight goals in these Premier League games, while they’ll come up against a potent Villa team who have scored 33 goals from a xG value of 25.9.

Strangely, however, City are suffering more as a result of their profligacy on front of goal. Despite producing 30.86 shot-creating actions per 90 and averaging 61.7% possession so far this season, for example, they’ve also missed 24 big chances while star striker Erling Haaland has wasted 15 alone (including several in the 3-3 draw against Spurs).

However, City will be determined to get back to winning ways, while the side may also be boosted by the return of John Stones (who’s so crucial to the team’s tactical set up). Villa are quite open defensively too and have shipped 20 goals in 14 EPL games, so I’m tipping Guardiola’s side to edge a high quality encounter.

My Prediction: 🏆 Aston Villa 1 – 2 Man City ⚽

💯 Aston Villa vs Manchester City EPL Match Odds

All of the sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews are offering a huge selection of Aston Villa vs Manchester City betting markets. Below, I’ve analysed three of the most popular, while appraising the very latest odds!

🏅 Aston Villa vs Manchester City: Match Winner

The form book suggests that this is a relatively evenly matched contest, although City’s average price of 1.70 implies a 58.82% of an away win. Villa can be backed at around 4.33 and have a 23.09% chance of beating the defending champions, so matched betting may be a viable strategy to deploy here.

Aston Villa to Win4.334.334.354.504.40
Man City to Win1.671.731.681.701.70

⚽ Aston Villa v Manchester City: Both Teams To Score

You can also access a price of around 1.50 on both teams to score at Villa Park, which implies a 66.66% probability of this outcome occurring. This reflects the fact that both sides have found the net in 15 of City’s 22 matches in all competitions this season, with Guardiola’s side only drawing two blanks at Arsenal and Newcastle. Both teams have also scored in 15 of Villa’s 22 games, while Emery’s men have also failed to find the net just twice (at Liverpool and Aston Villa).


🥅 Aston Villa v Manchester City: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The odds also imply a significantly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the game. There’s good reason for this too, as the 44 matches contested by Aston Villa and Manchester City in 2023/24 have produced a combined total of 158 goals at a rate of 3.59 per game. The teams have both averaged 2.40 goals scored per 90 so far this season, so there’s no denying the quality of the attacking players on show.

Over 2.5 Goals1.441.501.471.441.50
Under 2.5 Goals2.502.502.512.632.50

✔️ Aston Villa v Manchester City - Betting Tips

You can get relatively short prices on a number of outcomes in the clash between Villa and Man City, including the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on the total number of goals scored. But how can you successfully navigate these markets and create value when wagering on them? Here are some betting tips to keep in mind!

  • Tip 3: Back Man City to Win and Both Sides to Score: Combination betting is an excellent way to create additional value when engaging in match wagering. For example, you could consider backing Man City to win and both sides to score at an enhanced price of 2.90 with Betway, with this reflecting City’s undeniable quality and the attacking threat posed by the competing teams. Remember, Villa and City have both scored in 90.90% of their games so far this season, while also conceding more than 1.00 goals per game.
  • Tip 3: Back Ollie Watkins as an Anytime Goalscorer: Aston Villa hitman Ollie Watkins has already struck eight Premier League goals this season, from 41 attempts and an xG value of 7.9. These stats betray his increased efficiency in front of goal, while Watkins also scored in the 3-1 defeat at the Etihad on February 12th. He has two career goals to his name against City in six appearances too, so there’s value in backing Watkins as an anytime scorer at price of 3.00 with Dachbet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Both Teams to Score in the Second Half: If you have one or more free bets on your account, you may want to consider backing both teams to score in the second half. You can get on this at a price of 2.75 with LegendPlay Sports, with Villa having scored 19 of their 33 Premier League goals in the second 45 minutes of games. While City’s goals for are more evenly spread out, they’ve conceded four more times in the second half (10) than they have in the opening 45 (six).

1️⃣ Aston Villa Update

The last time Aston Villa won 13 consecutive top-flight games was in 1983, while they can extend this incredible record further with a victory over Man City. The Villains are also the EPL’s top scorers at home this season, with 23 goals in just six outings at a rate of 3.83 per game. Emery fast-improving charges are also second in the Premier League form table over the previous 10 matches, winning seven of these games (while losing just once) and taking 23 points from the 30 available to them. Interestingly, they’ve earned five more points that Man City during this period, while even matching the Citizens output in front of goal.

Last 5 Games
Bournemouth 2
Aston Villa 2
Premier League
Aston Villa 2
Legia Warsaw 1
Europa Conference League
Tottenham 1
Aston Villa 2
Premier League
Aston Villa 3
Fulham 1
Premier League
Aston Villa 2
AZ Alkmaar 1
Europa Conference League

Villa will welcome back tenacious midfielder Boubacar Kamara from suspension against City, with Emery’s men missing the balance and defensive cover that he provides in the match with Bournemouth. Otherwise, Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendía remain unavailable with cruciate ligament tears, with the former out for the season and the latter expected to return in February.

Tyrone Mings Cruciate Ligament Tear
Emiliano Buendía Cruciate Ligament Tear

2️⃣ Manchester City Update

City have now drawn three successive Premier League games and endured their longest winless run in the top flight for more than six years, although they haven’t actually tasted defeat for six EPL games. Overall, they’ve won five of their last 10 matches and accrued 18 points from the 30 available to them during this period, while also slipping to third in the table and three points behind league leaders Arsenal. Prolific striker Erling Haaland has also seen his xG value grow to exceed his actual goals tally in the last three matches, and the Norwegian’s return to top form could prove crucial for the Citizens.

Last 5 Games
Man City 3
Tottenham 3
Premier League
Man City 3
RB Leipzig 2
Champions League
Man City 1
Liverpool 1
Premier League
Chelsea 4
Man City 4
Premier League
Man City 3
Young Boys 0
Champions League

City will be weakened considerably against Villa, with both Rodri and Jack Grealish serving one-match suspensions after collecting yellow cards in the see-saw draw with Spurs. Kevin De Bruyne also remains absent with a partial muscle tear, while reserve goalkeeper Zack Steffen continues his recovery from knee surgery. However, City could be buoyed considerably by the potential return of John Stones from injury.

Kevin De Bruyne Partial Muscle Tear
Zack Steffen Knee Surgery
Jack Grealish Suspended
Rodri Suspended

👕 Aston Villa v Manchester City - Potential Lineups

Pos. Aston Villa
Man City
Goalkeeper E. Martinez Ederson Goalkeeper
Right Back E. Konsa K. Walker Right Centre Back
Centre Back P. Torres R. Dias Centre Back
Centre Back D. Carlos N. Ake Left Centre Back
Left Back L. Digne J. Stones Central Midfielder
Right Midfielder J. Ramsey R. Lewis Central Midfielder
Midfielder B. Kamara P. Foden Right Midfielder
Midfielder D. Luiz B. Silva Attacking Midfielder
Left Midfielder J. McGinn J. Alvarez Attacking Midfielder
Striker M. Diaby J. Doku Left Midfielder
Striker O. Watkins E. Haaland Striker

Man City to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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