Everton vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 20:00 GMT, 24th April 24 |
| Prediction | Liverpool to win! |
| Odds | 1.45 |
| Bookmaker | Royalistplay Sports |
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Liverpool got back to winning ways with a comfortable 3-1 win at Fulham over the weekend, ensuring that they remain firmly in the Premier League title race. However, a trip to Goodison Park is always arduous for the Reds, as they’ve won just twice at the home of their rivals in their previous 11 visits since October 2011. The Toffees are also fighting for their lives at the bottom of their table and have won their last two matches at Goodison, and will look to deny Jurgen Klopp’s men space from the outset. But will see a winner here, or will this fixture produce a draw for the fifth time in six outings?
🏆 Everton vs Liverpool EPL Prediction
The Reds were typically dominant in the reverse fixture at Anfield, where Everton haven’t won since September 1999. In fact, they boasted 78% possession and struck 26 attempts on goal, while accumulating an xG of 2.29. The Toffees registered just one shot on target during the 90 minutes and produced a collective xG of just 0.09.
However, the Reds still needed two late goals to defeat Sean Dyche’s men. What’s more, Everton are a different proposition at Goodison Park, where they’ve managed to keep six clean sheets during the 2023/24 campaign. The Toffees are certainly defensively well-organised, as they’ve won an impressive 378 tackles this season and conceded just 48 times both home and away.
Everton use this relative solidity as a base from which to counterattack, which is a tactic they’ll look to deploy extensively against Liverpool. The Toffees have produced 27 defensive actions leading to an attempt on goal this season (a league high), while they’ve averaged just 40.50% possession per 90 minutes.
Conversely, Liverpool have averaged 61.00% possession per 90 in 2023/24, so will welcome the opportunity to dominate the ball at Goodison Park. This may also help them to quieten the home crowd and take control of the game from the start, particularly with Alexis Mac Allister set to return to the starting 11 after being rested at the weekend. So, although this fixture often ends in a draw, I’m tipping the Reds to grind out a potentially crucial win in their pursuit of the title.
My Prediction: 🏆 Everton 0 – 2 Liverpool ⚽
💯 Everton vs Liverpool EPL Match Odds
Some betting markets may be more appealing than others when wagering on Everton vs Liverpool, particularly both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. So, let’s take a closer look at how the most popular markets are being priced ahead of the Merseyside derby.
🏅 Everton vs Liverpool: Match Winner
According to Ireland’s best betting sites, the Reds are the heavy favourites to prevail at Goodison Park. In fact, you can get on Liverpool to win at around 1.44, implying a 69.44% probability of this outcome occurring. As for the Toffees, they have an average price of 6.15 in the win market and just a 16.26% chance of defeating Liverpool for just the second time in 29 attempts.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton to Win | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.15 | 6.00 | 6.50 |
| Liverpool to Win | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.44 |
| Draw | 4.33 | 4.50 | 4.80 | 5.00 | 4.60 |
⚽ Everton vs Liverpool: Both Teams To Score
As we’ve already touched on, Everton have kept six clean sheets at Goodison Park this season. However, they’ve also drawn five blanks in front of their own fans, while both teams have found the net in just six of their 16 EPL home matches (37.50%). Both sides have found the net in 12 of Liverpool’s 16 top-flight away games (75%), with Liverpool keeping four clean sheets and scoring every time they’ve taken to the road.
| BTTS | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| No | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.45 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
🥅 Everton vs Liverpool: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Everton’s 16 home matches in 2023/24 have yielded 36 goals in total, at a rate of just 2.25 per game. They’ve scored just 18 times at Goodison Park at a rate of 1.12 per 90 minutes. However, the 16 away matches contested by Liverpool have produced 49 goals at the much higher rate of 3.06 per 90. The Reds have struck 32 times on the road at a rate of exactly 2.00 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.53 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.38 | 2.40 | 2.41 | 2.50 | 2.38 |
✔️ Everton vs Liverpool - Betting Tips
With some Everton vs Liverpool football betting markets being priced more favourably than others, you’ll have to be selective when picking your preferred wager types and outcomes. So, here are some betting tips to help you on your way!
- Tip 1: Back Under 2.5 Goals Being Scored: The odds imply a 65.35% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in this match. However, Everton’s 16 home matches this term have produced an average of just 2.25 goals per 90, while it took Liverpool 75 minutes to break down the Toffees’ deep-lying defence in the reverse fixture at Anfield. The last 10 Merseyside derbies at Goodison Park have produced just 18 goals too, so get on under 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes at a price of 2.50 with PalmSlots Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Liverpool to Win and Both Teams Not to Score: Despite Everton’s defensive approach and occasional wastefulness in front of goal, the pre-game odds imply a 66.66% probability of both teams scoring at Goodison Park. However, they’ll be starved of possession against Liverpool, whose defence is also back to full strength following the recent returns of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson. The Reds have only conceded one goal in the previous five head-to-head encounters home and away too, so get on them to win and both teams not to score at the enhanced price of 2.70 with 1Bet Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Mohamed Salah as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you want to maximise the value of any free bets that you have, you could wager on the anytime goalscorer market. Despite his recent patchy form, Liverpool talisman Mohamed Salah offers significant value here, having scored seven goals and assisted one in just 10 EPL appearances against the Toffees. He’ll also be well rested after being left out of the starting 11 against Fulham at the weekend and has scored 17 EPL goals from an xG of just 18.3 this season. You can back Salah as an anytime scorer at a price of 2.00 with LegendPlay Sports.
1️⃣ Everton Update
After a harrowing run of 13 matches without a Premier League victory between December 16th and April 2nd, Everton have now won two of their previous three matches (both at Goodison Park). Relegation rivals Burnley and Nottingham Forest were impressively defeated in these encounters, enabling the Toffees to move five points clear of the relegation zone despite being docked eight points throughout the season. These results have lifted Everton to 18th in the EPL form table over the last 10 matches too, with the Toffees having taken nine points from the 30 available to them since February 10th.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Everton 2 Nottingham Forest 0 | 21.04.24 Premier League |
| Chelsea 6 Everton 0 | 15.04.24 Premier League |
| Everton 1 Burnley 0 | 06.04.24 Premier League |
| Newcastle 1 Everton 1 | 02.04.24 Premier League |
| Bournemouth 2 Everton 1 | 30.03.24 Premier League |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin will be assessed ahead of the Merseyside derby, having injured his knee in the weekend win over Forest. His replacement Beto also suffered a suspected concussion in the same game and has been ruled out of contention. The match may also come too soon for Seamus Coleman (groin injury), while Lewis Dobbin (ankle) won’t return until May. Both Dele Alli (fitness) and Nathan Patterson (thigh) are unlikely to play again this season but should be raring to go in time for pre-season.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Knee Injury |
| Beto | Head Injury |
| Seamus Coleman | Groin Injury |
| Lewis Dobbin | Ankle Injury |
| Dele Alli | Fitness |
| Nathan Patterson | Thigh Injury |
2️⃣ Liverpool Update
Liverpool’s hard-earned victory at Fulham arrested a run of just one win in four matches in all competitions, with this having seen them fall to third in the Premier League and exit the Europa League to Atalanta. They’ve now moved into joint first position alongside Arsenal in the EPL table, although Man City have a game in hand and remain in control of their own destiny in the title race. The Reds have also taken 20 points from the previous 30 available to them in the top flight, which is significantly less than title rivals Arsenal (25) and Man City (24) have earned during the same period.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Fulham 1 Liverpool 3 | 21.04.24 Premier League |
| Atalanta 0 Liverpool 1 | 18.04.24 UEFA Europa League |
| Liverpool 0 Crystal Palace 1 | 14.04.24 Premier League |
| Liverpool 0 Atalanta 3 | 11.04.24 UEFA Europa League |
| Man United 2 Liverpool 2 | 07.04.24 Premier League |
Liverpool are virtually at full strength ahead of the Merseyside derby, with both first choice full-backs and Diogo Jota all returning to fitness recently. However, Conor Bradley is out for the foreseeable future with an ankle complaint, while Thiago Alcantara (thigh) isn’t expected to feature in the remainder of the 2023/24 campaign. Joel Matip remains a long-term absentee and may not return until September, as he continues his recovery from a serious ACL injury.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Conor Bradley | Ankle Injury |
| Thiago | Thigh Injury |
| Joel Matip | Ruptured ACL |
👕 Everton vs Liverpool - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Everton 4-4-1-1 | Liverpool 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | J. Pickford | Alisson | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | A. Young | T. Alexander-Arnold | Right Back |
| Centre Back | J. Tarkowski | I. Konate | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | J. Branthwaite | V. van Dijk | Centre Back |
| Left Back | V. Mykolenko | A. Robertson | Left Back |
| Right Midfielder | J. Harrison | D. Szoboszlai | Midfielder |
| Central Midfielder | I. Gueye | W. Endo | Midfielder |
| Central Midfielder | J. Garner | A. Mac Allister | Midfielder |
| Left Midfielder | D. McNeil | M. Salah | Wide Forward |
| Attacking Midfielder | A. Doucouré | D. Jota | Striker |
| Striker | D. Calvert-Lewin | L. Diaz | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
