Chelsea v Man City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

chelsea-man-city-logo chelsea-man-city-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable16:30 GMT, 12th Nov 23
PredictionMan City to win!
OddsBack Man City to win @ 1.80
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
1.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.80
Bet €100 and win €180 if Man City win.
Bonus:
2.
betway
Odds : 1.78
Bet €100 and win €178 if Man City win.
Bonus:
€50+ 50 Free Spins
3.
Dach​bet Sports
Odds : 1.75
Bet €100 and win €175 if Man City win.
Bonus:
chelsea-man-city-logo chelsea-man-city-logo

Despite their inconsistent start to the 2023/24 Premier League season, Chelsea will be buoyed by their chaotic 4-1 victory at Spurs last time out, although they were given a huge helping hand by a Tottenham side that had two players dismissed. In fact, the Blues struggled to break down nine-men Spurs for a period, with Ange Postecoglou’s men maintaining a brave and noticeably high defensive line throughout. As for City, normal service has now resumed after successive losses prior to the recent international break, with Pep Guardiola’s team having now won five consecutive matches by an aggregate score of 17-3. In this football betting guide, I’ll preview the game in more detail and consider the ante post odds, while offering my own prediction about which side will prevail!

🏆 Chelsea v Man City

Chelsea and Manchester City have contested 175 matches since December 1907, and despite the northern sides’ recent dominance, the Blues have won on 71 occasions overall. City have won 65 of these encounters, including the last six in all competitions since Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea beat Guardiola’s men in the 2020/21 Champions League final.

This season, Chelsea have actually performed better than their results suggest, with their current xG value of 22.1 actually higher than that of their opponents (21.5). Herein lies Chelsea’s main issue, however, as their actual goals tally is -6.1 when compared to their xG value, whereas City have outperformed their expected goals figure by an impressive +6.5.

Key to this statistic and City’s heightened efficiency in front of goal is Erling Haaland, who already has 15 goals in 16 matches this season and looked in superb form during the Citizens’ thumping 3-0 UCL win over Young Boys in midweek. While Chelsea’s own young striker Nicholas Jackson struck a hattrick against Tottenham last time out, he has proved inconsistent over the course of the season and underperformed his individual xG by -1.9.

Chelsea also average 61.6% possession this season (second only to City), but they’re likely to be starved off the ball despite having home advantage on Sunday. This will suit an in-form and ruthless City side, who I expect to win and keep a clean sheet in west London.

My Prediction: 🏆 Chelsea 0 – 2 Manchester City ⚽

💯 Chelsea v Man City Match Odds

The market leading Premier League betting sites are offering a huge selection of markets ahead of the clash between Chelsea and Manchester City. The most popular markets include match winner betting, BTTS and totals betting on how many goals will be scored in the game, but how are these currently being priced by sportsbooks?

🏅 Chelsea v Man City: Match Winner

Whichever sportsbook you opt to wager with after reading Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews, the win market is likely to be the most popular and widely promoted. Here’s a look at the ante post odds, which unsurprisingly make Manchester City favourites.

Team
Chelsea to Win4.334.504.454.504.50
Man City to Win1.751.781.731.731.80
Draw3.603.603.603.753.75

Chelsea v Man City: Both Teams To Score

Manchester City have scored 42 goals in 18 matches across all competitions this season (at a rate of 2.33 per game), while they’ve only failed to score in two games so far in 2023/24. Mauricio Pochettino’s Chelsea have drawn blanks in four of their 10 matches this season, although they have improved of late and scored in six of their previous seven outings.

Yes/No
Yes1.701.751.681.671.73
No2.052.052.062.002.00

Chelsea v Man City: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

While both of these sides have conceded less than 1.00 goal per game this season, Chelsea have struggled for a consistent source of goals. However, the 32 matches contested by Chelsea and Manchester City have produced 91 goals at a rate of 2.84 per game, so the over/under odds imply a higher probability of more than 2.5 goals being scored at Stamford Bridge.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.751.781.761.731.80
Under 2.5 Goals1.951.911.942.001.91

✔️ Chelsea v Man City - Betting Tips

Before you start to place your Chelsea v Manchester City wagers or use any free bet on your online account, it’s important to do your research and look to create as much value as possible. So, here are some betting tips to help you get started!

  • Tip 1: Back Both Sides Not to Score: While the BTTS odds imply a higher probability of both sides scoring at the Bridge, this arguably ignores City’s superb run of form and their ability to completely dominate and control matches. Sure, Chelsea have scored in six of their last seven games and hit four at Spurs, but the scoreline at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium was flattering for the Blues and influenced by the home side’s ill-discipline. With City also close to full strength and more solid since the return of the influential John Stones, I think there’s value in backing both teams not to score at a price of 2.06 with Betiton.
  • Tip 2: Back City to Win With Under 3.5 Goals Scored: While I expect City to keep a clean sheet at Stamford Bridge, I also think that Pochettino’s well organised and high energy side will remain competitive throughout. I certainly don’t think that Pep Guardiola’s side will run away with the contest, while they may have to be patient in their attempts to break down the home team. So, there’s genuine value in backing City to win with under 3.5 goals scored in the game at the competitive price of 2.60 with Betway.
  • Tip 3: Back Julian Alvarez to Score First: The first goalscorer market always offers significant value, with even Erling Haaland priced as long as 4.00 to strike first at Stamford Bridge. However, he’s likely to be well marshalled throughout by the Chelsea defence, and this may create space for the quick and intelligent Argentine forward Julian Alvarez (who has also become an effective free kick taker in 2023/24). You can also back Alvarez to score first at the generous price of 7.50 with TonyBet Sports, although you may want to offset the market’s increased risk by wagering a nominal stake amount.

1️⃣ Chelsea Update

Despite their recent, morale boosting win at Spurs, Chelsea’s Premier League form remains patchy, with the side having won four and lost four of their previous 10 matches (taking 14 points from the previous 30 available to them). As I’ve already touched on, this inconsistency has much to do with the lack of a sustained goal scoring threat, with the Blues having averaged 1.54 goals per game in the Premier League (and 1.57 in all competitions) and dramatically underperformed when compared to their xG value. In short, they’ve struggled to successfully convert chances throughout the season, and this is a flaw that could cost them dear against a ruthless Manchester City side.

Last 5 Games
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 4
06.11.23
Premier League
Chelsea 2
Blackburn Rovers 0
01.11.23
EFL Cup
Chelsea 0
Brentford 2
28.10.23
Premier League
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 2
21.10.23
Premier League
Burnley 1
Chelsea 4
07.10.23
Premier League

The Blues remain without several first team players ahead of the visit of Man City, including left back Ben Chilwell (hamstring injury), Armando Broja (knee) and Carney Chukwuemeka (knee). These players have joined longer-term absentees on the injury list, including Wesley Fofana (cruciate ligament tear) and Trevoh Chalobah (thigh problems), while reserve keeper Marcus Bettinelli also misses out with an unknown complaint. However, summer signing Christopher Nkunku is nearing full fitness and could even feature from the bench at Stamford Bridge.

PlayerReason
Ben Chilwell Hamstring Injury
Carney Chukwuemeka Knee Injury
Armando Broja Knee Injury
Wesley Fofana Cruciate Ligament Tear
Trevoh Chalobah Thigh Injury
Marcus Bettinelli Unknown Injury

2️⃣ Manchester City Update

After experiencing successive defeats for the first time in five years (against Newcastle and Wolves respectively) and losing three out of five games prior to the last international break, City have returned to top form and reeled off five consecutive victories in all competitions. What’s more, they’ve plundered 17 goals at a rate of 3.40 per game and conceded just three during this sequence, while vanquishing bitter rivals Manchester United 3-0 at Old Trafford and qualifying for the UCL round of 16 with a 100% winning record. The side is also close to being at full strength, and there’s no doubt that they’re starting to build significant momentum just as their closest challengers start to waiver.

Last 5 Games
Man City 3
Young Boys 0
08.11.23
Champions League
Man City 6
Bournemouth 1
04.11.23
Premier League
Man United 0
Man City 3
29.10.23
Premier League
Young Boys 1
Man City 3
25.10.23
Champions League
Man City2
Brighton 1
21.10.23
Premier League

The return of John Stones from injury has really boosted City of late, while new signing Jeremy Doku has already hit top form and added a completely new dimension to the team’s attack. Currently, the only long-term absentee is the talismanic midfielder Kevin De Bruyne, who continues his recovery from a partial muscle tear and has already missed 19 matches for the Citizens.

Player Reason
Kevin De Bruyne Partial Muscle Tear

👕 Chelsea v Man City - Potential Lineups

Pos. Chelsea
4-3-3
Man City
3-2-4-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper R. Sanchez Ederson Goalkeeper
Right Back R. James K. Walker Right Centre Back
Centre Back A. Disasi R. Dias Centre Back
Centre Back T. Silva J. Gvardiol Left Centre Back
Left Back L. Colwill J. Stones Midfielder
Midfielder M. Caicedo Rodri Midfielder
Midfielder C. Gallagher J. Doku Right Midfielder
Midfielder E. Fernandez B. Silva Attacking Midfielder
Wide Forward C. Palmer J. Alvarez Attacking Midfielder
Striker N. Jackson J. Grealish Left Midfielder
Wide Forward R. Sterling E. Haaland Striker

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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