Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

brentford-v-liverpool-logo brentford-v-liverpool-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable12:30 GMT, 17th Feb 24
PredictionLiverpool to Win!
Odds1.60
Bookmaker1Bet Sports
Liverpool to Win!
The best odds
1.
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.60
Bet €100 and win €160 if Liverpool win.
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2.
betway
Odds : 1.57
Bet €100 and win €157 if Liverpool win.
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3.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.57
Bet €100 and win €157 if Liverpool win.
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Brentford v Liverpool Brentford v Liverpool

While Brentford’s talismanic Ivan Toney has scored three goals in four games since his long-awaited return, the Bees remain mired in a poor run of form that has seen them won just three times in their last 12 matches since November 4th. However, they won superbly at in-form Wolves last time out, and will entertain a Liverpool side that looked unconvincing and incredibly open against Burnley last time out. But can Brentford repeat their historic Premier League victory over Liverpool in January 2023, or will the Reds maintain their place at the top of the table? Here’s my take and analysis of the odds being offered by the best betting sites.

🏆 Brentford vs Liverpool EPL Prediction

Brentford’s high octane 3-1 win over Liverpool on January 2nd, 2023 was their first ever EPL triumph over the Reds. It was also their first top-flight victory over Liverpool since November 19th, 1938, while they’ve only ever beaten the Merseyside club four times (in 20 attempts) in their entire history.

The two teams are currently separated by 13 places and 29 points, although Brentford’s season may well have played out differently had Toney been available throughout. For example, the Bees have missed 46 big chances in the 2023/24 Premier League (the joint-second highest such number behind Chelsea), while underperforming their xG value of 38.3 by a whopping -5.3 goals.

While Liverpool have also missed 46 big chances, they’ve only underperformed their xG value by -0.7 goals. The Reds are also among one of the most physical and relentless sides in the division, completing a league-high 1315 ball recoveries this season and winning 57.4% of their aerial duels (which could help to counter Brentford’s direct playing style and the strength of Ivan Toney).

Brentford have also looked jaded at times this season, with their small squad having been impacted significantly by injuries and suspensions. To compound matters for the Bees, Mohamed Salah could be in line for a return after resuming full training in midweek, but even without the Egyptian, Liverpool’s remaining attackers should have too much for the struggling home side.

My Prediction: 🏆 Brentford 1 – 3 Liverpool ⚽

💯 Brentford vs Liverpool EPL Match Odds

As usual, you’ll be able to access a huge range of football betting markets when wagering on the EPL clash between Brentford and Liverpool. These includes the match winner and result, BTTS and the over /under on the total number of goals scored, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Brentford vs Liverpool: Match Winner

It should come as no surprise that Liverpool are the overwhelming favourites to defeat Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium, with their average price of 1.57 implying a 63.69% probability of an away win. Conversely, the Bees are priced as high as 5.50 to overcome the Reds, suggesting that they have just an 18.18% chance of achieving this objective.

Team
Brentford to Win5.005.005.105.505.00
Liverpool to Win1.601.571.561.551.57
Draw4.334.504.404.204.40

⚽ Brentford vs Liverpool: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 15 of Brentford’s 23 EPL matches this season (65%), including seven of their previous eight games. They’ve failed to score on just four occasions, while no team in the Premier League has lost more points more winning positions (26) than the Bees this season. Intriguingly, the Reds have won the most points having fallen behind in 2023/24 (19), with both sides have found the net in 16 of their 24 EPL matches (67%). Liverpool have only failed to score once in the top-flight this season too.

Yes/No
Yes1.531.601.521.621.62
No2.382.302.432.202.38

🥅 Brentford vs Liverpool: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Brentford’s 12 Premier League matches have produced 44 goals at a rate of 3.66 per game, while their last five outings at the Gtech Community Stadium have yielded 21 goals. As for Liverpool, their 12 away encounters have seen 35 goals scored at a rate of 2.91 per 90, so the odds imply a much higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.441.481.461.481.50
Under 2.5 Goals2.502.602.532.502.50

✔️ Brentford vs Liverpool - Betting Tips

Whether you want to wager using your bankroll or one or more free bets on your chosen sportsbook account, there are a number of intriguingly priced markets to consider. So, here are some expert betting tips to help you navigate these successfully.

  • Tip 1: Back Over 3.5 Goals Being Scored: Most over/under wagering activity will be around the 2.5 goals betting line, but it’s interesting to note that the last five clashes between these two teams have produced 17 goals at a rate of 3.40 per 90. Brentford’s previous 10 league games home and away have also seen 36 goals scored at both ends of the pitch, while Liverpool have now scored three goals or more in each of their last five Premier League encounters. So, there may be some value in backing over 3.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.30 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 2: Back Diogo Jota as an Anytime Goalscorer: While Salah may be fit enough to return to the matchday squad against Brentford, he’s most likely to start from the bench in West London. This should enable the talented Diogo Jota to keep his place in the first 11, with the Portuguese forward having scored five in his last six outings in the Premier League. He has also outperformed his xG value of 4.1 by +4.9 goals, with only Son Heung-min matching this level of efficiency in the top-flight. So, get on Jota as anytime scorer at a price of 5.25 with Betway.
  • Tip 3: Back Brentford to Score First: It’s striking that the Bees have lost 26 points from winning positions this season, including nine in their previous five matches. They’ve taken the lead in 15 EPL matches in total since the beginning of the campaign, even in the 3-1 defeat against Man City on February 5th. As for Liverpool, they typically come on strong later on in matches, scoring more goals (34) and conceding less (10) than any other side in the second half of Premier League matches. So, consider backing Brentford to score first at a price of 2.88 with 1Bet Sports.

1️⃣ Brentford Update

Brentford’s recent run of three Premier League wins in 12 matches can be traced back to their 3-0 loss at Anfield on November 12th, 2023, in a match where they actually outperformed their hosts xG value (1.66 to 1.57) and had 16 attempts on goal. This match serves as a microcosm of the Bees’ season, as they’ve struggled to make the most of their chances in the absence of Ivan Toney and failed to convert much of their good attacking work. So, although Toney has scored in three goals in four matches since his return, Brentford remain 16th in the EPL form table and have taken just nine points from the previous 30 available to them.

Last 5 Games
Wolves 0
Brentford 2
10.02.24
Premier League
Brentford 1
Man City 3
05.02.24
Premier League
Tottenham 3
Brentford 2
31.01.24
Premier League
Brentford 3
Nottingham Forest 2
20.01.24
Premier League
Wolves 3
Brentford 2
16.01.24
FA Cup

Despite Toney’s return, Brentford could still be without several first-team players against Liverpool. These include Bryan Mbeumo, who remains the Bees’ top scorer this season and is sidelined with an ankle injury. Winger Kevin Schade is also a doubt with an adductor injury, while Aaron Hickey (hamstring) could miss out at the Gtech Community Stadium too. Rico Henry (knee) and Ryan Trevitt (ankle) have been ruled out for the season, although Yoane Wissa and Frank Onyeka (both international duty) could well be in contention to start on Saturday.

PlayerReason
Bryan MbeumoAnkle Injury
Kevin SchadeAdductor Injury
Aaron HickeyHamstring Injury
Rico HenryKnee Injury
Ryan TrevittAnkle Injury

2️⃣ Liverpool Update

Liverpool’s recent 3-1 win over Burnley also represented their season in microcosm, as they gave up plenty of space and chances in the defensive third before overpowering their rivals with their movement and variation in attack. This victory also helped keep Reds top of the Premier League and EPL form table, as they’ve taken 23 points from the last 30 available to them and scored 16 goals in their previous five matches. With Mo Salah also on the brink of a return, the Reds will be confident of continuing their good form in West London.

Last 5 Games
Liverpool 3
Burnley 1
10.02.24
Premier League
Arsenal 3
Liverpool 1
04.02.24
Premier League
Liverpool 4
Chelsea 1
31.01.24
Premier League
Liverpool 5
Norwich City 2
28.01.23
FA Cup
Fulham 1
Liverpool 1
24.01.23
EFL Cup

While it’s unclear whether Salah will return to the matchday squad this weekend, Liverpool will definitely welcome back Conor Bradley from compassionate leave and centre back Ibrahima Konate from a one-match suspension. Full back Kostas Tsimikas is also close to a return from a broken collarbone, although Trent Alexander-Arnold has been ruled out for several weeks with a knee injury. Stefan Bajcetic (calf injury), Dominik Szoboszlai (hamstring) and Thiago (muscle) are unavailable too, as is young winger Ben Doak (who has a meniscus tear). Centre back Joel Matip is out for the season with a cruciate ligament tear.

PlayerReason
Mohamed SalahHamstring Injury
Kostas TsimikasShoulder Surgery
Trent Alexander-ArnoldKnee Injury
Stefan BajceticCalf Injury
Dominik SzoboszlaiHamstring Injury
ThiagoMuscle Injury
Ben DoakMeniscus Injury
Joel MatipCruciate Ligament Tear

👕 Brentford vs Liverpool - Potential Lineups

Pos.Brentford
3-5-2
Liverpool
4-3-3
Pos.
GoalkeeperM. FlekkenAlissonGoalkeeper
Right Centre BackN. CollinsC. BradleyRight Back
Centre BackE. PinnockI. KonateCentre Back
Left Centre BackB. MeeV. van DijkCentre Back
Right Wing BackM. RoerslevA. RobertsonLeft Back
MidfielderM. JensenA. Mac AllisterMidfielder
MidfielderC. NørgaardW. EndoMidfielder
MidfielderV. JaneltC. JonesMidfielder
Left Wing BackS. ReguilónD. NunezWide Forward
StrikerI. ToneyD. JotaStriker
StrikerN. MaupayL. Diaz Wide Forward

Liverpool to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Brentford vs liverpool feb Brentford vs liverpool feb

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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