Aston Villa vs Arsenal: Match Prediction, Betting Tips and Odds

aston-villa-v-arsenal-logo aston-villa-v-arsenal-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable17:30 GMT, 9th Dec 23
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds3.60
BookmakerBetiton
Back the Draw!
The best odds
1.
Betiton
Odds : 3.60
Bet €360 and win €360 if the match is drawn.
Bonus:
€10
2.
Dach​bet Sports
Odds : 3.60
Bet €100 and win €360 if the match is drawn.
Bonus:
3.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 3.60
Bet €100 and win €360 if the match is drawn.
Bonus:
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Unai Emery’s brilliant Aston Villa side showcased their Premier League top four credentials with a superb 1-0 home win over Manchester City in midweek, with some even suggesting that the Midlanders could even mount a title challenge after leapfrogging Pep Guardiola’s men in third. However, the table topping Gunners are a different proposition at present, as they continue to grind out results without playing their best and are usually defensively resolute on the road. But can Villa go again and extend their incredible winning run at home to 15 EPL games, and how are the best betting sites pricing the various match markets?

🏆 Aston Villa vs Arsenal EPL Prediction

Since May 2011, Villa have only beaten Arsenal in four of their 20 head-to-head encounters, while they’ve incurred 15 defeats during the same sequence. Two of their victories have come at Villa Park, including a 1-0 win in February 2021 (when Ollie Watkins second-minute strike was enough to defeat Mikel Arteta’s men).

Emery’s Villa are now the real deal, however, with their run of 14 successive home victories stretching back to February 18th and including notable wins over Newcastle, Spurs and now Manchester City. However, the last side to defeat Villa in front of their own fans was Arsenal themselves, with the Gunners prevailing 4-2 in a thrilling, see-saw encounter.

Statistically speaking, Arsenal are also one of the most efficient and well-rounded sides in the Premier League. To this end, they’ve averaged 61.0% in the EPL this season (second only to Brighton and Manchester City), while winning 54.2% of their tackles (only Luton have been more successful in this respect). They’ve also outperformed their xG value by +4.4 goals, proving ruthless in attack and defensively resilient for much of the campaign.

However, they looked vulnerable when conceding three goals at Luton in midweek, with goalkeeper David Raya at fault for at least of these strikes. Villa will also look to apply pressure and attack the Gunners’ high line, having already attempted 307 take-ons so far this season. These factors should contribute to an open and entertaining game, and while I expect the home side’s winning run to come to an end this weekend, I also think they’ll escape Villa Park with a point.

My Prediction: 🏆 Aston Villa 2 – 2 Arsenal ⚽

💯 Aston Villa vs Arsenal EPL Match Odds

If you compare the sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s comprehensive bookmaker reviews, you’ll see that many offer a huge range of Aston Villa vs Arsenal betting markets. Below, I’ll analyse the match winner, BTTS and over/under markets in more detail, while taking a look at the very latest odds!

🏅 Aston Villa vs Arsenal: Match Winner

Arsenal are the favourites to end Villa’s home winning run, with their average price of 2.10 implying a 47.61% probability of an away victory. Odds of 3.30 for a Villa win suggest that the home team have a 30.30% chance of winning, while the draw can be backed at around 3.50 (which implies a 28.57% probability of this outcome occurring).

Team
Aston Villa to Win3.303.303.253.403.40
Arsenal to Win2.002.102.091.952.00
Draw3.603.503.603.503.60

⚽ Aston Villa vs Arsenal: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 15 of Aston Villa’s 23 matches in all competitions this season, with Emery’s men having kept a total of six clean sheets (albeit just one in their previous nine EPL games) and failed to score on just two occasions. As for the Gunners, they’ve also played 23 matches in 2023/24, in which both sides have found the net on 12 occasions. Arteta’s men have kept 10 clean sheets in total, five of which have come on the road.

Yes/No
Yes1.571.621.571.601.57
No2.252.302.302.382.25

🥅 Aston Villa vs Arsenal: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Between them, Aston Villa and Arsenal have contested a total of 46 matches in 2023/24, with these encounters yielding 154 goals at a rate of 3.34 per 90. This reflects both teams’ incredible attacking quality (both collectively and individually), while it also justifies the fact that the odds imply a higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the game!

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.671.701.671.701.73
Under 2.5 Goals2.052.102.082.102.00

✔️ Aston Villa vs Arsenal - Betting Tips

If you have one or more free bets available to you, Villa v Arsenal provides you with the ideal opportunity to engage in matched betting. This enables you to lay a back bet against either side to win at a reputable betting exchange (such as Ladbrokes), covering all potential outcomes will securing a small profit. If you don’t have any available, you can follow these betting tips to make the most of your bankroll!

  • Tip 1: Back Over 3.5 to be Scored: Most over/under wagering activity takes place around the 2.5 goals betting line, but the matches featuring these sides have produced an average of 3.34 goals per 90 minutes in 2023/24. Villa created multiple chances against City too, while Arsenal looked dangerous in attack and defensively vulnerable during their see-saw, 4-3 win at Luton in midweek. So, I think there’s greater value in backing over 3.5 goals being scored at an enhanced price of 2.92 with Dachbet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Ollie Watkins at an Anytime Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins has already scored eight EPL goals this season, from 45 attempts and an xG value of 8.1. He’ll also relish Arsenal’s high defensive line and has struck four goals in six EPL starts against the Gunners, while he scored the winner when Villa last won this fixture in 2021. So, he offers value as an anytime goalscorer here at a price of 3.00 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back the Draw: While the draw is the least likely outcome from a statistical perspective, the match odds don’t reflect Villa’s immense home form and the fact that the Gunners have yet to play at their fluent best either home or away. However, they’ve developed an innate ability to grind out results, while the Villains may also be tired after their efforts in midweek. So, consider backing the draw outright at a price of 3.60 with Betiton Sports.

1️⃣ Aston Villa Update

In addition to their 14-game winning streak at home, Villa are third in the EPL form table over the last 10 matches. During this period, they’ve won seven games and lost just once, while earning 23 points out of the 30 available to them. Even more intriguingly, Emery’s team are third in the annual EPL table for 2023, having amassed 23 wins and 75 points since the beginning of January. This is more than Liverpool, Manchester United and Newcastle during the same period, while it highlights their impressive consistency and the challenge that they pose to the Premier League’s so-called “big six”.

Last 5 Games
Aston Villa 1
Man City 0
06.12.23
Premier League
Bournemouth 2
Aston Villa 2
03.12.23
Premier League
Aston Villa 2
Legia Warsaw 1
30.11.23
Europa League
Tottenham 1
Aston Villa 2
26.11.23
Premier League
Aston Villa 3
Fulham 1
12.11.23
Premier League

Emery spoke about his players feeling tired and sore prior to the clash with City, but no new injury concerns have been raised ahead of the game. So, the only long-term absentees remain Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia (both cruciate ligament tear), with the former out for the season and the latter expected to return in February.

PlayerReason
Tyrone Mings Cruciate Ligament Tear
Emiliano Buendia Cruciate Ligament Tear

2️⃣ Arsenal Update

The Gunners are one of just two sides to sit above Villa in the Premier League form table, with the side having also taken 23 points from the last 30 available to them but achieved a goal difference of +14 (compared to +13 for Villa). Interestingly, Arsenal also sit above the Villains in the annual EPL table, having amassed two more points (77) during 2023. This season, the Gunners also have the best away record in the division, having won five of their seven matches on the road and accumulated 16 points out of 21.

Last 5 Games
Luton 3
Arsenal 4
05.12.23
Premier League
Arsenal 2
Wolves 1
02.12.23
Premier League
Arsenal 6
RC Lens 0
29.11.23
Champions League
Brentford 0
Arsenal 1
25.11.23
Premier League
Arsenal 3
Burnley 1
11.11.23
Premier League

Arsenal are also virtually at full strength after the return to full fitness of Gabriel Jesus and the influential Bukayo Saka. However, Thomas Partey is sidelined until the New Year with a hamstring injury, while fellow midfielder Emile Smith Rowe will also miss out with a knee injury. Dutch utility man Jurrien Timber remains a long-term absentee following his cruciate ligament tear.

PlayerReason
Thomas Partey Hamstring Injury
Emile Smith Rowe Knee Injury
Jurrien Timber Cruciate Ligament Tear

👕 Aston Villa v Arsenal - Potential Lineups

Pos. Aston Villa
4-2-2-2
Arsenal
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper E. Martinez D. Raya Goalkeeper
Right Back E. Konsa B. White Right Back
Centre Back D. Carlos W. Saliba Centre Back
Centre Back P. Torres Gabriel Centre Back
Left Back L. Digne O. Zinchenko Left Back
Defensive Midfielder B. Kamara M. Ødegaard Midfielder
Defensive Midfielder D. Luiz Jorginho Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder Y. Tielemans D. Rice Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder J. McGinn B. Saka Wide Forward
Striker M. Diaby G. Jesus Striker
Striker O. Watkins G. Martinelli Wide Forward

Back the Draw!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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