Arsenal vs Bournemouth Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable12:30 GMT, 4th May 24
PredictionBack Arsenal to Win!
Odds1.18
BookmakerRoyalistplay Sports
Back Arsenal to Win!
The best odds
1.
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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.18
Bet €100 and win €118 if Arsenal win.
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1​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.17
Bet €100 and win €117 if Arsenal win.
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Arsenal kept up their Premier League title charge with a nerve-jangling 3-2 win at bitter rivals Spurs last week, surviving a late comeback to remain a point clear of Man City at the top of the table (albeit having played a game more). Next for the Gunners is a home game against Bournemouth, who are enjoying their best ever EPL campaign having amassed 48 points from 35 matches and scaled the heights of 10th place. This will be a tough assignment for both teams, although Arsenal are the clear favourites among Ireland’s leading football betting sites. But which team do I think will win at the Emirates?

🏆 Arsenal vs Bournemouth EPL Prediction

Arsenal won last season’s corresponding fixture 3-2, recovering a two-goal deficit and prevailing thanks to Reiss Nelson’s stunning 97th-minute strike. They also triumphed in the reverse fixture during this campaign, thrashing the Cherries 4-0 at the Vitality Stadium and accumulating an impressive xG of 4.07.

This contributed to Arsenal’s total xG of 75.54, which has only been bettered by Liverpool and Manchester City this season. However, no team has been as efficient in front of goal as the Gunners, who have outperformed their xG by +9.46 goals. They also average 0.37 goals per shot on target, with only Newcastle performing betting according to this metric.

Head coach Andoni Iraola has certainly made Bournemouth more proactive this season, both in and out of possession. In fact, the Cherries have executed 25.17 shot-creating actions per 90 this season, ranking eighth in the Premier League by this metric. They’ve also recovered an impressive 1,868 loose balls, highlighting their greater desire to press the opposition all over the park.

So, Bournemouth should be competitive and boast a significant attacking threat at the Emirates, especially with star striker Dominic Solanke having scored 18 Premier League goals from an xG of 18.6. However, Arsenal remain focused, well-balanced and ruthless in the attacking third, so I’m backing them to secure another crucial three points in front of their own fans.

My Prediction: 🏆 Arsenal 3 – 1 Bournemouth ⚽

💯 Arsenal vs Bournemouth EPL Match Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have published odds across a broad range of Arsenal vs Bournemouth markets, including the match winner. You can also wager on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. But how are each of these betting markets currently being priced?

🏅 Arsenal vs Bournemouth: Match Winner

As I’ve already touched on, Arsenal are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Bournemouth at the Emirates and is priced at around 1.17 to prevail. These odds imply an 85.47% probability of a home win. Conversely, Bournemouth can be backed to claim their seventh away win of the season at around 12.30, suggesting that they have just an 8.13% chance of achieving this objective.

Team
Arsenal to Win1.171.181.161.171.18
Bournemouth to Win13.0012.0012.3013.0012.00
Draw7.007.507.407.007.50

⚽ Arsenal vs Bournemouth: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in just nine of Arsenal’s 17 home matches in this season’s EPL (53%), with the Gunners keeping six clean sheets and failing to score twice. Conversely, 12 of the 17 away games contested by Bournemouth have seen both sides find the net (71%). The Cherries have kept four clean sheets and drawn just a single blank on the road.

Yes/No
Yes1.831.851.901.801.80
No1.871.911.802.001.91

🥅 Arsenal vs Bournemouth: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Arsenal’s 17 home matches have also yielded 58 goals in total, at a rate of 3.41 per game. The Gunners have conceded just 15 times at home and scored 43 goals at a rate of 2.52 per 90 minutes. Bournemouth’s 17 away games have produced 60 goals at the slightly higher rate of 3.52 per 90. However, the Cherries have conceded 34 of these goals at a rate of exactly 2.00 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.301.351.311.331.33
Under 2.5 Goals3.103.103.113.253.20

✔️ Arsenal vs Bournemouth - Betting Tips

Although Arsenal are heavy favourites to win this EPL clash, there are plenty of alternative betting markets that may offer value. You can also use combination betting to help create value in some instances, whether you’re wagering with your hard-earned money or leveraging available free bets on your account.

  • Tip 1: Back Over 3.5 Goals Being Scored: Most over/under betting is focused around the 2.5 goals line, but the match between Bournemouth and Arsenal has the potential to be particularly high scoring. Remember, the Gunners have scored 21 goals in the seven home matches they’ve contested in 2024 so far, while the Cherries have scored 26 goals in 17 games on the road at a rate of 1.52 per 90 minutes. So, we’d recommend backing over 3.5 goals being scored here at the competitive price of 1.91 with Royalist Play.
  • Tip 2: Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: Arsenal are the overwhelming favourites to defeat Bournemouth at the Emirates, so building a combination bet around this outcome could create far greater value when engaging in match betting. Interestingly, the odds also imply a 52.35% probability of both teams scoring in North London, with the Gunners having drawn just two blanks at home this season and Bournemouth scoring in 12 consecutive away games since a 3-0 defeat at Everton on October 7th. You can get on the Gunners to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 2.50 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Martin Ødegaard as an Anytime Goalscorer: Arsenal skipper Martin Ødegaard has produced 16 goal involvements in 32 EPL appearances this season, including eight goals from 69 shots and an xG of 6.3. The Norwegian has also scored three goals and contributed a single assist in just three career outings against Bournemouth, including a penalty in the 4-0 win at the Vitality Stadium earlier in the season. So, there’s value in backing Ødegaard as an anytime goalscorer at a

    price of 3.00 with LegendPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

Arsenal showcased both composure and resilience during the North London derby last weekend, moving seamlessly into a 3-0 lead before surviving a late Spurs revival. They’ve now won 13 of their 15 league matches in 2024 and taken 25 points from the previous 30 available to them in the EPL, with only title rivals Manchester City (26) earning more during the same period. However, Bournemouth will draw solace from the fact that the Gunners have conceded more goals at home (15) than they have on the road (13) this season, while they’ve also kept just six of their 16 clean sheets at the Emirates Stadium.

Last 5 Games
Tottenham 2
Arsenal 3
28.04.24
Premier League
Arsenal 5
Chelsea 0
23.04.24
Premier League
Wolves 0
Arsenal 2
20.04.24
Premier League
Bayern Munich 1
Arsenal 0
17.04.24
UEFA Champions League
Arsenal 0
Aston Villa 2
14.04.24
Premier League

Once again, Arsenal are virtually at full strength ahead of the visit of Bournemouth. In fact, Dutch defender Jurrien Timber remains the Gunners’ sole absentee at the time of writing, as he continues his recovery from an ACL injury and aims for a return towards the very end of the 2023/24 campaign.

PlayerReason
Jurrien Timber ACL Injury

2️⃣ Bournemouth Update

Bournemouth have endured a stellar 2023/24 campaign, amassing their highest ever Premier League points tally (48) with three matches still to play. This is despite the Cherries enduring a torrid start under Iraola, which saw the team go winless in their first nine EPL matches and pick up just three points during this period. Currently, Bournemouth sit third in the Premier League form table, having won six of their previous 10 matches and taken 20 points from the 30 available to them since the beginning of March. They’ve also win an impressive 21 points on the road so far this season and failed to score only once away from home.

Last 5 Games
Bournemouth 3
Brighton 0
28.04.24
Premier League
Wolves 0
Bournemouth 1
24.04.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 3
Bournemouth 1
21.04.24
Premier League
Bournemouth 2
Man United 2
13.04.24
Premier League
Luton 2
Bournemouth 1
06.04.24
Premier League

Both Antoine Semenyo (knee injury) and Chris Mepham (illness) remain sidelined for the trip to North London, while Illia Zabarnyi (also illness) and Tyler Adams (lower back) will continue to be assessed this week. Left back Milos Kerkez will miss out as he commences a three-game ban. Longer-term absentees include Romain Faivre (thigh), Luis Sinisterra (thigh) and Marcus Tavernier (hamstring), with all three players likely to miss much of the remainder of the season. Ryan Fredericks (calf) definitely wont play again in 2023/24.

PlayerReason
Romain Faivre Thigh Injury
Illia Zabarnyi Illness
Milos Kerkez Suspended
Marcus Tavernier Hamstring Injury
Tyler Adams Lower Back
Antoine Semenyo Knee Injury
Chris Mepham Illness
Luis Sinisterra Thigh Injury
Ryan Fredericks Calf Injury

👕 Arsenal vs Bournemouth - Potential Lineups

Pos. Arsenal
4-3-3
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper D. Raya Neto Goalkeeper
Right Back B. White A. Smith Right Back
Centre Back W. Saliba M. Senesi Centre Back
Centre Back Gabriel L. Kelly Centre Back
Left Back J. Kiwior M. Aarons Left Back
Midfielder M. Ødegaard L. Cook Midfielder
Midfielder T. Partey A. Scott Midfielder
Midfielder D. Rice Enes Ünal Midfielder
Wide Forward B. Saka D. Ouattara Wide Forward
Striker K. Havertz D. Solanke Striker
Wide Forward L. Trossard J. Kluivert Wide Forward

Back Arsenal to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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