Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

arsenal-v-aston-villa-logo arsenal-v-aston-villa-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable16:30 GMT, 14th April 24
PredictionArsenal to win!
Odds1.33
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.33
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1​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.25
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arsenal-v-aston-villa-logo arsenal-v-aston-villa-logo

Arsenal now sit top of the Premier League after their supremely professional 3-0 win at Brighton last weekend, while extending their unbeaten run to 11 top flight matches in 2024. However, they remain level on points with Liverpool ahead of the visit of Aston Villa, while defending champions Manchester City are just a single point behind in third. The Gunners will expect to prevail here having lost just one of their 15 home league games in 2023/24, although Man City remain the only side to defeat Villa on the road in 2024 so far. But which side do I think will triumph at the Emirates Stadium?

🏆 Arsenal vs Aston Villa EPL Prediction

Of course, Unai Emery’s charges defeated the Gunners 1-0 at Villa Park in the reverse fixture on December 9th, courtesy of John McGinn’s early goal. However, Arsenal dominated for extended periods in the Midlands, accumulating an xG of 1.72 and creating several high-quality chances in front of goal. Villa only produced a collective xG of 0.63 and struggled after taking an early lead.

Interestingly, Arsenal and Villa are among the most efficient Premier League teams in the attacking third. In fact, they’ve outperformed their collective xG values of 62.3 and 54.9 by +12.7 and +11.1 goals respectively, while Villa’s goals-per-shot ratio of 0.13 remains the joint-highest in the league. However, Arsenal’s is only marginally lower at 0.12, with the Gunners scoring 75 EPL goals from just 165 shots on target.

Although neither side requires much of an invitation to find the back of the net, Arsenal are far superior from a defensive perspective. In fact, the Gunners have conceded just 24 goals so far in the 2023/24 campaign, compared to the 49 shipped by Villa both home and away. Mikel Arteta’s men have also won 51.9% of their tackles and conceded just five set-piece goals in the top flight.

Arsenal have also scored a league-high 18 goals from corners and free-kicks this season while defending set pieces remains a significant weakness for the Villains. This could prove crucial in a match that’s likely to be relatively tight and keenly contested, and I’m tipping the Gunners to record a potentially pivotal win in the title race.

My Prediction: 🏆 Arsenal 2 – 1 Aston Villa ⚽

💯 Arsenal vs Aston Villa EPL Match Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites are covering a huge range of markets ahead of the clash between Arsenal and Aston Villa. These include the match winner, both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored in the game. Here’s my take on these markets and their current odds.

🏅 Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Match Winner

Wagering on the match winner remains the most popular football betting market, with Arsenal priced at around 1.25 to defeat Villa. These odds imply an 80% probability of a home win. Conversely, you can back Villa to spring a surprise in North London at an average price of 9.10, suggesting that they have just a 10.98% chance of emerging victorious in the capital.

Team
Arsenal to Win1.251.291.241.241.33
Aston Villa to Win9.509.009.109.1010.00
Draw5.505.755.755.756.00

⚽ Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Both Teams To Score

While both teams have only scored in 45% of Arsenal’s matches in 2023/24, this increases to 60% for the Gunners’ home games. Arteta’s men have kept five clean sheets at the Emirates and failed to score just once (against West Ham on December 28th). Both sides have found the net in 69% of Aston Villa’s away matches this season, with the Midlands club keeping three clean sheets and drawing three blanks on the road.

Yes/No
Yes1.831.851.821.821.83
No1.871.911.851.851.91

🥅 Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Arsenal have contested 15 home matches in the 2023/24 Premier League so far, which have yielded 51 goals at a rate of 3.40 per game. The Gunners have scored 38 of these goals at a rate of 2.53 per 90 minutes. Although Villa’s 16 away matches have produced 53 goals at a similar rate of 3.31 per 90, they’ve conceded 27 of these (at 1.68 per game) and have a negative goal difference of -1 on the road.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.441.481.431.441.48
Under 2.5 Goals2.502.602.582.582.60

✔️ Arsenal vs Aston Villa - Betting Tips

Villa’s disciplined 1-0 win over the Gunners in December kick-started a run of just one win in five EPL games for Arsenal, but they’ve since recovered from this and are heavy favourites to gain revenge in the return fixture. But what are the best betting tips and insights ahead of kick-off?

  • Tip 1: Back Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: If you want to back Arsenal to win at enhanced odds, you should consider combination betting. For example, the bookies are largely split on whether both teams will score or not at the Emirates, although the odds imply a 54.64% probability of Arsenal and Villa finding the net in North London. Remember, Villa have only failed to score in three of their 16 away matches in 2023/24, while the Gunners have conceded more at home (13) than they have on the road (11) this season. You can get on Arsenal to win and both teams to score at a price of 2.75 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Gabriel as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you want to make use of one of your available free bets, you could consider backing Arsenal centre back Gabriel as an anytime goalscorer. He has already contributed four of the Gunners’ 18 set-piece goals this season, while it should be noted that Villa have conceded 14 times from free-kicks and corners in 2023/24 (only Nottingham Forest and Burnley have shipped more). You can also get on Gabriel as an anytime scorer at the highly competitive price of 7.00 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back the First Half as the Highest Scoring Half: Arsenal and Villa have scored 34 and 32 first-half goals, respectively this season, with these clubs dominating this metric so far. Incredibly, Emery’s side have scored 25 of their 66 league goals (38%) in the opening 30 minutes of matches, with Arsenal striking 10 times in the first 15 minutes of their games in 2023/24. Because of this, there’s value in backing the first 45 minutes at the Emirates to be the highest-scoring half, especially at the enhanced price of price of 3.20 with PalmSlots Sports.

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

Arsenal are now unbeaten in 11 Premier League matches since the turn of the year, winning 10 of these fixtures and scoring 38 goals at a rate of 3.45 per 90 minutes. They’ve only shipped four goals during this sequence too, while the Gunners have kept three successive clean sheets and haven’t conceded since Yoane Wissa scored at the Emirates in Brentford’s 2-1 defeat at the Emirates on March 9th. Overall, the Gunners have taken 31 points from the 33 available to them in 2024, outperforming both Manchester City (30 points) and Liverpool (29 points) this calendar year.

Last 5 Games
Arsenal 2
Bayern Munich 2
09.04.24
UEFA Champions League
Brighton 0
Arsenal 3
06.04.24
Premier League
Arsenal 2
Luton Town 0
03.04.24
Premier League
Man City 0
Arsenal 0
31.03.24
Premier League
Arsenal 1
FC Porto 0
12.03.24
UEFA Champions League

While Bukayo Saka was left limping at the end of Arsenal’s thrilling Champions League clash against Bayern in midweek, he’s widely expected to be fit for the visit of Aston Villa. Otherwise, Dutch utility player Jurrien Timber remains the only confirmed absentee for the Gunners, as he continues his recovery from a severe ACL injury incurred at the beginning of the campaign.

PlayerReason
Jurrien Timber ACL Injury

2️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Villa’s form has stuttered noticeably of late, with Unai Emery’s men having won just one of their last five Premier League games and conceded a worrying 12 goals during this sequence. This run has also included a 4-0 home defeat to Spurs and a 4-1 loss to Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium, while they blew a two-goal lead against Brentford last time out and had to settle for a 3-3 draw. The Villains have now slumped to fifth in the EPL table, having taken 17 points from the previous 30 available to them and started to showcase significant vulnerability in the defensive third.

Last 5 Games
Aston Villa 3
Brentford 3
06.04.24
Premier League
Man City 4
Aston Villa 1
03.04.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 2
Wolves 0
30.03.24
Premier League
West Ham 1
Aston Villa 1
17.03.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 4
Ajax 0
14.03.24
UEFA Europa League

Villa will be without the influential Douglas Luiz against the Gunners, with the Brazilian midfielder suspended after accumulating 10 yellow cards. Full-back Matty Cash will also miss out with a hamstring injury, while Unai Emery recently revealed that Jacob Ramsey won’t play again this season as he struggles with a foot injury. He joins Tyrone Mings, Emiliano Buendia and Boubacar Kamara (all ACL injuries) as long-term absentees who won’t return until the 2024/25 campaign.

PlayerReason
Jacob Ramsey Foot Injury
Douglas Luiz Suspended
Boubacar Kamara Knee Injury
Tyrone Mings ACL Injury
Emiliano Buendia ACL Injury
Matty Cash Hamstring Injury

👕 Arsenal vs Aston Villa - Potential Lineups

Pos. Arsenal
4-3-3
Aston Villa
4-4-2
Pos.
Goalkeeper D. Raya E. Martinez Goalkeeper
Right Back B. White E. Konsa Right Back
Centre Back W. Saliba D. Carlos Centre Back
Centre Back Gabriel P. Torres Centre Back
Left Back T. Tomiyasu A. Moreno Left Back
Midfielder M. Ødegaard L. Bailey Right Midfielder
Midfielder D. Rice Y. Tielemans Central Midfielder
Midfielder E. Smith-Rowe J. McGinn Central Midfielder
Wide Forward B. Saka M. Rogers Left Midfielder
Striker K. Havertz M. Diaby Striker
Wide Forward L. Trossard O. Watkins Striker

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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