Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Arsenal vs Aston Villa EPL Prediction

Of course, Unai Emery’s charges defeated the Gunners 1-0 at Villa Park in the reverse fixture on December 9th, courtesy of John McGinn’s early goal. However, Arsenal dominated for extended periods in the Midlands, accumulating an xG of 1.72 and creating several high-quality chances in front of goal. Villa only produced a collective xG of 0.63 and struggled after taking an early lead.

Interestingly, Arsenal and Villa are among the most efficient Premier League teams in the attacking third. In fact, they’ve outperformed their collective xG values of 62.3 and 54.9 by +12.7 and +11.1 goals respectively, while Villa’s goals-per-shot ratio of 0.13 remains the joint-highest in the league. However, Arsenal’s is only marginally lower at 0.12, with the Gunners scoring 75 EPL goals from just 165 shots on target.

Although neither side requires much of an invitation to find the back of the net, Arsenal are far superior from a defensive perspective. In fact, the Gunners have conceded just 24 goals so far in the 2023/24 campaign, compared to the 49 shipped by Villa both home and away. Mikel Arteta’s men have also won 51.9% of their tackles and conceded just five set-piece goals in the top flight.

Arsenal have also scored a league-high 18 goals from corners and free-kicks this season while defending set pieces remains a significant weakness for the Villains. This could prove crucial in a match that’s likely to be relatively tight and keenly contested, and I’m tipping the Gunners to record a potentially pivotal win in the title race.

💯 Arsenal vs Aston Villa EPL Match Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites are covering a huge range of markets ahead of the clash between Arsenal and Aston Villa. These include the match winner, both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored in the game. Here’s my take on these markets and their current odds.

🏅 Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Match Winner

Wagering on the match winner remains the most popular football betting market, with Arsenal priced at around 1.25 to defeat Villa. These odds imply an 80% probability of a home win. Conversely, you can back Villa to spring a surprise in North London at an average price of 9.10, suggesting that they have just a 10.98% chance of emerging victorious in the capital.

Team
Arsenal to Win	1.25	1.29	1.24	1.24	1.33
Aston Villa to Win	9.50	9.00	9.10	9.10	10.00
Draw	5.50	5.75	5.75	5.75	6.00

⚽ Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Both Teams To Score

While both teams have only scored in 45% of Arsenal’s matches in 2023/24, this increases to 60% for the Gunners’ home games. Arteta’s men have kept five clean sheets at the Emirates and failed to score just once (against West Ham on December 28th). Both sides have found the net in 69% of Aston Villa’s away matches this season, with the Midlands club keeping three clean sheets and drawing three blanks on the road.

Yes/No
Yes	1.83	1.85	1.82	1.82	1.83
No	1.87	1.91	1.85	1.85	1.91

🥅 Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Arsenal have contested 15 home matches in the 2023/24 Premier League so far, which have yielded 51 goals at a rate of 3.40 per game. The Gunners have scored 38 of these goals at a rate of 2.53 per 90 minutes. Although Villa’s 16 away matches have produced 53 goals at a similar rate of 3.31 per 90, they’ve conceded 27 of these (at 1.68 per game) and have a negative goal difference of -1 on the road.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.44	1.48	1.43	1.44	1.48
Under 2.5 Goals	2.50	2.60	2.58	2.58	2.60

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

Arsenal are now unbeaten in 11 Premier League matches since the turn of the year, winning 10 of these fixtures and scoring 38 goals at a rate of 3.45 per 90 minutes. They’ve only shipped four goals during this sequence too, while the Gunners have kept three successive clean sheets and haven’t conceded since Yoane Wissa scored at the Emirates in Brentford’s 2-1 defeat at the Emirates on March 9th. Overall, the Gunners have taken 31 points from the 33 available to them in 2024, outperforming both Manchester City (30 points) and Liverpool (29 points) this calendar year.

While Bukayo Saka was left limping at the end of Arsenal’s thrilling Champions League clash against Bayern in midweek, he’s widely expected to be fit for the visit of Aston Villa. Otherwise, Dutch utility player Jurrien Timber remains the only confirmed absentee for the Gunners, as he continues his recovery from a severe ACL injury incurred at the beginning of the campaign.

2️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Villa’s form has stuttered noticeably of late, with Unai Emery’s men having won just one of their last five Premier League games and conceded a worrying 12 goals during this sequence. This run has also included a 4-0 home defeat to Spurs and a 4-1 loss to Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium, while they blew a two-goal lead against Brentford last time out and had to settle for a 3-3 draw. The Villains have now slumped to fifth in the EPL table, having taken 17 points from the previous 30 available to them and started to showcase significant vulnerability in the defensive third.

Villa will be without the influential Douglas Luiz against the Gunners, with the Brazilian midfielder suspended after accumulating 10 yellow cards. Full-back Matty Cash will also miss out with a hamstring injury, while Unai Emery recently revealed that Jacob Ramsey won’t play again this season as he struggles with a foot injury. He joins Tyrone Mings, Emiliano Buendia and Boubacar Kamara (all ACL injuries) as long-term absentees who won’t return until the 2024/25 campaign.

👕 Arsenal vs Aston Villa - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.