Tournament | UEFA Champions League |
Timetable | 17:45 GMT 8 Nov 23 |
Prediction | Real Sociedad To Win! |
Odds | 1.75 |
Bookmaker | betway |
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Benfica have been one of the poorest sides in this season’s Champions League, losing all three of their three Group D games and failing to score even a single goal. Make no mistake; a fourth consecutive defeat here would see Benfica eliminated from the competition, and this would be remarkable for a side that impressed while reaching the the UCL quarterfinals last season. As for Sociedad, they top the group with seven points out of nine, while they defeated Benfica 1-0 at the iconic Estádio da Luz in gameweek three and could qualify for the knockout stages with another three points. To see who I think will win here, check out my detailed prediction and football betting guide below!
🏆 Real Sociedad v Benfica UCL Prediction
Sociedad’s performance this season will have surprised many, especially as the team hasn’t previously progressed beyond the semi-finals of a major UEFA tournament. The reverse is true for Benfica, whose disastrous UCL campaign is at odds with the side’s history in the tournament and immense pedigree as two-time UCL winners.
The Eagles have certainly struggled in this season’s tournament, registering a competition-low of 2.2 expected goals during their three group stage matches. They’ve also executed just 18.00 shot-creating actions per 90, despite averaging 49.3% possession and boasting some technically proficient midfielders. This highlights a lack of creativity and Benfica’s failure to translate possession into clear-cut chances, while they’ll face a Real Sociedad side that has won an impressive 59.5% of its tackles and 58.7% of its total aerial duels.
Given Sociedad’s defensive organisation and tenacity, I’d expect the Spaniards to comfortably negate Benfica’s possession and pose a threat on the counterattack, especially with the impressive Brais Méndez in midfield. He’s the joint-top scorer in the group stages with three goals (including the winner against Benfica), while the strikes have come from an xG value of just 0.9. So, I’m backing Sociedad to win and Benfica’s goal drought to continue at the Reale Arena.
My Prediction: 🏆 Real Sociedad 2 - 0 Benfica ⚽
💯 Real Sociedad v Benfica UCL Match Odds
Once you’ve selected your preferred sportsbook from Betinireland’s range of comprehensive bookmaker reviews, you can browse a huge range of Real Sociedad v Benfica betting markets. Here’s a look at the most popular markets and their ante post odds!
Real Sociedad v Benfica: Match Winner
The market-leading UCL betting sites have all published their ante post match winner odds here, with Sociedad the overt favourites to win. But what price can get the La Liga side to prevail, and is there value in backing Benfica to win? Interested in other bookmakers, visit our page on the best betting sites for more information.
Team | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Sociedad to Win | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.72 | 1.70 | 1.75 |
Benfica to Win | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.70 | 5.00 | 4.75 |
Draw | 3.60 | 3.75 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
⚽ Real Sociedad v Benfica: Both Teams To Score
While Benfica have scored in 13 of their 16 matches across all competitions, each of the blanks that they’ve drawn have come in the UEFA Champions League. As for Sociedad, they’re only averaging 1.56 goals per game across their 16 matches this season, but despite this, they’ve only failed to score in one game so far and have registered in each of their three UCL encounters.
Yes/No | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1.87 | 1.91 | 1.84 | 1.91 | 1.83 |
No | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.83 | 1.83 |
🥅 Real Sociedad v Benfica: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The over/under for total goals is particularly interesting here, especially around the popular 2.5 goals betting line. After all, these sides have contested 32 matches in all competitions to date, and these contests have yielded 83 goals at a rate of 2.59 per game. Both sides have also struggled for goals at times during the season, so it’s not surprising that the odds imply a slightly higher probability of under 2.5 goals being scored in this encounter.
Under/Over | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 2.5 Goals | 1.95 | 2.00 | 1.92 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
Under 2.5 Goals | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.79 | 1.80 | 1.73 |
✔️ Real Sociedad v Benfica - Betting Tips
Whether you have a free bet that you’d like to deploy or simply want to wager some of your bankrolls on the clash between Sociedad and Benfica, it’s important to navigate the available markets with care and a strategic mindset. So, here are some betting tips to help you achieve this objective! Our guide on matched betting would be of great aid when making informed betting desicions.
- Tip 1: Back Real Sociedad to Win With Under 2.5 Goals: Benfica’s lack of creativity and goals has become a huge problem at the elite level, while this issue will be amplified by Sociedad’s strong and aggressive defence. Of course, the Spanish side are also far from prolific in the attacking third with an average of 1.56 goals per game in 2023/24, so I think there’s huge value in backing Real Sociedad to win with under 2.5 goals scored at a competitive price of 3.80 with TonyBet.
- Tip 2: Back Brais Mendez to Score at Any Time: While midfielder Brais Mendez has four goals in 11 games this season, he has registered in every UCL match so far and boasts three goals in just three appearances. These goals have come from just five shots on target and an xG value of 0.9 too, while he scored the winner against Benfica in Lisbon in gameweek three. So, get on Mendez as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 3.60 with Betway.
- Tip 3: Back Sociedad to Win to Nil: If you’re looking for additional ways to create value when engaging in match betting, you could also consider backing Sociedad to win to nil at a noticeably extended price of 2.88 with LegendPlay. Remember, it’s not just Benfica’s lack of goals that’s of concern here, it’s their failure to create chances and convert healthy average possession and a front-foot playing style into shot-creating actions.
1️⃣ Real Sociedad Update
Sociedad’s form has been slightly patchy of late, with three wins in six across all competitions and just five goals scored during this sequence. However, they remain well organised and enduringly tough to beat, as despite only boasting a 50% win rate in 2023/24 so far, Imanol Alguacil’s side have been beaten on just three occasions overall. They have only lost one out of eight home games this season too (against Barcelona last weekend), so Benfica will have their work cut out to get anything at the Reale Arena.
Last 5 Games | |
---|---|
Real Sociedad 0 Barcelona 1 | 04.11.23 La Liga |
Bunol 0 Real Sociedad 1 | 01.11.23 Copa del Rey |
Rayo Vallecano 2 Real Sociedad 2 | 29.10.23 La Liga |
Benfica 0 Real Sociedad 1 | 24.10.23 Champions League |
Real Sociedad 1 Mallorca 0 | 21.10.23 La Liga |
Once again, Real Sociedad have a virtually fully fit quad to choose from ahead of Benfica’s visit. In fact, their 28-year-old winger Martín Merquelanz remains the only absentee, as he continues to struggle with a knee injury and has been out since September 11th. Otherwise, the squad is fit and will be raring to go in Lisbon!
Player | Reason |
---|---|
Martín Merquelanz | Knee Injury |
2️⃣ Benfica Update
There’s a stark contrast between Benfica’s domestic and continental form, as while the Eagles have won 11 and lost just one of 13 matches in their homeland and scored 29 goals during this run, they’ve been defeated in all three Champions League games and have yet to register a single goal. They’ve only averaged 4.00 shots on target per 90 during their Group D matches to date, while their tally of just 2.2 expected goals in the lowest in the whole competition. They’ll need to improve on this quickly if they’re to salvage their European dream, as even Europa League qualification could prove beyond them if they lose again in San Sebastián.
Last 5 Games | |
---|---|
Chaves 0 Benfica 2 | 04.11.23 Primeira Liga |
Arouca0 Benfica2 | 31.10.23 Taca da Liga |
Benfica 1 Casa Pia 0 | 28.10.23 Primeira Liga |
Benfica 0 Real Sociedad 1 | 24.10.23 Champions League |
Lusitania 1 Benfica 4 | 20.10.23 Taca de Portugal |
Benfica have winger Angel Di Maria back in contention after a thigh injury, although Danish right back Alexander Bah is still absent with a foot injury. Orkun Kökçü (foot) and David Neres (meniscus) are also unavailable, while left back Juan Bernat may miss out with an adductor injury. However, striker Petar Musa could return after a bout of tonsillitis.
Player | Reason |
---|---|
Orkun Kökçü | Foot Injury |
Alexander Bah | Foot Injury |
Juan Bernat | Adductor Injury |
David Neres | Meniscus Injury |
👕 Real Sociedad vs Benfica - Potential Lineups
Pos. | Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1 | Benfica 4-2-3-1 | Pos. |
---|---|---|---|
Goalkeeper | A. Remiro | A. Trubin | Goalkeeper |
Right Back | H. Traoré | F. Aursnes | Right Back |
Centre Back | I. Zubeldia | A. Silva | Centre Back |
Centre Back | R. Le Normand | N. Otamendi | Centre Back |
Left Back | A. Muñoz | D. Jurásek | Left Back |
Midfielder | B. Méndez | F. Luis | Midfielder |
Midfielder | M. Zubimendi | Chiquinho | Midfielder |
Midfielder | M. Merino | R. Silva | Midfielder |
Wide Forward | T. Kubo | A. Di Maria | Wide Forward |
Striker | M. Oyarzabal | P. Musa | Striker |
Wide Forward | A. Barrenetxea | J. Mário | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.