Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 20:00 GMT 6th Mar 24 |
| Prediction | Real Madrid To Win! |
| Odds | 1.60 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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Real Madrid hold a slender 1-0 lead ahead of the second leg of their round of 16 clash against RB Leipzig, as they continue their pursuit of a record-extending 15th Champions League crown. Brahim Diaz’s superb curling winner put Los Blancos in control of the tie, although the first leg was an incredibly even contest that saw Leipzig more than hold their own. Still, Madrid are the favourites to complete the job in the Bernabéu and qualify for the last eight, having only failed to progress beyond the second round three times in the last 14 years. After my prediction below, let's take a look at the latest odds being offered by the best betting sites.
🏆 Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig Prediction
This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams in the UCL, and Real Madrid’s 483rd match in Europe’s premier club competition. Conversely, Leipzig have only contested 45 Champions League matches since their formation in 2009 and only embarked on their first-ever UCL campaign in 2017/18.
The first leg in Leipzig saw the two sides have 50-50 possession, while Real Madrid only attempted one more shot at goal (15 as opposed to 14). However, Marco Rose’s tenacious and energetic side managed to find the target with nine of their attempts (compared to just three for Madrid), while playing superbly in transition and creating an xG of 1.37.
This is Leipzig’s modus operandi, of course, with the Bundesliga side having produced the most shots from counter-attacks in this season’s Champions League and won an impressive 79 tackles (and 17 in the attacking third). They’ve also completed 347 ball recoveries and will be happy to allow Madrid a little more of the ball in Spain as they look to hit them on the break.
This may suit Madrid, of course, who average 36.71 shot-creating actions per 90 in the UCL and boast three of the top individual creators in Luka Modric, Jude Bellingham and Toni Kroos. They also have immense pedigree and experience in the UCL, and while I expect Leipzig to score and threaten throughout, Los Blancos should be enough to record a crucial win here.
My Prediction: 🏆 Real Madrid 2 – 1 RB Leipzig ⚽
💯 Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig Odds
This is a deceptively tough match to call, with both teams extremely well-organised and dangerous in transition. However, the most popular markets remain the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on total goals scored, but how are the potential outcomes being priced by Betinireland’s recommended sportsbooks?
🏅 Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: Match Winner
Despite the even nature of the first leg between these two sides, Real Madrid are priced at around 1.55 to prevail in the Bernabéu. These odds imply a 64.51% probability of a home win. As for RB Leipzig, they can be backed at an average price of 5.00, so they have just a 20.00% chance of being victorious. Madrid are also favourites in the tie, with bookies offering odds of 1.13 on them to qualify for the quarterfinals.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to Win | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.52 | 1.60 | 1.57 |
| RB Leipzig to Win | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.90 | 5.50 | 5.00 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 4.50 |
⚽ Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Both teams have scored in seven of Real Madrid’s 16 home matches in all competitions this season (44.00%), with Los Blancos keeping nine clean sheets and failing to score just once (against Rayo Vallecano on November 5th). Both sides have found the net in 12 of Leipzig’s 17 matches on the road (70.58%), with the Bundesliga outfit keeping just three clean sheets and drawing two blanks.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 | 1.60 | 1.49 | 1.53 | 1.53 |
| No | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.32 | 2.20 | 2.38 |
🥅 Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Madrid’s 16 home matches this season have also yielded a total of 48 goals, at a rate of exactly 3.00 per game. Interestingly, Leipzig’s 17 games on the road have produced an impressive 60 goals (at a rate of 3.52 per 90), with Marco Rose’s men scoring 32 times and conceding on 28 occasions.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.43 | 2.45 | 2.50 |
✔️ Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig - Betting Tips
Madrid’s 1-0 first leg win means that RB Leipzig may have to chase the game at some point in Spain, which doesn’t necessarily suit their natural counter-attacking style. But what other insights should impact your choice of betting markets here?
- Tip 1: Back Madrid to Win and Both Teams to Score: Real Madrid have won 14 of their 16 home matches this season, while they’ve drawn twice and remain unbeaten in front of their fans. They’re also unbeaten in 10 home UCL matches since April 2022, when Chelsea left the Bernabéu with a 3-2 victory. However, Leipzig are a potent counter-attacking force and have found the net in all but two of their away matches this season, so get on Los Blancos to win and both teams to score at a price of 2.90 with Mr Mega Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Madrid to Win by a Single Goal: The first leg in Leipzig was incredibly close and keenly contested, with Madrid only edging the game courtesy of a superb goal by midfielder Brahim Diaz. There’s no reason to believe that the second leg will be significantly different, especially as six of Madrid’s 14 home wins this season have also been by a single goal. Given this and Leipzig’s potent attack, I think there’s value in backing Madrid to win by just a single goal at the competitive price of 4.00 with LegendPlay.
- Tip 3: Back There to be Over 11.5 Shots on Target: If you want to make use of one of your available free bets, you could also wager on there to be over 11.5 shots on target during the second leg. There were 12 attempts on target during the first leg, while Madrid and Leipzig averaged 6.43 and 5.29 shots on target per 90 respectively in this season’s UCL. Leipzig also need to overturn a first-leg deficit to have any chance of winning the tie and will need to press the game at some point, while you can get on this market at a price of 2.65 with 1Bet Sports.
1️⃣ Real Madrid Update
The Santiago Bernabéu is always a fortress for Madrid, and their record of 14 wins and two draws from 16 home matches this season proves that the 2023/24 campaign is no exception to this rule. This impressive record has helped Los Blancos to move six points clear of Girona at the top of La Liga, while they’re eight points clear of bitter rivals and defending champions Barcelona. Madrid have only lost one of their last 30 games in all competitions, while they should be boosted by the return of Jude Bellingham for the second leg. The young Englishman has scored four goals and provided three assists in just 449 minutes of UCL action this season, and averaged 7.03 shot-creating actions per 90.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid 1 Sevilla 0 | 25.02.24 La Liga |
| Rayo Vallecano 1 Real Madrid 1 | 18.02.24 La Liga |
| RB Leipzig 0 Real Madrid 1 | 13.02.24 UEFA Champions League |
| Real Madrid 4 Girona 0 | 10.02.24 La Liga |
| Real Madrid 1 Atletico Madrid 1 | 04.02.24 La Liga |
While Bellingham isn’t guaranteed to start in Madrid, he’s expected to have recovered from an ankle sprain in time for Leipzig’s visit. Joselu (ankle injury) will also be assessed ahead of the second leg clash, but the match is likely to come too soon for defender Eder Militao as he completes his recovery from a cruciate ligament tear. David Alaba and Thibaut Courtois (both cruciate ligament tears) remain long-term absentees for Los Blancos.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Jude Bellingham | Ankle Sprain |
| Joselu | Ankle Injury |
| Eder Militao | Cruciate Ligament Tear |
| David Alaba | Cruciate Ligament Tear |
| Thibaut Courtois | Cruciate Ligament Tear |
2️⃣ RB Leipzig Update
While Leipzig remain fifth in the Bundesliga, the side have won just two of their eight matches since the German winter break. They’ve also lost five times during this sequence, including the first-leg defeat to Madrid and successive Bundesliga losses against Eintracht Frankfurt, Bayern Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart. The good news is that Leipzig were highly competitive against both Madrid and Bayern Munich last time out, while they retain one of the UCL’s leading marksmen in Lois Openda. The Belgian has already hit four Champions League goals for Leipzig this season, from just 24 attempts and an xG of just 3.2.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Bayern 2 RB Leipzig 1 | 24.02.24 Bundesliga |
| RB Leipzig 2 Mönchengladbach 0 | 17.02.24 Bundesliga |
| RB Leipzig 0 Real Madrid 1 | 13.02.24 Champions League |
| Augsburg 2 RB Leipzig 2 | 10.02.24 Bundesliga |
| RB Leipzig 2 Union Berlin 0 | 04.02.24 Bundesliga |
Forward Yussuf Poulsen could miss out for Leipzig in Madrid, having picked up a knock in the recent match against Bayern. Keeper Péter Gulácsi has definitely been ruled out with an abdominal injury, while defender Lukas Klostermann has a hip injury that will keep him out of contention until mid-March. While Xaver Schlager and Tim Kohler are currently serving domestic bans, they’ll both be available to face Madrid in Spain.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Yussuf Poulsen | Knock |
| Péter Gulácsi | Abdominal Injury |
| Lukas Klostermann | Hip Injury |
👕 Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Real Madrid 4-3-1-2 | RB Leipzig 4-2-2-2 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | A. Lunin | J. Blaswich | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | L. Vazquez | B. Henrichs | Right Back |
| Centre Back | Nacho | M. Simakan | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | A. Rudiger | W. Orban | Centre Back |
| Left Back | F. Mendy | D. Raum | Left Back |
| Midfielder | F. Valverde | A. Haidara | Defensive Midfielder |
| Midfielder | A. Tchouaméni | X. Schlager | Defensive Midfielder |
| Midfielder | T. Kroos | D. Olmo | Attacking Midfielder |
| Attacking Midfielder | J. Bellingham | X. Simons | Attacking Midfielder |
| Striker | Rodrygo | B. Sesko | Striker |
| Striker | V. Junior | L. Openda | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
