RB Leipzig v Real Madrid: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 13th Feb 24
PredictionReal Madrid to Win!
Odds2.10
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
Real Madrid to Win!
The best odds
Odds : 2.10
Bet €100 and win €210 if Real Madrid win.
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T&C
Bet
Odds : 2.06
Bet €100 and win €206 if Real Madrid win.
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€10
T&C
Bet
Odds : 2.05
Bet €100 and win €205 if Real Madrid win.
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T&C
Bet

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The Champions League returns on February 13th, when the long-awaited round of 16 finally gets underway. The competition will restart with a bang too, as 14-time winners Real Madrid head to Germany for the first leg of their tie with RB Leipzig. Los Blancos progressed seamlessly through the group stage, while they appear to have reached the top of the La Liga without yet getting out of third gear. However, Marco Rose’s Leipzig side remain as tenacious and unpredictable as ever, and will be desperate to eke out a first leg lead to take to the Bernabéu. But which side will win here, and what do the best betting sites have to say?

🏆 RB Leipzig v Real Madrid Prediction UCL Prediction

Leipzig and Madrid have met just twice in the history of the Champions League, interestingly during the 2022/23 campaign. Los Blancos secured a comfortable 2-0 win over their Bundesliga rivals on matchday two of the group stage, before Leipzig recorded a thrilling 3-2 victory in the return match nearly six weeks later.

This years’ campaign has seen Madrid coast through UCL Group C, winning all six of their matches and plundering 16 goals in the process. Alongside Manchester City, they’ve certainly been the standout side from an attacking perspective, with only Pep Guardiola’s team bettering their tournament xG of 15.00.

Madrid have also recorded 38.17 shot-creating actions per 90, once again second only to Man City. Interestingly, Luka Modric (8.05), Jude Bellingham (7.03) and Toni Kroos (6.88) have produced the most shot-creating actions per 90 among all players, and Leipzig will have to work hard to stop Madrid from scoring in the first leg.

However, Leipzig are always combative and competitive, while they’ve won an impressive 67 tackles and completed 293 ball recoveries in this season’s Champions League to date. So, I expect a close and keenly contested game at the Red Bull Arena, and one that may well see Real Madrid escape with a narrow first leg lead.

My Prediction: 🏆 RB Leipzig 1 – 2 Real Madrid ⚽

💯 RB Leipzig v Real Madrid UCL Match Odds

Betiton-free-bet-bannerBetiton-free-bet-banner

You can bet on RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid at any of the sites featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews. These sportsbooks will offer popular markets such as the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on the total number of goals scored in the game. But how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 RB Leipzig v Real Madrid: Match Winner

Unsurprisingly, Los Blancos are the favourites to defeat RB Leipzig in the first leg of their UCL clash. In fact, you can back Madrid to win at an average price of 2.05, which implies a 48.78% probability of an away victory. As for Leipzig, they’re priced at around 3.00 to prevail, so the Bundesliga outfit has a 33.33% chance of winning!

Team
1bet-logo1bet-logo
betway-logobetway-logo
Betiton-logoBetiton-logo
Mr-Mega-logoMr-Mega-logo
LegendPlay-logoLegendPlay-logo
RB Leipzig to Win3.003.103.103.103.00
Real Madrid to Win2.052.052.062.052.10
Draw3.503.753.603.603.60

⚽ RB Leipzig v Real Madrid Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 20 of Leipzig’s 29 matches in all competitions this season (68.96%), with the German outfit keeping seven clean sheets and failing to score on four occasions. As for Madrid, both sides have found the net in 20 of their 33 matches (60.60%), with Carlo Ancelotti’s men keeping an impressive 13 clean sheets and failing to score only once.

Yes/No
1bet-logo1bet-logo
betway-logobetway-logo
Betiton-logoBetiton-logo
Mr-Mega-logoMr-Mega-logo
LegendPlay-logoLegendPlay-logo
Yes1.501.551.481.551.50
No2.402.402.412.502.50

🥅 RB Leipzig v Real Madrid: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Between them, RB Leipzig and Real Madrid have contested 62 matches in all competitions this season. These encounters have yielded an impressive 211 goals at a rate of 3.40 per game, so it’s not surprising that the pre-match odds heavily favour more than 2.5 goals being scored in the first leg.

Under/Over
1bet-logo1bet-logo
betway-logobetway-logo
Betiton-logoBetiton-logo
Mr-Mega-logoMr-Mega-logo
LegendPlay-logoLegendPlay-logo
Over 2.5 Goals1.601.571.571.621.57
Under 2.5 Goals2.252.252.212.252.25

✔️ RB Leipzig v Real Madrid - Betting Tips

While you may usually consider a matched betting strategy at this stage of the Champions League, Madrid’s superiority means that this may not be the best use of your free bets. Instead, I’ve prepared some alternative betting tips to help you make the most of your bankroll!

  • Tip 1: Back Real Madrid and Both Teams to Score: With both teams having scored at a rate of more than 2.00 goals per game this season, it’s no surprise that the odds favour BTTS at the Red Bull Arena. However, there’s little value in backing this outcome outright, so consider creating a combination bet that picks Madrid to win and sides to score at a price of 3.60 with Betway. After all, Madrid have only lost twice in all competitions this season, while only Rayo Vallecano have stopped Los Blancos from scoring through 2023/24.
  • Tip 2: Back Real Madrid to Win by the Odd Goal: While Madrid tend to score every time they take to the field, it seems as though they have yet to hit top gear in 2023/24. As a result, four of their six group stage wins were achieved by just a single goal, while Manchester City are the only team to defeat Leipzig by more than a single goal at the Red Bull Arena this season. So, get on Los Blancos to win by a single goal at a price of 4.33 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Real Madrid and the Draw with a Double Chance Bet: Interestingly, the draw can be backed at around 3.50 here, implying a 28.57% probability of the first leg ending in a tie. Given this and the fact that only Manchester City, Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen have beaten Leipzig at the Red Bull Arena in 2023/24, you may want to consider covering two match outcomes with a ‘Double Chance’ wager. You can get on this by backing a Madrid win and the draw at a price of 4.33 with 1Bet Sports.

1️⃣ RB Leipzig Update

Since their last UCL match against Young Boys on December 13th (this resulted in a 2-1 victory), RB Leipzig have won just two of their six competitive matches. They’ve also triumphed only once in their last five outings (all in the Bundesliga), with this sequence including three successive defeats against Eintracht Frankfurt, Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart. Now fifth in the German top flight, Leipzig have also conceded 14 goals in their previous six matches, which will be a huge concern given the potency and creativity of Madrid’s offensive players. The good news is that Leipzig are virtually at full strength ahead of the first leg.

Last 5 Games
RB Leipzig 2
Union Berlin 0
04.02.24
German Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 5
RB Leipzig 2
27.01.24
German Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 2
Bayer Leverkusen 3
20.01.24
German Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 0
Eintracht Frankfurt 1
13.01.24
German Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 1
RB Leipzig 1
19.12.23
German Bundesliga

Leipzig will be able to call on striker Yussuf Poulsen for the visit of Madrid, despite him serving a domestic suspension in the DFB-Pokal. The only other potential absentee could be midfielder Amadou Haidara, who has been playing for Mali in the African Cup of Nations. However, Mali were eliminated in the last eight by the Ivory Coast, so Haidara could be available to start next week.

PlayerReason
Amadou Haidara International Duty

2️⃣ Real Madrid Update

Interestingly, Madrid have only lost twice in their last 28 matches since September 20th, while these remain their only defeats in the 2023/24 campaign as a whole. Both were inflicted at city rivals Atletico’s Cívitas Metropolitano stadium too, with Diego Simeone’s men winning 3-1 in La Liga and 4-2 after extra-time in a recent Copa del Rey round of 16 clash. In Jude Bellingham, Madrid arguably boast the outstanding player so far in this season’s UCL too, with the precocious 20-year-old producing four goals, three assists and 7.03 shot-creating actions per 90 in just five appearances to date.

Last 5 Games
Real Madrid 1
Atletico Madrid 1
04.02.24
La Liga
Getafe 0
Real Madrid 2
01.02.24
La Liga
Las Palmas 1
Real Madrid 2
27.01.24
La Liga
Real Madrid 3
Almeria 2
21.01.24
Serie A
Atletico Madrid 4
Real Madrid 2
18.01.24
Copa del Rey

Powerful centre back Antonio Rudiger remains a doubt for the trip to Leipzig, as he continues to struggle with a hamstring strain. Eder Militao and keeper Thibaut Courtois (both cruciate ligament tears) remain sidelined until the second half of March at least, while seasoned centre back David Alaba has a similar injury and won’t play again in 2023/24.

PlayerReason
Antonio Rudiger Hamstring Strain
Eder Militao Cruciate Ligament Tear
Thibaut Courtois Cruciate Ligament Tear
David Alaba Cruciate Ligament Tear

👕 RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid - Potential Lineups

Pos. RB Leipzig
4-2-2-2
Real Madrid
4-3-1-2
Pos.
Goalkeeper P. Gulácsi A. Lunin Goalkeeper
Right Back B. Henrichs L. Vázquez Right Back
Centre Back L. Klostermann D. Carvajal Centre Back
Centre Back W. Orban Nacho Centre Back
Left Back D. Raum F. Mendy Left Back
Defensive Midfielder K. Kampl F. Valverde Midfielder
Defensive Midfielder X. Schlager L. Modric Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder D. Olmo T. Kroos Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder X. Simons J. Bellingham Attacking Midfielder
Striker L. Openda Rodrygo Striker
Striker B. Sesko Vinicius Junior Striker

Real Madrid to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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