Napoli vs AC Milan - UEFA Champions League Prediction with Odds, Betting Tips and Free Bet Offers

napoli-vs-milan-prediction napoli-vs-milan-prediction
TournamentUEFA Champions League
TimetableTuesday 18th of April at 20:00 GMT
PredictionNapoli to Win!
OddsNapoli to Win @ 1.86
BookmakerPalmslots Sport
The best odds
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Odds : 1.86
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Odds : 1.75
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Odds : 1.80
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Of all the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League quarterfinals, the Napoli vs AC Milan tie is arguably the most evenly poised. To this end, Milan hold a narrow, 1-0 advantage ahead of the second leg, courtesy of a breakaway goal by Alerian midfielder Ismael Bennacer at the San Siro.

The two sides will contest the second leg at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Tuesday 18th April, with the early Napoli vs Milan odds making the home side the favourites to win.

However, while Napoli have only lost two home games in all competitions this season, the latter defeat was administered by Milan when they thrashed ‘The Little Donkeys’ 4-0 at the beginning of April. This game saw Milan deliver a counterattacking masterclass in Naples, with Rafael Leao (who scored twice) and Brahim Diaz particularly influential.

But can Milan produce yet another match-winning performance in Naples, or will the home side recover their best form and reach their first ever Champions League semi-final? Read the following Napoli vs AC Milan prediction and betting guide to find out more!

💯 Napoli vs AC Milan Champions League Odds

I’ll start by reviewing the very latest Napoli vs Milan betting odds. The market leading betting sites have already published their ante post moneyline odds ahead of the second leg, with Napoli emerging as the early favourites to prevail at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

🏆 Napoli vs AC Milan Odds: Match Winner

Napoli to Win1.831.861.751.751.801.831.83
Milan to Win4.504.334.704.504.804.504.60
Draw3.503.403.603.503.503.403.40

⚽ Napoli vs Milan Odds: Both Teams to Score

The full range of Napoli vs Milan quarter finals odds and betting markets includes a number of even-money wagers too. One such bet type enables you to wager on whether or not both sides will score at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, with this offering an intriguing market given the evenly poised nature of the tie.

Yes1.951.851.901.871.951.952.00
No1.801.861.871.831.801.751.73

🥅 Napoli vs Milan Odds: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Totals betting also unlocks some even money markets, as you can wager on whether there will be over or under 2.5 goals scored in the Napoli vs Milan second leg clash. Interestingly, the 116 matches played in the 2022/23 iteration of the tournament have so far produced 350 goals at 3.02 per game, while 380 goals were scored in 125 matches at a rate of 3.04 per game in the 2021/22 campaign.

Over 2.5 Goals2.052.122.052.002.102.102.10
Under 2.5 Goals1.701.731.771.731.731.671.67

🏅 Napoli Champions League Quarterfinal Leg 2 Preview

Despite being in superb form for much of the season, there’s no doubt that Napoli have looked a little less assured in recent weeks. First came the stunning 4-0 reversal at home to Milan in Serie A, as the defending champions ruthlessly exploited Napoli’s high press and defensive line with waves of aggressive counter attacking.

The Rossoneri then edged the first leg of the UCL quarterfinal at the San Siro too, delivering a similarly slick and effective performance in front of their own fans. However, Stefano Pioli’s men were a little more measured in their approach this time around, due in part to Napoli’s electric start and the relentless pressure that they applied in the opening quarter.

The good news for Napoli is that they remain on the cusp of their first Serie A title for 33 years, winning 2-1 at Leece last time out to open up a 16-point lead at the top with just nine games to play. So, four more wins will be enough to lift the Scudetto in 2022/23, while Napoli’s win percentage of 77.78% in this season’s Champions League will give them hope of overcoming Milan in the second leg of the quarterfinal clash.

The big question that remains is whether Napoli’s talismanic striker Victor Osimhen will be fit for the second leg, after the Nigerian missed out with a torn abductor muscle in Milan. The general consensus is that Osimhen will have recovered in time for the second leg, although Giovanni Simeone (bicep) and midfielder Gianluca Gaetano (illness) may well miss out. Influential defender Min-jae Kim is also suspended after collecting a booking in Milan, while Frank Anguissa’s late red card in the first leg will rule him out of contention too.

📰 Latest Napoli Champions League News

⚡ AC Milan Champions League Quarterfinal Leg 2 Preview

The eye catching nature of Milan’s recent league win in Naples and the sparkling individual performances of Rafael Leão and Brahim Diaz will have frustrated many Rossoneri fans, who have watched their side struggle for consistency in defence of their Serie A title. This has left Milan scrapping for a Champions League spot in fourth, a whopping 22 points behind their UCL quarterfinal opponents.

Of course, lifting the Champions League (which is something that Milan have done seven times in their illustrious history) would also secure direct qualification into next years’ tournament, while it remains the Rossoneri’s only remaining chance of winning a trophy after a round of 16 Coppa Italia exit and a Supercoppa Italiana defeat to bitter city rivals Inter in January.

As for Milan’s European campaign in 2022/23, this has been steady rather than spectacular, with the side initially qualifying from a challenging Group E in second place behind Chelsea. Then came another EPL side in the round of 16, as Spurs were dispatched 1-0 on aggregate thanks to Brahim Diaz’s solitary goal in the first leg at the San Siro. Interestingly, Milan will take an identical lead into the second leg of their quarterfinal tie against Napoli, and will hope for a similarly organized and efficient display in Naples.

Unlike Napoli, Milan will virtually be at full strength ahead of the second leg. Currently, the team’s only absentee is the veteran striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic, with the 41-year-old icon continuing to recover from a persistent muscle injury. He’s unlikely to be fit in time for the second leg, with Oliver Giroud likely to lead the Milan line once again.

📰 Latest Milan Champions League News

🆚 Napoli vs Milan Key Matchups

The second leg of the Napoli vs Milan Champions League 2023 quarterfinal will see the two sides do battle for the third time in just 16 days, so they know each other relatively well at this stage. But what are the key individual battles that are likely to decide the outcome of the match? Here are a few to keep in mind!

1️⃣ Victor Osimhen vs Fikayo Tomori

Milan adopted an organised and compact 4-2-3-1 shape in the first leg, with centre back pairing Fikayo Tomori and Simon Kjær maintaining a strong defensive line throughout. Of course, the side was helped by the enforced absence of Victor Osimhen through injury, but the Nigerian hitman is expected to be fit for the second leg.

This sets up a fascinating duel between Tomori and the powerful Osimhen, with the latter having plundered 25 goals in 29 appearances across all competitions this season. The striker has also forged an excellent understanding with the exciting Georgian winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Napoli undoubtedly missed this relationship in the first leg.

As for the 25-year-old former Chelsea star Tomori, he’ll have to remain focused on his task and try to defend as aggressively as possible against Osimhen. Ideally, he should use his anticipation and ability to read the game to stop Osimhen from receiving the ball into feet, while remaining wary of the striker’s pace and threat in behind the defensive line.

Ultimately, Tomori’s ability to keep Osimhen quiet will have a key bearing on the outcome of the second leg, although he’ll need the help of his teammates and solid defensive organization to deal fully with the forward’s threat.

2️⃣ Mário Rui vs Brahim Diaz

In the two most recent encounters between these two sides, Milan’s on-loan forward Brahim Diaz (who’s registered to play for Real Madrid) has been one of his team’s most potent attacking threats. Certainly, both Diaz and Rafael Leao tormented Napoli in the wide areas during the recent Serie A game, as they looked to target left in behind their opponent’s marauding full backs.

While both Mário Rui and right back Giovanni Di Lorenzo are encouraged to attack at will and provide width high up the pitch, they can often be exposed against rapid switches of play and quick transitions. The 31-year-old Portuguese defender Rui also struggled to get back and cover against the nimble Diaz, and this should once again be a fascinating battle to watch in the second leg.

Of course, Diaz is also known to roam into more central areas, and it was his exquisite turn in the middle of the park that initiated the attack from which Ismael Bennacer eventually fired home the winner in the first leg. Rui will have to be mindful of this too and maintain good lines of communication with his fellow defenders and midfielders throughout.

Napoli often consider attack to be the best form of defence, however, and may ask Rui to press forward at every opportunity and drive Diaz back. This would be a significant risk, especially given the close and precarious nature of the tie and the fact that Diaz has six goals and three assists in 34 appearances so far this season.

3️⃣ Stanislav Lobotka vs Sandro Tonali

In the crucial battle for midfield supremacy, Milan have already been afforded an edge following the late dismissal of Napoli’s tireless Frank Anguissa at the San Siro. The Cameroonians’ strong work ethic and powerful running makes him a key player at both ends of the pitch, while he remains central to the tempo that Napoli maintain in and out of possession.

In his absence, Slovak midfielder Stanislav Lobotka will have to take on extra responsibility in the engine room, while engaging in direct battle with Milan’s talented deep-lying playmaker Sandro Tonali. The 22-year-old is cultured in possession and boasts excellent positional awareness, and he’ll look to find time and space to help launch effective counters for his side.

Lobotka will subsequently have to work hard to deny Tonali space, especially if Napoli are to sustain attacks in the way that they’d like and keep the pressure on their opponents.

Whoever wins this midfield duel will lay a solid foundation for their team to go on and win the game, while Tonali will be particularly keen to make hay in the absence of the formidable Anguissa and stamp his own indelible mark on the second leg.

📈 Napoli vs Milan Head-to-Head Statistics

The quarterfinal first leg saw these old rivals do battle for the first time in official UEFA competition, with this having much to do with the fact that Napoli have only won Serie A twice and therefore struggled to qualify consistently for the Champions League (which is where seven-time UCL winners Milan have regularly plied their trade).

The second leg will also see Napoli and Milan do battle for the 173rd time overall, with the former winning on 51 occasions. Conversely, Milan’s two most recent successes took their total number of wins to 70 in this fixture, while a further 51 matches between these two sides have ended in draws.

Milan’s have now won two of their three matches against Napoli this season, improving their more recent record to 10 wins in 34 games. Napoli have won 13 of these contests in total, while 11 have ended tied. This run of games has also seen Napoli score 47 goals, while Milan have extended their own tally to 45 during the same period.

The really good news for Napoli is that their record since the beginning of the 2014/15 season is noticeably dominant, with Milan having won just six of 20 matches between the two sides. So, if the Little Donkeys can recover mentally from the shock of their two most recent defeats, they’ll fancy their chances of winning the second leg in front of their home fans.

🏆 Napoli vs Milan Prediction – Who Will Win?

Not only is this quarterfinal tie the most evenly poised after the first leg, but it’s also one of the most difficult to predict. Obviously, Napoli are the clear favourites to at least win the second leg given the form and consistency that they’ve showcased in 2022/23, and this is borne out by the ante post bookmaker odds.

However, Milan have played like a side that has Napoli’s number in the two most recent matches, exploiting their opponent’s high defensive line during the 4-0 win at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona and producing a beautifully balanced and defensively resolute performance in the first leg at the San Siro.

To Napoli’s credit, they will continue to flood forward and attack in numbers regardless of their opponents, and this could either be a strength or a weakness depending on how Milan play. However, the return of the talismanic Victor Osimhen will make a big difference, and it’s hard to see Napoli drawing a blank with him in the starting 11.

So, for my Napoli vs Milan quarters prediction, I’m tipping the former to edge their opponents in 90 minutes or extra time, with the returning striker Osimhen likely to make the difference between the two sides.

⚽ My Prediction: Napoli 3 Milan 1 🏆

🔍 Napoli vs Milan Betting Tips

This quarterfinal tie is delicately balanced, and this can make it particularly hard to seek out competitive betting markets that offer genuine value. So, I’ve prepared some insightful Napoli vs Milan betting tips below, so that you can make informed wagering decisions and hopefully see some kind of return on your starting bankroll.

1️⃣ Both Sides to Score at 2.00 with William Hill

Usually at this stage of the Champions League, you’ll find football betting sites offering extended odds on both sides not to score in a particular game. This is typically due to the nature of the remaining teams and their attacking quality, while second legs can be particularly high scoring in instances where one team has to claw back a deficit.

So, despite the fact that all four UCL quarterfinal first legs were won to nil (such games can often be tense affairs), it’s slightly surprising that bookies are pricing both sides not to score as the most likely outcome in the second leg between Napoli and Milan.

The good news is that this creates superior value in backing both teams to score in Naples, while I think this is a far more likely outcome given the attacking quality of Napoli and the space that will be afforded to Milan on the counter attacks as the home side chases the game.

Currently, William Hill are pricing this outcome at 2.00, while it can be backed at average odds of 1.90 with Betinireland’s other recommended sportsbooks.

2️⃣ Over 2.5 Goals Scored at 2.12 with PalmSlots Sports

A similar principle applies to the over/under market for the total goals scored in the game, with the bookies clearly basing their prices on the assumption that under 2.5 goals will be scored in the 90 minutes.

Because of this, however, you can once again unlock genuine value in betting on there being over 2.5 goals scored during the game, with PalmSlots Sports pricing this at 2.12 in the current marketplace.

On balance, I’d expect there to be over 2.5 goals during the 90 minutes, as Napoli look to force the game from the outset and Milan strive to make the most of their chances on the break. In truth, this should suit both sides and their respective playing styles, while an early goal for Milan could break the game open even further.

There’s also a good chance that the second leg could go to extra-time, but any goals scored during this period won’t count towards total or over/under betting.

3️⃣ Napoli to Win By Two Goals at 5.00 With BoyleSports

As I’ve already said, second leg matches in UEFA Champions League ties are more likely to produce incredibly open and high scoring games, especially in instances where one side has to chase the game and overturn a deficit.

While Napoli may only be a single goal behind after their first leg clash with Milan, The Little Donkeys are already an aggressive and attack-oriented side, and they’ll no doubt throw caution to the wind as they look to level the tie as quickly as possible.

So, although Milan have demonstrated their ability to restrict Napoli’s prolific attack and counter effectively, I expect the home side to break through, while an early goal for Luciano Spalletti’s team could well turn the tie in their favour.

Because of this, it may be worth backing Napoli to win by two goals on the night at a price of 5.00 with BoyleSports. As this is a higher risk wager with potentially inflated returns, however, I’d recommending staking a nominal amount of cash through your sportsbook of choice.

🎁 Napoli vs Milan Free Bets

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As a new Unibet customer, you can qualify for free bets up to a maximum value of €40. Simply make a first deposit and qualifying wager of at least €10, and if this bet is unsuccessful, up to €40 will be credited to your account in the form of a full refund. Any stakes that are refunded to your account must be wagered three times before you can complete a withdrawal, meaning that you’ll have to play through between €30 and €120 depending on the value of your losing bet.

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🥇 Napoli vs AC Milan Path to the Final

Milan’s narrow, first leg win against Napoli saw them inch towards a place in the Champions League semi-final, which would be the club’s first appearance in the final four since they last won the tournament in 2007.

If they’re able to complete the job in the second leg at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, the draw dictates that they’ll face either Benfica or city rivals Inter in the semi-finals. Inter are currently in pole position in that tie, having delivered a clinical display to defeat Benfica 2-0 at the Estádio da Luz.

Regardless of who eventually reaches the last four and whether we see a Milan derby or not, the two legs of the semi-final tie will take place between May 9th and May 17th. Then comes the final at the Ataturk Stadium in Istanbul, which is scheduled to take place on June 10th.

If Napoli or Milan get this far, they’ll play either Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid or Chelsea. Both City and Madrid hold healthy first leg leads over Bayern and Chelsea respectively, so the smart money is on one of these sides appearing in the 2022/23 UCL final.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions About Napoli vs Milan Prediction

1️⃣ Napoli vs Milan Champions League leg 2 – who will win?

Throughout this Napoli vs Milan preview and prediction, I’ve backed the former to win the second leg and turn the UCL quarterfinal side in their favour. The return of the prolific Victor Osimhen to Napoli’s starting 11 could prove crucial here, and while the game could well go to extra time, I expect the relentless Serie A leaders to eventually grind Milan down in Naples.


2️⃣ What’s the best price for Napoli to beat Milan?

Regardless of who eventually advances from this quarterfinal tie, the bookies have made Napoli the clear favourites to win in 90 minutes at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. If you want to engage in direct moneyline betting and back Napoli to win the second leg, you can do so at a market high price of 1.86 with PalmSlots Sports.


3️⃣ What price are Napoli and Milan to qualify for the UCL semi-finals?

While Napoli are widely tipped to edge the second leg against Milan, they’re currently second favourites to win the tie as a whole. In fact, they can be backed at an average price of 2.05 to achieve this objective, whereas you can bet on Milan to qualify for the semi-finals at odds of around 1.67.


4️⃣ What are the odds for both sides to win the 2022/23 Champions League?

Despite trailing from the first leg (and the fact that Milan are favourites to ultimately win this quarterfinal tie), Napoli can still be backed at an average price of 8.00 to win the 2022/23 Champions League. Interestingly, you can bet on Milan at slightly higher odds, with most bookies pricing them at around 13.00 to win the tournament outright.

✒️ Lewis Humphries – UEFA Champions League Betting Expert

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands.His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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