Manchester City vs Real Madrid: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Manchester City vs Real Madrid Prediction

The quality of finishing at the Bernabeu was quite something, with Real Madrid and Man City producing six high-quality goals from a combined xG of just 1.58. All of City’s strikes came from outside the 18-yard box in a match where Guardiola’s team dominated possession, and Madrid looked to exploit their opponents’ lack of pace in transition.

Of course, the ability of both teams to score goals out of nothing should not come as a surprise. After all, Man City have outperformed their collective xG of 21.9 by +5.1 goals in this season’s UCL, while averaging 0.13 goals-per-shot. As for Los Blancos, they’ve outperformed their own xG by +2.1 goals, although they’ve been less prolific than City overall.

Despite their contrasting tactical approaches, City and Madrid are both among the most creative teams in the 2023/24 UCL, too. For example, they average 37.11 and 33.78 shot-creating actions per 90 respectively, while completing 257 and 236 live passes that have led to an attempt on goal. The really good news for Madrid is that they’ve generated this attacking output despite averaging 15% less possession than City on average, and this will stand them in good stead at the Etihad.

Because of this, Madrid will be a constant threat in Manchester and I fully expect them to score at the Etihad. However, City’s likely dominance of the ball will afford their creative players the chance to shine in the second leg, while the potential return of Kyle Walker could be key to countering Real’s threat in transition. So, I’m tipping City to win and reach the last four for the fourth successive season.

💯 Manchester City vs Real Madrid Match Odds

City’s imperious home form has clearly influenced Ireland’s best betting sites, with the Citizens heavy favourites to win the second leg. However, there are better value markets such as BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes, but how are these currently being priced?

🏅 Manchester City vs Real Madrid: Match Winner

You can back City to win the second leg at around 1.61, with these odds implying a 62.11% probability of a home victory. It’s unusual for Real Madrid to be betting underdogs in a Champions League quarterfinal, but their average price of 4.65 affords them just a 21.50% chance of prevailing at the Etihad. Interestingly, City are priced even lower to qualify for the UCL semi-finals, with their odds of 1.36 implying a 73.52% probability of them achieving this objective.

Team
Man City to Win	1.60	1.65	1.61	1.61	1.60
Real Madrid to Win	4.75	4.50	4.65	4.65	4.50
Draw	4.00	4.20	4.15	4.15	4.20

⚽ Manchester City vs Real Madrid: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 14 of Man City’s 23 home matches in all competitions this season (61%). Guardiola’s team have kept nine clean sheets at the Etihad, while only Arsenal have stopped the Citizens from scoring in front of their own fans. Both sides have also found the net in 14 of Real Madrid’s 22 away games in 2023/24 (64%), with Carlo Ancelotti’s charges keeping a total of eight clean sheets and yet to draw a single blank on the road.

Yes/No
Yes	1.60	1.65	1.56	1.56	1.57
No	2.20	2.20	2.29	2.29	2.25

🥅 Manchester City vs Real Madrid: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

City’s 23 home games have also produced an impressive 80 goals at a rate of 3.47 per 90 minutes. Incredibly, the Citizens have scored 62 of these goals at a rate of 2.69 per game. Madrid’s 22 away encounters have yielded a relatively paltry 67 goals at the lower rate of 3.04 per 90, with Los Blancos conceding more than a goal per game on the road.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.55	1.60	1.54	1.54	1.60
Under 2.5 Goals	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.25

1️⃣ Man City Update

City have once again embarked on a mammoth unbeaten run in the second half of the 2023/24 season, with their 5-1 thrashing of Luton extending this to 27 matches in all competitions (and 17 in the Premier League alone). Remember, they haven’t lost in 22 Champions League matches either, as they look to win the coveted treble for the second consecutive campaign. Even more impressively, Man City haven’t been beaten in 30 UCL home games, since Lyon prevailed 2-1 on September 19th, 2018. This highlights the scale of the challenge facing Madrid, especially as they were thrashed 4-0 at the Etihad last May.

Kyle Walker returned to the matchday squad for the visit of Luton, but he’ll continue to be assessed ahead of the second leg at the Etihad Stadium. Ederson also returned at the weekend and will start against Madrid, although John Stones is carrying a knock and will be given every opportunity to prove his fitness before the match. Phil Foden is expected to be fit after the dead leg he incurred in Madrid, but defender Nathan Ake has been ruled out with a calf injury.

2️⃣ Real Madrid Update

Despite lacking City’s fluency and showcasing a tendency to grind out victories throughout much of the 2023/24 campaign, Los Blancos have only lost two of 44 matches in all competitions (both to bitter rivals Atletico Madrid). This impressive and extended run of form has seen Madrid open up an eight-point lead over Barcelona in La Liga, while Madrid are now unbeaten in eight Champions League matches since their chastening 4-0 loss at City last May. On the road, Madrid have only lost one of their previous 18 matches overall, winning 13 of these encounters including all four in this season’s UCL.

Madrid will be without combative French midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni in the second leg, as he’s suspended after being booked at the Bernabeu. Rodrygo is also a doubt with a minor knock, but while he sat out the win at Mallorca at the weekend, he’s expected to be passed fit for the visit to Manchester. Otherwise, Madrid’s only absentees are keeper Thibaut Courtois (meniscus tear) and David Alaba (cruciate ligament tear), with the latter not expected to play again this season.

👕 Man City vs Real Madrid - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.