Real Madrid vs Manchester City: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
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| Timetable | 20:00 GMT 9th April 24 |
| Prediction | Real Madrid to Win! |
| Odds | 2.90 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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Real Madrid and Manchester City will battle in the first leg of their epic Champions League quarterfinal clash next week, with both teams positioned in the toughest half of the draw. Of course, the Citizens produced arguably their greatest-ever UCL performance against Los Blancos in the second leg of the 2022/23 semi-final, winning 4-0 at a buoyant Etihad Stadium. However, Madrid have won this competition a record 14 times and often find a way to win in Europe even when they’re not at their best. But can Los Blancos earn a crucial advantage in the first leg, and who have Ireland’s best betting sites made the favourites here?
🏆 Real Madrid vs Manchester City Prediction
These two teams have now met 10 times in the UEFA Champions League, with Man City having won four of these encounters to Real Madrid’s three. However, Los Blancos have only won one of the previous six since 2016, although was a dramatic 3-1 victory at the Bernabeu that eliminated City during the semi-final stage in May 2022.
Interestingly, City and Madrid have been the two outstanding attacking forces in the 2023/24 UCL, scoring 24 and 17 goals respectively. They’ve also produced an average of 5.63 and 4.12 goal-creating actions per 90 this season, while they boast four of the top 11 tournament goal scorers in Erling Haaland, Julian Alvarez, Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden.
One metric in which City have an advantage here is ball retention. In fact, Pep Guardiola’s side average 71.0% possession per 90 minutes in the Champions League, whereas Madrid boss the ball just 56.9% of the time. So, the Citizens may well control the ball at the Bernabeu while Madrid look to deploy the pace and movement of Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo and Bellingham in transition.
This could suit Madrid, especially against a City side that has struggled defensively this term and kept just a single clean sheet in eight UCL matches so far. So, while City may well have a little too much for Los Blancos over the course of the tie, I’m tipping Carlo Ancelotti’s men to win the first leg and carve out a narrow lead.
My Prediction: 🏆 Real Madrid 2 – 1 Man City ⚽
💯 Real Madrid vs Manchester City Match Odds
The pre-game odds reflect the evenly matched nature of these two teams, although Man City are the narrow favourites to beat Los Blancos in Madrid. You can also bet on BTTS or not and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes, but how are these markets currently being priced by sportsbooks?
🏅 Real Madrid vs Manchester City: Match Winner
You can actually back Man City to win this first-leg clash at an average price of 2.40, which implies a 41.66% probability of an away victory. Conversely, Madrid can be backed at around 2.80 to prevail in front of their home fans, with these odds suggesting that they have a 35.71% chance of defeating the defending European champions.
| Team | .jpg) | .png) | .png) | .jpg) | .jpg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to Win | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.88 |
| Man City to Win | 2.30 | 2.40 | 2.32 | 2.38 | 2.40 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.50 | 3.35 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
⚽ Real Madrid vs Manchester City: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Both teams have scored in eight of Real Madrid’s 19 home games in all competitions this season (42%), with Los Blancos keeping 11 clean sheets at the Bernabeu and drawing just a single blank (against Rayo Vallecano on November 5th). Both sides have found the net in 14 of City’s 21 matches on the road this season (67%), with Guardiola’s team failing to score on three occasions and keeping just four clean sheets.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 | 1.60 | 1.51 | 1.50 | 1.57 |
| No | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.29 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
🥅 Real Madrid vs Manchester City: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Madrid’s 19 home matches in all competitions have produced a total of 56 goals at a rate of 2.94 per game. Los Blancos have scored 46 of these goals at the impressive rate of 2.42 per 90 minutes. Interestingly, City’s 21 away games have yielded 72 goals at the higher rate of 3.42 per 90, although Guardiola’s men have conceded 24 times on the road at a rate of 1.14 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.67 | 1.70 | 1.64 | 1.67 | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.10 | 2.05 | 2.04 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
✔️ Real Madrid vs Manchester City - Betting Tips
As both Real Madrid and Man City are relatively evenly matched, you may want to consider deploying a matched betting strategy here. Simply lay a back bet on Madrid to win at a dedicated exchange and the exact same odds while using one or more of your free bets to guarantee a nominal profit. Here are some additional betting tips to keep in mind ahead of this UCL quarterfinal clash.
- Tip 1: Back Real Madrid to Win: While Madrid may be the betting underdogs to defeat Man City, Los Blancos are undefeated at home in all competitions this season and haven’t lost at the Bernabeu since April 8th, 2023 (when Villareal won a thrilling encounter 3-2). They haven’t lost in 12 Champions League home matches since April 12th, 2022, when Chelsea won the second leg of their own quarterfinal clash 3-2. Ultimately, Madrid will be tough to beat and boast an exceptional goal threat, so there may be some value in backing them to win the first leg outright at a price of 2.90 with 1Bet Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Real Madrid to Win and Both Teams to Score: Through combination betting, you can create even greater value when backing Real Madrid to beat Man City in their first-leg clash. Remember, City have only failed to score in three of their 21 away matches in all competitions this season, while they’ve found the net in 10 successive games on the road since December 6th. Interestingly, you can back Madrid to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 5.00 with Royalist Play, which unlocks some potentially significant returns.
- Tip 3: Back Jude Bellingham as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you want to bet on the identity of an anytime goalscorer, Madrid’s precocious Jude Bellingham offers particular value at a price of 3.45 with Legend Play. The young English star already has four UCL goals this season from 19 attempts and an xG of 2.7, while he has scored 20 times in just 32 appearances in all competitions since joining Madrid in the summer. Bellingham already has two goals in just four career appearances against Man City, too, and he’ll pose a huge threat with his direct running from midfield and unerring eye for the spectacular.
1️⃣ Real Madrid Update
While there remains a sense that Real Madrid have yet to hit top gear in 2023/24, they’ve won 33 of the 42 matches they’ve contested and lost just twice all season (both to city rivals Atletico). This extended run of form has seen them open an eight-point gap over Barcelona at the top of La Liga, while they’ve won seven of their eight Champions League matches and progressed serenely to the last eight of the competition. Since their sole league defeat at the Cívitas Metropolitano on September 24th, Real have lost just one of 35 matches and continue to grind out one outstanding result after the other!
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid 2 Athletic Bilbao 0 | 31.03.24 La Liga |
| Osasuna 2 Real Madrid 4 | 16.03.24 La Liga |
| Real Madrid 4 Celta Vigo 0 | 10.03.24 La Liga |
| Real Madrid 1 RB Leipzig 1 | 06.03.24 Champions League |
| Valencia 2 Real Madrid 2 | 02.03.24 La Liga |
Madrid are virtually at full strength for the visit of Man City, with defender Eder Militão one of several players to have recently returned from injury. However, David Alaba remains sidelined for the season with a cruciate ligament tear, while first-choice keeper Thibaut Courtois has a meniscus tear that will keep him out until early May.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| David Alaba | Cruciate Ligament Tear |
| Thibaut Courtois | Meniscus Tear |
2️⃣ Man City Update
While City’s form has come under scrutiny following their recent 0-0 draw with Arsenal, Guardiola’s team remain unbeaten in 24 matches since losing 1-0 at Aston Villa on December 6th. This superb run of form has seen them win the FIFA Club World Cup and reach the UCL last eight, while they’re also poised to take on Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley on April 20th. The defending European champions are also unbeaten in 21 UEFA Champions League matches since May 2022, when Madrid scored three late goals to stun the Citizens and eliminate them at the semi-final stage.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Man City 4 Aston Villa 1 | 03.04.24 Premier League |
| Man City 0 Arsenal 0 | 31.03.24 Premier League |
| Man City 2 Newcastle 0 | 16.03.24 FA Cup |
| Liverpool 1 Man City 1 | 10.03.24 Premier League |
| Man City 3 Copenhagen 1 | 06.03.24 Champions League |
John Stones should be fit to start for City in Madrid, while first-choice goalkeeper Ederson is expected to make his return from a hamstring strain at Crystal Palace at the weekend. However, the quarterfinal first leg may come a little too soon for Kyle Walker, who continues to report some tightness in his thigh muscle. Fellow defender Nathan Ake has also been ruled out with a calf injury but may be fit enough to play some role in the return leg.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Kyle Walker | Thigh Injury |
| Ederson | Hamstring Injury |
| Nathan Ake | Calf Injury |
👕 Real Madrid vs Man City - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Real Madrid 4-2-2-2 | Man City 3-2-4-1 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | A. Lunin | Ederson | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | D. Carvajal | M. Akanji | Right Centre Back |
| Centre Back | A. Rudiger | R. Dias | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | E. Militão | J. Gvardiol | Left Centre Back |
| Left Back | F. Mendy | J. Stones | Defensive Midfielder |
| Defensive Midfielder | A. Tchouaméni | Rodri | Defensive Midfielder |
| Defensive Midfielder | T. Kroos | B. Silva | Right Midfielder |
| Attacking Midfielder | F. Valverde | D. De Bruyne | Attacking Midfielder |
| Attacking Midfielder | J. Bellingham | P. Foden | Attacking Midfielder |
| Striker | Rodrygo | J. Grealish | Left Midfielder |
| Striker | Vinicius Junior | E. Haaland | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
