Borussia Dortmund vs PSV: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 13th Mar 24
PredictionBorussia Dortmund To Win!
Bookmaker1Bet Sports
Borussia Dortmund To Win!
The best odds
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 2.05
Bet €100 and win €205 if Borussia Dortmund win.

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Odds : 2.02
Bet €100 and win €202 if Borussia Dortmund win.
Mr Mega Sports
Odds : 2.02
Bet €100 and win €202 if Borussia Dortmund win.

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The Champions League tie between Borussia Dortmund and PSV Eindhoven is evenly poised after a tense 1-1 draw in the Netherland on February 20th. However, Edin Terzic's Dortmund side boast far more experience in the UCL knockout stages, while they haven’t lost in the competition at Signal Iduna Park since November 2021.

So, although PSV have only lost twice all season on the road, they’ll start as slight underdogs with Ireland’s best betting sites. But which side do I think will win I Germany?

🏆 Borussia Dortmund v PSV Prediction

Dortmund produced a measured away performance during the first leg in Eindhoven, defending tenaciously while maintaining a threat on the break throughout. So, while PSV’s xG of 1.53 was noticeably higher than that of the Bundesliga side (0.90) during the 90 minutes, it appeared as though Dortmund had additional gears to find if needed.

Interestingly, Dortmund remain one of the most efficient defensive teams in the competition, having conceded just five goals in their seven matches and winning a tournament-high 93 tackles. They’ve won 57.60% of their attempted tackles in total (no teams still in the competition have a better success rate), while the side has made just a single error leading to an opponent’s shot this season.

They may need this resilience at Signal Iduna Park too, with PSV having 55% of the all in the first leg and averaging 51.70% possession per 90 minutes in the Champions League (compared to 44.10% for Dortmund). This reflects the Dutch team’s front-foot approach, with PSV having produced 28.43 shot-creating actions per 90 in 2023/24 and completed 151 open-play passes that led to an attempt on goal.

However, Dortmund are slightly more clinical in front of goal and arguably more comfortable playing in transition and they have years of Champions League knockout experience in their favour. So, I expect them to be too streetwise for PSV and edge another close and potentially end-to-end encounter.

My Prediction: 🏆 Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 PSV ⚽

💯 Borussia Dortmund v PSV Match Odds

Although PSV are the slight underdogs coming into the second leg match, this tie is undoubtedly one of the most evenly poised and difficult to predict in the round of 16. Of course, you can also wager on BTTS (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the second leg, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Borussia Dortmund v PSV: Match Winner

Dortmund can be backed at around 2.00 to defeat PSV in Germany, with these odds implying a 50% chance of a home win. Alternatively, you can bet on the Dutch league leaders to prevail at an average price of 3.20, which suggests that they have a 31.25% chance of winning. Dortmund are also the favourites to qualify for the last eight at a price of 1.67, while PSV can be backed at 2.35 to win the tie overall.

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Borussia Dortmund to Win2.
PSV Eindhoven to Win3.

⚽ Borussia Dortmund v PSV: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 19 of Dortmund’s previous 34 matches in 2023/24 (56%), including their last three Champions League games. Dortmund have kept a total of 12 clean sheets and failed to score on five occasions. Both sides have found the net in 21 of PSV’s 38 matches in all competitions (55%), keeping 15 clean sheets and failing to score twice. Interestingly, they’ve only stopped their opponents from scoring once in 11 UCL matches this season (including qualifying).

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🥅 Borussia Dortmund v PSV: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Dortmund’s 34 matches in 2023/24 have produced 101 goals in total at a rate of 2.97 per game, with the Bundesliga outfit scoring 63 of these goals. However, PSV’s domestic dominance has seen them score 106 goals by themselves in all competitions, while their 38 matches have yielded 137 goals at a rate of 3.60 per 90.

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Over 2.5 Goals1.571.571.561.561.57
Under 2.5 Goals2.

✔️ Borussia Dortmund v PSV - Betting Tips

The pre-game odds highlight how evenly matched these two teams are, so you may want to consider implementing a matched betting strategy here. This is an excellent use of any free bets that you have and can unlock incremental profits, but what other tips should you keep in mind ahead of the second leg?

  • Tip 1: Back Dortmund to Win With Over 2.5 Goals: Combination betting can be particularly rewarding, especially when you combine two or more outcomes that a have high implied probability of occurring. In this case, I’d recommend backing Dortmund to win with over 2.5 goals scored at the enhanced price of 2.88 with Betway. This reflects Dortmund’s experience and UCL home record and the fact that PSV alone have scored 106 goals in 38 matches at a rate of 2.78 per 90 minutes this season.
  • Tip 2: Back Karim Adeyemi as an Anytime Scorer: Karim Adeyemi is Dortmund’s top scorer in this season’s UEFA Champions League, having struck two goals in just three starts. His goals have also come from just seven shots and an individual xG of 1.1 and his pace and power mean that he’ll be a genuine threat behind PSV’s relatively high defensive line. You can back Adeyemi as an anytime scorer at a price of price of 4.00 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Dortmund to Lead at Full and Half Time: Half and full-time betting could be rewarding here, especially with Dortmund having scored four times in the first half of their UCL fixtures in 2023/24 and conceded just once. Conversely, PSV have only found the net once during the opening 45 minutes and conceded six times. Dortmund’s ability to edge in front will make them even more threatening on the break. Get on Dortmund to win both halves at a price of 3.40 with 1Bet Sports.

1️⃣ Borussia Dortmund Update

Dortmund are on a mini-run of just one win in four matches, including the 1-1 draw against PSV at the Philips Stadion. They’ve won just one of their previous three Bundesliga matches, with this sequence including a shock 3-2 defeat to 1899 Hoffenheim and a 1-1 draw at Wolfsburg. As a result, the side is now fourth in the Bundesliga and only a point clear of RB Leipzig in the race for a 2024/25 Champions League spot, while they remain six points behind VfB Stuttgart in third place. However, a win against PSV will keep their slender hopes of winning this year’s UCL alive!

Last 5 Games
Union Berlin 0
Borussia Dortmund 2
Borussia Dortmund 2
1899 Hoffenheim 3
PSV Eindhoven 1
Borussia Dortmund 1
Champions League
Wolfsburg 1
Borussia Dortmund 1
Borussia Dortmund 3
SC Freiburg 0

Dortmund have been rocked by an ankle injury to Sebastien Haller having been ruled out until April. Midfielder Samuel Bamba is also sidelined until late March with a muscle injury and first-choice keeper Gregor Kobel remains a doubt with a similar complaint. Felix Nmecha will be assessed closer to kick-off too as he continues to build his fitness after injury.

Player Reason
Felix Nmecha Fitness
Samuel Bamba Muscle Injury
Sebastien Haller Ankle Injury
Gregor Kobel Muscle Injury

2️⃣ PSV Eindhoven Update

While PSV’s 17-match winning run at the beginning of their Eredivisie campaign may have come to an end with a 1-1 draw at Utrecht on January 21st, they remain unbeaten in 24 matches and have amassed 66 points over the course of the season. In total, they’ve only lost two of their 38 matches across all competitions this season, including one of 11 in the Champions League (a 4-0 thumping at Arsenal on September 20th). Feyenoord are the only other team to beat PSV in 2023/14, edging them 1-0 at De Kuip in the KNVB Cup round of 16 on January 24th.

Last 5 Games
Feyenoord 2
PEC Zwolle 1
Borussia Dortmund 1
Champions League
Heracles 0
FC Volendam 1

The Dortmund game comes a little too soon for midfielder Ismael Saibari as he's still out from a knock. Central midfield pivot Joey Veerman is also a doubt with illness although he will be assessed prior to kick-off and could feature in the matchday squad. Pacy winger Noa Lang has been ruled out for the season with a serious hamstring injury.

Player Reason
Noa Lang Hamstring Injury
Joey Veerman Illness
Ismael Saibari Knock

👕 Borussia Dortmund vs PSV - Potential Lineups

Pos. Borussia Dortmund
Goalkeeper A. Meyer W. Benitez Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Ryerson J. Teze Right Back
Centre Back N. Sule A. Rahmalho Centre Back
Centre Back N. Schlotterbeck O. Boscagli Centre Back
Left Back I. Maatsen S. Dest Left Back
Midfielder E. Can J. Schouten Midfielder
Midfielder M. Sabitzer M. Junior Midfielder
Midfielder M. Reus M. Tillman Midfielder
Wide Forward K. Adeyemi J. Bakayoko Wide Forward
Striker D. Füllkrug L. de Jong Striker
Wide Forward D. Malen H. Lozano Striker

Borussia Dortmund To Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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