Borussia Dortmund vs PSV: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Borussia Dortmund v PSV Prediction

Dortmund produced a measured away performance during the first leg in Eindhoven, defending tenaciously while maintaining a threat on the break throughout. So, while PSV’s xG of 1.53 was noticeably higher than that of the Bundesliga side (0.90) during the 90 minutes, it appeared as though Dortmund had additional gears to find if needed.

Interestingly, Dortmund remain one of the most efficient defensive teams in the competition, having conceded just five goals in their seven matches and winning a tournament-high 93 tackles. They’ve won 57.60% of their attempted tackles in total (no teams still in the competition have a better success rate), while the side has made just a single error leading to an opponent’s shot this season.

They may need this resilience at Signal Iduna Park too, with PSV having 55% of the all in the first leg and averaging 51.70% possession per 90 minutes in the Champions League (compared to 44.10% for Dortmund). This reflects the Dutch team’s front-foot approach, with PSV having produced 28.43 shot-creating actions per 90 in 2023/24 and completed 151 open-play passes that led to an attempt on goal.

However, Dortmund are slightly more clinical in front of goal and arguably more comfortable playing in transition and they have years of Champions League knockout experience in their favour. So, I expect them to be too streetwise for PSV and edge another close and potentially end-to-end encounter.

💯 Borussia Dortmund v PSV Match Odds

Although PSV are the slight underdogs coming into the second leg match, this tie is undoubtedly one of the most evenly poised and difficult to predict in the round of 16. Of course, you can also wager on BTTS (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the second leg, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Borussia Dortmund v PSV: Match Winner

Dortmund can be backed at around 2.00 to defeat PSV in Germany, with these odds implying a 50% chance of a home win. Alternatively, you can bet on the Dutch league leaders to prevail at an average price of 3.20, which suggests that they have a 31.25% chance of winning. Dortmund are also the favourites to qualify for the last eight at a price of 1.67, while PSV can be backed at 2.35 to win the tie overall.

Team
Borussia Dortmund to Win	2.05	2.00	2.02	2.02	2.00
PSV Eindhoven to Win	3.25	3.20	3.15	3.15	3.10
Draw	3.60	3.75	3.60	3.60	3.70

⚽ Borussia Dortmund v PSV: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 19 of Dortmund’s previous 34 matches in 2023/24 (56%), including their last three Champions League games. Dortmund have kept a total of 12 clean sheets and failed to score on five occasions. Both sides have found the net in 21 of PSV’s 38 matches in all competitions (55%), keeping 15 clean sheets and failing to score twice. Interestingly, they’ve only stopped their opponents from scoring once in 11 UCL matches this season (including qualifying).

Yes/No
Yes	1.44	1.55	1.48	1.48	1.50
No	2.40	2.50	2.42	2.42	2.50

🥅 Borussia Dortmund v PSV: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Dortmund’s 34 matches in 2023/24 have produced 101 goals in total at a rate of 2.97 per game, with the Bundesliga outfit scoring 63 of these goals. However, PSV’s domestic dominance has seen them score 106 goals by themselves in all competitions, while their 38 matches have yielded 137 goals at a rate of 3.60 per 90.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.57	1.57	1.56	1.56	1.57
Under 2.5 Goals	2.25	2.25	2.23	2.23	2.25

1️⃣ Borussia Dortmund Update

Dortmund are on a mini-run of just one win in four matches, including the 1-1 draw against PSV at the Philips Stadion. They’ve won just one of their previous three Bundesliga matches, with this sequence including a shock 3-2 defeat to 1899 Hoffenheim and a 1-1 draw at Wolfsburg. As a result, the side is now fourth in the Bundesliga and only a point clear of RB Leipzig in the race for a 2024/25 Champions League spot, while they remain six points behind VfB Stuttgart in third place. However, a win against PSV will keep their slender hopes of winning this year’s UCL alive!

Dortmund have been rocked by an ankle injury to Sebastien Haller having been ruled out until April. Midfielder Samuel Bamba is also sidelined until late March with a muscle injury and first-choice keeper Gregor Kobel remains a doubt with a similar complaint. Felix Nmecha will be assessed closer to kick-off too as he continues to build his fitness after injury.

2️⃣ PSV Eindhoven Update

While PSV’s 17-match winning run at the beginning of their Eredivisie campaign may have come to an end with a 1-1 draw at Utrecht on January 21st, they remain unbeaten in 24 matches and have amassed 66 points over the course of the season. In total, they’ve only lost two of their 38 matches across all competitions this season, including one of 11 in the Champions League (a 4-0 thumping at Arsenal on September 20th). Feyenoord are the only other team to beat PSV in 2023/14, edging them 1-0 at De Kuip in the KNVB Cup round of 16 on January 24th.

The Dortmund game comes a little too soon for midfielder Ismael Saibari as he's still out from a knock. Central midfield pivot Joey Veerman is also a doubt with illness although he will be assessed prior to kick-off and could feature in the matchday squad. Pacy winger Noa Lang has been ruled out for the season with a serious hamstring injury.

👕 Borussia Dortmund vs PSV - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.