PSV v Borussia Dortmund: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

psv-vs-borussia-dortmund-prediction psv-vs-borussia-dortmund-prediction
TournamentUEFA Champions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 20 Feb 24
PredictionDortmund to win.
Odds@3.10
Bookmaker1Bet Sports
Dortmund to win.
The best odds
1.
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 3.10
Bet €100 and win €310 if Borussia Dortmund win.
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2.
Betiton
Odds : 3.10
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€10
3.
Mr Mega Sports
Odds : 3.00
Bet €100 and win €300 if Borussia Dortmund win.
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psv-vs-borussia-dortmund-prediction psv-vs-borussia-dortmund-prediction

PSV take on Borussia Dortmund in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 clashes next week, in one of the most intriguing and difficult-to-call ties. Of course, PSV are unbeaten in 16 home matches this season in all competitions, winning 14 of these encounters and scoring 47 goals. However, they haven’t entertained many teams with the European pedigree or quality of Dortmund, who have only lost three times on the road in 15 outings in 2023/24 so far. But who are the best betting sites tipping to win, and which side do I think will prevail in Eindhoven?

🏆 PSV v Borussia Dortmund Prediction

These two sides haven’t met in the UEFA Champions League for more than 21 years, since two clashes during the 2002/03 group stages. Dortmund achieved an impressive 3-1 win at the PSV Stadion, with former Czech legend Tomáš Rosický influential. The sides then shared a 1-1 draw three weeks later in the return game, with the Bundesliga outfit ultimately qualifying for the second group stage while PSV were eliminated.

In this season’s UCL, the teams have been evenly matched, with PSV and Dortmund scoring eight and seven group stage goals from respective xG values of 7.9 and 8.0. However, the Dutch side have attempted 32 shots on target and produced 29.00 shot-creating actions per 90, whereas Dortmund have been far less productive in the attacking third.

PSV have also averaged 51.2% possession per 90 in this season’s Champions League, compared to just 44.0% for Dortmund. So, the Dutch side will look to dominate the ball at the Philips Stadion, while Dortmund maintain their shape and seek out opportunities to counterattack. No side has attempted more tackles in the defensive third than Dortmund in this season’s UCL campaign (81), and they’ll aim to quickly exploit PSV’s high block when they do regain possession.

This could create an intriguing game of cat and mouse, and Dortmund’s greater experience and the quality of their attacking players may prove crucial. Certainly, Youssoufa Moukoko, Donyell Malen and Jadon Sancho can wreak havoc in transition, and I’m tipping a wily Dortmund side to prevail in Eindhoven.

My Prediction: 🏆 PSV 1 – 2 Borussia Dortmund⚽

💯 PSV v Borussia Dortmund Match Odds

How you bet on the clash between PSV and Borussia Dortmund will be influenced heavily by the pre-game odds, which are now available across all of Betinireland’s recommended sportsbooks. But what are the most popular betting markets, and how are they currently being priced?

🏅 PSV v Borussia Dortmund: Match Winner

While I’m tipping Dortmund to win in Eindhoven, the bookies have made PSV the pre-game favourites. In fact, PSV can be backed at around 2.14 to prevail, which implies a 46.72% probability of a home win. Alternatively, Dortmund are priced as high as 3.10 to triumph, suggesting that they have just a 32.25% chance of winning.

Team
PSV Eindhoven to Win2.102.152.142.252.10
Borussia Dortmund to Win3.103.003.103.003.00
Draw3.603.503.653.603.60

⚽ PSV v Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 18 of PSV’s 34 matches in all competitions this season, with the Dutch side keeping 14 clean sheets and failing to score on just two occasions. In total, both sides have found the net in 16 of Dortmund’s 30 matches in 2023/24, with Edin Terzić’s charges keeping 11 clean sheets and drawing five blanks (including two in the Champions League).

Team
Yes1.501.571.521.531.50
No2.402.382.422.502.50

🥅 PSV v Borussia Dortmund: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

These two sides have contested 64 matches between them in 2023/24, with these encounters yielding 211 goals at a rate of 3.29 per game. Interestingly, PSV’s 10 Champions League games (including qualifiers) have produced 37 goals at a rate of 3.70 per 90, while Dortmund’s six European encounters have seen just 11 goals scored (although this may have something to do with the quality of their opposition).

Team
Over 2.5 Goals1.601.651.601.601.62
Under 2.5 Goals2.252.102.192.202.20

✔️ PSV v Borussia Dortmund - Betting Tips

While PSV are the clear pre-game favourites to defeat Dortmund, the current odds arguably don’t reflect the evenly matched nature of the two sides. This may create additional value in certain betting markets, so here are some tips to help you navigate these successfully!

  • Tip 1: Consider a Matched Betting Strategy: If you have one or more free bets on your account, you could deploy a matched betting strategy ahead of the game between PSV and Dortmund. You just need to lay a back bet on PSV or Dortmund to win and cover all potential match outcomes, while the use of a free bet will ensure at least a nominal profit. You’ll also need to lay your back wager at a reputable betting exchange.

  • Tip 2: Back Dortmund to Win and Both Teams to Score: While Dortmund may be the underdogs in Eindhoven, they have significantly more Champions League experience than PSV. They also boast tremendous pace and movement in attack, and this could prove too much for the Dutch side’s aggressively high defensive line. The contrasting approach of each side and the quality of attackers on show should also contribute to an open and chance-laden game, so get on Dortmund to win and both teams to score at a price of 5.00 with Betway.
  • Tip 3: Back Dortmund to Score First: Dortmund have opened the scoring in their last four Champions League games, while they’ve scored three times and conceded just once in the opening 45 minutes of their UCL matches this season. Conversely, PSV scored one goal and conceded five during the first halves of their six Group B matches, while they fell behind in four of these encounters. So, there may be some value in backing Dortmund to score first at a price of 2.20 with 1Bet Sports.

1️⃣ PSV Update

The Dutch side have endured a superb season to date, winning 26 of their 34 matches in all competitions and losing just twice. They’ve also plundered 94 goals at a rate of 2.76 per 90 minutes while opening up a 10-point lead at the top of the Eredivisie and qualifying ahead of RC Lens and Sevilla in UCL Group B. They also have one of Europe’s most creative players, with midfielder Joey Veerman producing 5.56 shot-creating actions per 90 in this season’s Champions League. However, PSV have stuttered slightly in recent times, winning just two of their previous five matches and exiting the KNVB Cup after a round of 16 defeat to rivals Feyenoord.

Last 5 Games
FC Volendam 1
PSV 5
11.02.24
Eredivisie
Ajax 1
PSV 1
03.02.24
Eredivisie
PSV 2
Almere City 0
27.01.24
Eredivisie
Feyenoord 1
PSV 0
24.01.24
KNVB Cup
Utrecht 1
PSV 1
21.01.24
Eredivisie

PSV have recently welcomed back midfielder Ismael Saibari from international duty, after his exploits with Morocco in the African Cup of Nations. However, they’re expected to remain without pacy winger Noa Lang (hamstring injury), while powerful centre-back Armel Bella-Kotchap is also doubtful as he continues his recovery from an unknown injury concern.

PlayerReason
Noa LangHamstring Injury
Armel Bella-KotchapUnknown Injury

2️⃣ Borussia Dortmund Update

Dortmund managed to top the so-called ‘Group of Death’ in this season’s Champions League, qualifying ahead of PSG while eliminating AC Milan and Newcastle. They’re in relatively good form too at present, having gone unbeaten in eight games in all competitions since a 3-2 home defeat to RB Leipzig on December 9th. They’ve also only lost three of 15 away matches throughout 2023/24, while VfB Stuttgart were the last side to beat Dortmund on the road in the DFB-Pokal round of 16 on December 6th. They’ve also only failed to score in three away matches this season, including their opening UCL clash at PSG back on September 19th.

Last 5 Games
Borussia Dortmund 3
SC Freiburg 0
09.02.24
Bundesliga
Heidenheim 0
Borussia Dortmund 0
02.02.24
Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 3
VfL Bochum 1
28.01.24
Bundesliga
FC Koln 0
Borussia Dortmund 4
20.01.24
Bundesliga
Darmstadt 0
Borussia Dortmund 3
13.01.24
Bundesliga

Dortmund have also welcomed back Ivory Coast’s AFCON hero Sébastien Haller from international duty, and he could well start at the Philips Stadion. However, central midfielder Felix Nmecha is expected to remain sidelined with ongoing hip problems, while the tenacious Salih Özcan is also a doubt with illness. Julien Duranville will miss the trip to Eindhoven too, as he continues his recovery from a thigh injury.

PlayerReason
Felix NmechaHip Injury
Salih ÖzcanIllness
Julien DuranvilleThigh Injury

👕 PSV vs Borussia Dortmund - Potential Lineups

Pos. PSV
4-3-3
Borussia Dortmund
4-2-2-2
Pos.
Goalkeeper W. Benitez G. Kobel Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Teze J. Ryerson Right Back
Centre Back A. Ramalho N. Süle Centre Back
Centre Back O. Boscagli N. Schlotterbeck Centre Back
Left Back S. Dest I. Maatsen Left Back
Midfielder J. Veerman M. Sabitzer Defensive Midfielder
Midfielder J. Schouten E. Can Defensive Midfielder
Midfielder M. Tillman M. Reus Attacking Midfielder
Wide Forward J. Bakayoko J. Bynoe-Gittens Attacking Midfielder
Striker L. de Jong D. Füllkrug Striker
Wide Forward H. Lozano D. Malen Striker

Dortmund to win.

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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