Bayern vs Lazio: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Bayern vs Lazio Prediction

This will be the fourth UCL meeting between Bayern and Lazio, with the Serie A side having recorded their first win against the Bavarians in the competition last time out. However, Bayern won the previous two matches during the round of 16 in 2020/21, claiming a comfortable 6-2 aggregate victory overall.

Lazio’s first-leg win was certainly unexpected, but they frustrated an under-par Bayern team that failed to record a shot on target during the 90 minutes. However, the game turned following Dayot Upamecano’s foul on Gustav Isaksen in the second half, which saw the French defender dismissed and resulted in a penalty that was subsequently converted by veteran striker Ciro Immobile.

However, Bayern saw 61.00% of the ball in Rome, which is only marginally higher than their average of 58.10% per 90 in the UCL overall. Conversely, Lazio only averaged 44.70% possession in the tournament so far, while their tally of eight goals in seven Champions League matches this season highlights a relative lack of attacking threat that could cost them in Munich.

Harry Kane also returned to goalscoring form with strikes against Bochum and Leipzig, taking his tally to 31 goals in 31 appearances this season. In the UCL, he has recorded seven goal involvements (four goals and three assists) in seven matches and averages 0.87 goal-creating actions per 90, and I expect him to make the difference on what could well be a tense night in Munich.

💯 Bayern vs Lazio Match Odds

The pre-game odds have already been released ahead of Bayern’s second-leg clash with Lazio, covering popular markets such as the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on the total number of goals scored during the match. But how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Bayern vs Lazio: Match Winner

Bayern are the overwhelming favourites to defeat Lazio in the second leg, with their average price of 1.21 implying an 82.64% probability of a home win. Conversely, Lazio can be backed at around 11.00 to prevail, suggesting that they have just a 9.09% chance of succeeding. Bayern are also priced at 1.50 qualify, so they’re heavy favourites to win the tie too!

Team
Bayern to Win	1.22	1.25	1.21	1.22	1.22
Lazio to Win	12.00	10.00	10.40	11.00	10.00
Draw	5.50	5.50	5.70	5.50	5.80

⚽ Bayern vs Lazio: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in seven of Bayern’s 16 home matches in all competitions this season (44.00%), with the Bavarians keeping seven clean sheets and failing to score on just three occasions. As for Lazio, both sides have found the net in 11 of their 17 games on the road (65.00%), with Maurizio Sarri’s side keeping three clean sheets and drawing three blanks.

Yes/No
Yes	1.91	2.05	2.06	1.95	2.00
No	1.80	1.75	1.63	1.73	1.73

🥅 Bayern vs Lazio: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Bayern’s 16 home matches in all competitions have also produced a total of 60 goals, at the impressive rate of 3.75 per game. Bayern have scored 45 of these goals at 2.81 per 90. Lazio’s 17 away clashes have yielded 47 goals at a rate of 2.76 per game, so the pre-game odds imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored at the Allianz Arena.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.53	1.57	1.52	1.57	1.52
Under 2.5 Goals	2.38	2.25	2.27	2.25	2.38

1️⃣ Bayern Update

Bayern’s three-game losing streak included successive Bundesliga defeats and the 1-0 loss in Rome, while it also influenced the decision to remove Thomas Tuchel from his role as head coach in the summer. However, their dramatic 2-1 win over RB Leipzig snapped the Bavarians run, while its manner will have provided a shot in the arm for a side that previously looked devoid of confidence. Harry Kane struck a crucial brace here and took his goals tally for the season to 31 in all competitions, highlighting his ability to keep his cool during clutch moments. He may be needed to showcase similar composure during the second leg against Lazio.

Bayern currently have a slight issue at right back, with Sacha Boey and Noussair Mazraoui (both torn muscle fibres) unavailable for selection. Centre back Tarek Buchmann is also absent with a torn muscle bundle, while Dayot Upamecano will serve his red card suspension having been dismissed in the reverse fixture against Lazio. Bouna Sarr (cruciate ligament tear) and Kingsley Coman (internal ligament tear) are long-term absentees for Bayern. Additionally, reserve keeper Daniel Peretz (inner ligament injury) won’t return for the foreseeable future.

2️⃣ Lazio Update

Lazio have played three times since their famous win over Bayern at the Stadio Olimpico, with a 2-0 win at Torino sandwiched by a home loss to Bologna (2-1) and a 2-1 reversal away at Fiorentina. Sarri’s men have struggled for rhythm and attacking momentum during this sequence, while their league tally of 32 goals in 26 matches remains the lowest of any team in Serie A’s top nine. They remain overly reliant on veteran striker Ciro Immobile too, with the 34-year-old having scored 10 goals in 29 appearances this season and four of Lazio’s eight Champions League goals. No other Lazio player has registered double figures in 2023/24 so far.

Lazio have no new injury concerns ahead of their trip to Munich, although centre half Patric does remain sidelined with an ankle injury. The match against Bayern is also likely to come too soon for midfield pivot Nicolò Rovella, who’s currently nursing a niggling groin injury and should return to fitness by mid-March.

👕 Bayern Munich vs Lazio - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.