Bayern vs Lazio: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

bayern-munich-v-lazio-prediction bayern-munich-v-lazio-prediction
TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 5th Mar 24
PredictionBayern Munich To Win!
Bayern Munich To Win!
The best odds
Odds : 1.25
Bet €100 and win €125 if Bayern Munich win.
€50+ 50 Free Spins
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.22
Bet €100 and win €122 if Bayern Munich win.

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Mr Mega Sports
Odds : 1.22
Bet €100 and win €122 if Bayern Munich win.

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bayern-munich-v-lazio-prediction bayern-munich-v-lazio-prediction

Harry Kane’s stoppage-time winner against RB Leipzig finally broke a three-game losing streak for Bayern, which included a 1-0 defeat against Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico in the first leg of their round of 16 Champions League clash. This has left them with a great deal of work to do to secure a place in the quarterfinals, while Lazio will be looking to qualify for the last eight for the first time since the 1999/00 campaign. Of course, Bayern remain favourites to win here and qualify for the next round, but how are the best betting sites pricing a victory for the Bavarians?

🏆 Bayern vs Lazio Prediction

This will be the fourth UCL meeting between Bayern and Lazio, with the Serie A side having recorded their first win against the Bavarians in the competition last time out. However, Bayern won the previous two matches during the round of 16 in 2020/21, claiming a comfortable 6-2 aggregate victory overall.

Lazio’s first-leg win was certainly unexpected, but they frustrated an under-par Bayern team that failed to record a shot on target during the 90 minutes. However, the game turned following Dayot Upamecano’s foul on Gustav Isaksen in the second half, which saw the French defender dismissed and resulted in a penalty that was subsequently converted by veteran striker Ciro Immobile.

However, Bayern saw 61.00% of the ball in Rome, which is only marginally higher than their average of 58.10% per 90 in the UCL overall. Conversely, Lazio only averaged 44.70% possession in the tournament so far, while their tally of eight goals in seven Champions League matches this season highlights a relative lack of attacking threat that could cost them in Munich.

Harry Kane also returned to goalscoring form with strikes against Bochum and Leipzig, taking his tally to 31 goals in 31 appearances this season. In the UCL, he has recorded seven goal involvements (four goals and three assists) in seven matches and averages 0.87 goal-creating actions per 90, and I expect him to make the difference on what could well be a tense night in Munich.

My Prediction: 🏆 Bayern Munich 2 – 0 Lazio ⚽

💯 Bayern vs Lazio Match Odds

The pre-game odds have already been released ahead of Bayern’s second-leg clash with Lazio, covering popular markets such as the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on the total number of goals scored during the match. But how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Bayern vs Lazio: Match Winner

Bayern are the overwhelming favourites to defeat Lazio in the second leg, with their average price of 1.21 implying an 82.64% probability of a home win. Conversely, Lazio can be backed at around 11.00 to prevail, suggesting that they have just a 9.09% chance of succeeding. Bayern are also priced at 1.50 qualify, so they’re heavy favourites to win the tie too!

Bayern to Win1.
Lazio to Win12.0010.0010.4011.0010.00

⚽ Bayern vs Lazio: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in seven of Bayern’s 16 home matches in all competitions this season (44.00%), with the Bavarians keeping seven clean sheets and failing to score on just three occasions. As for Lazio, both sides have found the net in 11 of their 17 games on the road (65.00%), with Maurizio Sarri’s side keeping three clean sheets and drawing three blanks.


🥅 Bayern vs Lazio: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Bayern’s 16 home matches in all competitions have also produced a total of 60 goals, at the impressive rate of 3.75 per game. Bayern have scored 45 of these goals at 2.81 per 90. Lazio’s 17 away clashes have yielded 47 goals at a rate of 2.76 per game, so the pre-game odds imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored at the Allianz Arena.

Over 2.5 Goals1.531.571.521.571.52
Under 2.5 Goals2.382.

✔️ Bayern vs Lazio - Betting Tips

Lazio’s 1-0 victory over Bayern certainly upset the odds, but the bookies haven’t been deterred from making Thomas Tuchel’s men favourites in both the second leg and the tie as a whole. So, here are some betting tips to help you identify and create value in the most popular wagering markets.

  • Tip 1: Back Under 2.5 Goals Being Scored: While the odds imply a higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the second leg, this has much to do with Bayern’s early season attacking form and the fact that the 104 UCL matches contested in 2023/24 have produced 310 goals at a rate of 2.98 per game. However, Bayern’s patchy form has seen them score just six goals in their last four home games, while Lazio have only struck 22 times in 17 matches on the road this season. This should also be a tight and nervy affair, so consider backing under 2.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.38 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Bayern to Win with a Handicap of -1.75 Goals: I expect Bayern to control proceedings and attack Lazio from the off against Lazio, while the return to form of Harry Kane should afford them a far superior cutting edge at the Allianz Arena. Remember, Lazio are far from being a potent attacking force, with only four players having found the net in their 2023/24 Champions League campaign so far. So, there may be some value in backing Bayern to win with a handicap of -1.75 goas at the enhanced price of 1.91 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back the Time of the First Goal,: If you want to make use of one of your free bets, you could consider backing the time of the first goal in Munich. Bayern have struck eight of their 12 Champions League goals this season in the final 30 minutes of games, while Lazio could well find themselves worn down by this time if the home side are able to dominate possession from the outset. I’d recommend betting on the first goal being scored between minutes 61 and 70, at the competitive price of 15.00 with LegendPlay.

1️⃣ Bayern Update

Bayern’s three-game losing streak included successive Bundesliga defeats and the 1-0 loss in Rome, while it also influenced the decision to remove Thomas Tuchel from his role as head coach in the summer. However, their dramatic 2-1 win over RB Leipzig snapped the Bavarians run, while its manner will have provided a shot in the arm for a side that previously looked devoid of confidence. Harry Kane struck a crucial brace here and took his goals tally for the season to 31 in all competitions, highlighting his ability to keep his cool during clutch moments. He may be needed to showcase similar composure during the second leg against Lazio.

Last 5 Games
Bayern 2
RB Leipzig 1
VfL Bochum 3
Bayern 2
Lazio 1
Bayern 0
UEFA Champions League
Bayer Leverkusen 3
Bayern 0
Bayern 3
Mönchengladbach 1

Bayern currently have a slight issue at right back, with Sacha Boey and Noussair Mazraoui (both torn muscle fibres) unavailable for selection. Centre back Tarek Buchmann is also absent with a torn muscle bundle, while Dayot Upamecano will serve his red card suspension having been dismissed in the reverse fixture against Lazio. Bouna Sarr (cruciate ligament tear) and Kingsley Coman (internal ligament tear) are long-term absentees for Bayern. Additionally, reserve keeper Daniel Peretz (inner ligament injury) won’t return for the foreseeable future.

Player Reason
Sacha Boey Torn Muscle Fibre
Noussair Mazraoui Torn Muscle Fibre
Tarek Buchmann Torn Muscle Bundle
Dayot Upamecano Suspended
Bouna Sarr Cruciate Ligament Tear
Kingsley Coman Internal Ligament Tear
Daniel Peretz Inner Ligament Injury

2️⃣ Lazio Update

Lazio have played three times since their famous win over Bayern at the Stadio Olimpico, with a 2-0 win at Torino sandwiched by a home loss to Bologna (2-1) and a 2-1 reversal away at Fiorentina. Sarri’s men have struggled for rhythm and attacking momentum during this sequence, while their league tally of 32 goals in 26 matches remains the lowest of any team in Serie A’s top nine. They remain overly reliant on veteran striker Ciro Immobile too, with the 34-year-old having scored 10 goals in 29 appearances this season and four of Lazio’s eight Champions League goals. No other Lazio player has registered double figures in 2023/24 so far.

Last 5 Games
Fiorentina 2
Lazio 1
Serie A
Torino 0
Lazio 2
Serie A
Lazio 1
Bologna 2
Serie A
Lazio 1
Bayern Munich 0
UEFA Champions League
Cagliari 1
Lazio 3
Serie A

Lazio have no new injury concerns ahead of their trip to Munich, although centre half Patric does remain sidelined with an ankle injury. The match against Bayern is also likely to come too soon for midfield pivot Nicolò Rovella, who’s currently nursing a niggling groin injury and should return to fitness by mid-March.

Player Reason
Patric Ankle Injury
Nicolò Rovella Groin Injury

👕 Bayern Munich vs Lazio - Potential Lineups

Pos. Bayern Munich
Goalkeeper M. Neuer I. Provedel Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Kimmich M. Lazzari Right Back
Centre Back M. de Ligt N. Casale Centre Back
Centre Back Kim Min-jae A. Romagnoli Centre Back
Left Back R. Guerreiro A. Marušić Left Back
Midfielder K. Laimer M. Guendouzi Midfielder
Midfielder L. Goretzka M. Vecino Midfielder
Midfielder T. Müller L. Alberto Midfielder
Wide Forward L. Sane G. Isaksen Wide Forward
Striker H. Kane C. Immobile Striker
Wide Forward J. Musiala F. Anderson Wide Forward

Bayern Munich To Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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