Lazio v Bayern Munich: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

lazio-v-bayern-munich-prediction lazio-v-bayern-munich-prediction
TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 14 Feb 24
PredictionBayern Munich To Win!
Odds@1.53
Bookmakerbetway
Bayern Munich To Win!
The best odds
1.
betway
Odds : 1.53
Bet €100 and win €153 if Bayern Munich win.
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2.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.52
Bet €100 and win €152 if Bayern Munich win.
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3.
Betiton
Odds : 1.52
Bet €100 and win €152 if Bayern Munich win.
Bonus:
€10
Lazio bayern munich feb Lazio bayern munich feb

Bayern Munich are the second favourites to lift this season’s UEFA Champions League, and they’ll resume their European campaign with a trip to the Italian capital to face Lazio. They’re in relatively good form too, having won seven of their previous eight matches either side of the Bundesliga winter break. As for Lazio, they remain frustratingly inconsistent, and are currently embarked on a three-match winless run and sit ninth in Serie A. However, they went unbeaten at home in their three UCL Group E games, and will be desperate to take a first leg lead to the Allianz Arena. But which side will prevail here, and what do the best betting sites have to say?

🏆 Lazio v Bayern Munich Prediction

Lazio and Bayern have met twice previously in the UEFA Champions League, with the sides also drawn together in the round of 16 during the 2020/21 campaign. Intriguingly, Bayern thrashed the Eagles 4-1 at the Stadio Olimpico in the first leg of this tie, before goals by Robert Lewandowski and Eric Choupo-Moting helped seal a 6-2 aggregate win in Germany.

While their head-to-head record with Bayern is unlikely to give Lazio many reasons for optimism, the statistics suggest that these two sides are relatively evenly matched. For example, Lazio have recorded 22.67 shot-creating actions per 90 in this season’s UCL campaign (compared to 25.17 for Bayern), whereas their xG value of 8.6 is only marginally lower than the Bavarian’s 9.3.

However, Thomas Tuchel’s team have proved to be far more efficient in front of goal, outperforming their xG value by +2.7 goals. Conversely, Lazio have underperformed by -1.6 goals, with the Eagles lacking a proven goalscorer to share the burden placed on the prolific but ageing Ciro Immobile.

Bayern also averaged 57.7% possession per 90 minutes during the group stages (compared to just 45.7%) for Lazio, and I expect them to dominate the ball in Rome. Remember, Bayern striker Harry Kane also has four UCL goals this season from six appearances and an individual xG of just 3.1, so they have the perfect player to provide a cutting edge and maximise their possession.

My Prediction: 🏆 Lazio 0 – 2 Bayern Munich ⚽

💯 Lazio v Bayern Munich Match Odds

If you check out any of the sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews, you’ll see that they all offer huge array of Lazio vs Bayern Munich betting markets. But which of these are the most popular, and how are they currently being priced?

🏅 Lazio v Bayern Munich: Match Winner

We’ll start with the match winner odds, with Lazio priced at around 5.50 to prevail. This implies just an 18.18% probability of a home victory, whereas Bayern can be backed at an average price of 1.52. This means that the Bavarians have a 65.78% chance of emerging victorious in the first leg, which seems reasonable given their superior form and individual quality.

Team
Lazio to Win5.505.255.806.005.25
Bayern to Win1.441.531.521.501.52
Draw4.004.204.254.004.20

⚽ Lazio v Bayern Munich: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have found the net in 13 of Lazio’s 31 games this season (41.93%), with Maurizio Sarri’s men having kept an impressive 12 clean sheets but failed to score on eight occasions. As for Bayern, both sides have scored in 15 of their 29 matches in all competitions (51.72%), with the Bavarians also keeping 12 clean sheets. However, they’ve only failed to find the net on three occasions.

Yes/No
Yes1.731.831.721.751.73
No2.001.952.042.002.00

🥅 Lazio v Bayern Munich: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Lazio and Bayern have played a combined 60 matches so far this season, with these producing 173 goals at a rate of 2.88 per game. However, Lazio have only scored 34 goals in 31 matches at a rate of 1.09 per 90, so Bayern will have to do most of the heavy lifting if we’re to see over 2.5 goals in this first leg encounter.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.621.671.641.671.67
Under 2.5 Goals2.152.102.132.202.10

✔️ Lazio v Bayern Munich - Betting Tips

You may have considered a matched betting strategy ahead of the Champions League round of 16. However, this isn’t necessarily the best strategy here given Bayern’s perceived dominance, and there are certainly better ways to use any free bets that you have on your account! For example:

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams Not to Score: The BTTS odds imply a slightly higher probability of both teams finding the net in Rome, but this fails to recognize Lazio’s struggles in front of goal. Not only have they drawn blanks in eight matches this season and scored at a rate of just 1.09 goals per game in all competitions, but they’ve also found it particularly hard to break down elite opposition. To this end, they’ve failed to score against Napoli, Inter, Milan and Atletico (in their final Group E game), so there’s value in backing both teams not to score at a price of 2.04 with Betiton.
  • Tip 2: Back Bayern to Win with Under 2.5 Goals: Once again, the odds imply a higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the first leg clash between Lazio and Bayern Munich. However, Lazio’s lack of potency may be compensated for in part by their excellent defensive organisation and efficiency, with the side having yet to make a single error leading to an opponent’s shot in the 2023/24 UCL. This means that Bayern will have to remain patient to carve out high quality opportunities, so it may be worth backing the Bundesliga side to win with under 2.5 goals scored at a price of 4.20 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Bayern to Win with a Handicap of -1.5 Goals: I’m tipping Bayern to keep a clean sheet at the Stadio Olimpico, which should enable their attacking players to take centre stage. These include the precocious Jamal Musiala, who has assisted one goal in this season’s UCL and produced 1.04 goal-creating actions per 90. Harry Kane (1.02) and the seasoned Thomas Müller (0.98) have also fared well according to this metric and will look to combine in the final third, so get on Bayern to win with a handicap of -1.5 goals at a price of 2.38 with Mr Mega Sports.

1️⃣ Lazio Update

The Eagles haven’t won a competitive game of football since January 14th, while they’ve only scored once and conceded six goals during their last three matches. This run included a 3-0 thrashing by Inter in the Supercoppa Italiana semi-final, in a match that saw Lazio record just 38.7% possession and fail to produce a single shot on target. As I’ve already touched on, this was the eighth match in which Lazio have failed to score in 2023/24, while the 33-year-old striker Ciro Immobile remains their top scorer in all competitions with just eight goals. Midfielder Matías Vecino is Lazio’s second top scorer with just four goals in 25 appearances.

Last 5 Games
Atalanta 3
Lazio 1
04.02.24
Serie A
Lazio 0
Napoli 0
28.01.24
Serie A
Inter 3
Lazio 0
19.01.24
Supercoppa Italiana
Lazio 1
Lecce 0
14.01.24
Serie A
Lazio 1
Roma 0
10.01.24
Coppa Italia

Lazio have a largely fully fit squad to choose from ahead of the visit of Bayern, although influential centre back Patric is expected to miss out with a shoulder injury. Winger Mattia Zaccagni may also be unavailable with a toe injury, although defensive midfield star Nicolo Rovella is likely to start despite serving a domestic suspension.

Player Reason
Patric Shoulder Injury
Mattia Zaccagni Toe Injury

2️⃣ Bayern Munich Update

While there always seems to be doubt surrounding Thomas Tuchel’s future as Bayern manager, his team have fared relatively well so far in 2023/24. To this end, they’ve won 22 of their 29 matches in all competitions, losing just four times and scoring 76 goals at a rate of 2.62 per game. Including his UCL haul of four goals this season, striker Harry Kane has also found the net 29 times in 28 appearances for the Bavarians, while contributing eight assists for his teammates. Bayern remain just two points behind Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga table too, and will look to contend on two fronts until the very end of the season.

Last 5 Games
Bayern Munich 3
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1
03.02.24
German Bundesliga
Augsburg 2
Bayern Munich 3
27.01.24
German Bundesliga
Bayern Munich 1
Union Berlin 0
24.01.24
German Bundesliga
Bayern Munich 0
Werder Bremen 1
21.01.24
German Bundesliga
Bayern Munich 3
Hoffenheim 0
12.01.24
German Bundesliga

Bayern could be without 10 players when they travel to Rome, although they may be boosted by the return of centre back pairing Dayot Upamecano (torn muscle fiber) and Min-jae Kim (from international duty). Still, the match is likely to come too soon for Joshua Kimmich (shoulder), Serge Gnabry (muscle) and Konrad Laimer (calf), while reserve keepers Daniel Peretz (inner ligament injury) and Tom Hülsmann (hamstring) are unavailable. Left back Alphonso Davies is also expected to miss out with an internal ligament strain incurred in the 3-1 win over Mönchengladbach last time out, while Tarek Buchmann (torn muscle), Kingsley Coman (internal ligament) and young full back Bouna Sarr (cruciate ligament tear) are all long-term absentees.

Player Reason
Serge Gnabry Muscle Injury
Dayot Upamecano Torn Muscle Fibre
Konrad Laimer Calf Injury
Joshua Kimmich Shoulder Injury
Daniel Peretz Inner Ligament Injury
Tom Hülsmann Hamstring Injury
Alphonso Davies Internal Ligament Strain
Tarek Buchmann Torn Muscle
Kingsley Coman Internal Ligament Injury
Bouna Sarr Cruciate Ligament Tear

👕 Lazio vs Bayern Munich - Potential Lineups

Pos. Lazio
4-3-3
Bayern Munich
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper I. Provedel M. Neuer Goalkeeper
Right Back M. Lazzari N. Mazraoui Right Back
Centre Back M. Gila M. de Ligt Centre Back
Centre Back A. Romagnoli Min-jae Kim Centre Back
Left Back A. Marušić R. Guerreiro Left Back
Midfielder N. Rovella A. Pavlović Midfielder
Midfielder M. Guendouzi L. Goretzka Midfielder
Midfielder L. Alberto T. Müller Midfielder
Wide Forward Pedro L. Sane Wide Forward
Striker C. Immobile H. Kane Striker
Wide Forward F. Anderson J. Musiala Wide Forward

Bayern Munich To Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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