The Ashes 3rd Test Prediction: England versus Australia. Who Will Win? (2023)

Ashes test Ashes test
TournamentThe Ashes
Timetable6th-10th July 2023
PredictionAustralia to win
OddsAustralia to Win @ 2.10
Australia to win
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There was plenty of hype heading into The Ashes betting this year, and it is fair to say that both teams have served up a feast in the first two Tests - there has been no shortage of drama and entertainment, and after the Aussies unceremoniously took Jonny Bairstow's wicket on the final day at Lord's, there is bound to be niggle aplenty at Headingley. We are expecting another spectacle of Test match cricket, and this is who I think we go on to win this important Test.

🌹 England Team Preview

Due to the fact that there is just a three-day gap between the second and third Test, England have already announced their 15-man squad for it. In this announcement, they informed us that both Rehan Ahmed and Matty Potts will be returning to their counties. With such a short break between matches, I am fairly certain that England will make at least a couple of changes.

Jimmy Anderson did not bowl badly in the first two Tests, but he did not get the number of wickets that he deserved. At the age of 40, it is highly unlikely that his body will be able to cope with another intense Test match after just a three-day break. Thus, I think that he will end up being replaced by Mark Wood, who will add some much-needed fire power to England's bowling attack.

Moeen Ali was left out of the match at Lord's due to an injured finger, and it is probable that he will be in the starting XI at Headingley as England's main spinner. However, personally, I would leave him out and pick Chris Woakes instead. Woakes has a really good record in England, and Headingley should be a pitch that suits his type of bowling. To add to this, he is really useful with the bat. If the Aussie batsmen are doing well against the pace attack, then Stokes can turn to Joe Root, who has proven that he is a very handy spinner.

If Brendan McCullum and Stokes do not want to leave out Ali, although I do think he is highly overrated, I still believe that Woakes should be in the starting XI. If Ali is selected, then who would I take out for Woakes? Well, I would have to go for Ollie Robinson. Yes, it is true that he has taken the second highest number of wickets in the series so far, but in the second Test his pace was down, and I think he could do with a rest. I do not think that England's bowling attack would be weakened by adding Woakes for Robinson, while Woakes is also the more accomplished batsman.

My predicted England XI: Duckett, Crawley, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Bairstow, Woakes, Broad, Wood, Tongue.

🦘 Australia Team Preview

The Australian players and fans will probably be quite surprised at their 2-0 lead. They used their "Get Out of Jail" card in the first Test at Edgbaston, while England threw away a promising start in their first innings at Lord's - they cruised to 188/1 and then played some bewildering shots to some short-pitched bowling. At this point in the match, Nathan Lyon had picked up a calf tear, so the England batsmen just had to wait until the Aussie quicks tired themselves out. However, this England team come at you no matter what, and it ended up costing them vital wickets.

With Lyon's injury ruling him out of the rest of the series, Australia will have to make at least one change to the team that won at Lord's. If they want to have a specialised spinner in their playing XI, then they will likely opt for Todd Murphy, who has played in just four Tests. It will be interesting to find out how he copes against a super aggressive England batting lineup that will look to batter him out of the attack. However, the England batsman should show him a bit of respect as he took seven wickets against India on debut.

Do I think that they will make any other changes to their playing XI? Well, Josh Hazelwood has had numerous injury issues as of late, so I think that they might decide to rest him at Headingley, and reinstate Scott Boland, who sat out of the Test at Lord's. With five Test matches in the space of six weeks, rotation is something that is very important. Boland is very similar to Hazelwood in that he can bowl a consistent line and length for a long period of time.

My predicted Australia XI: Warner, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Green, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Boland, Murphy.

⚡ 3rd Test Toss Prediction

Captains usually want to win the toss as it can give their team a huge advantage, but it might actually be better to lose the toss at Headingley. Why is this? Well, out of the 80 Test matches that have taken place at this cricket ground, the team which lost the toss has won 40% of the time, with the team that won the toss winning 37.5% of the time. I think that the captain that wins the toss on Thursday will decide to bowl first since stats show that the team that bats second wins more often than the one that bats first.

🌱 Pitch Conditions at Headingley Cricket Ground

The Headingley pitch is one that bowlers usually like bowling on, and I see no reason why that should be any different for this third Test. Over the 80 games that have been played here, a wicket falls for every 29.59 runs scored, with 2.85 runs being scored per over. With the way that England play nowadays, that might increase slightly by the end of the Test. Fast bowlers average just under 30.00 on this wicket, while spin bowlers average 32.13.

The average score for the team that bats first at Headingley is 304, so despite it being a good place for bowlers, it is also a pitch that batsmen can score on if they play properly. The team that has to bat first on Thursday will look to get through the first hour relatively unscathed, and then will look to get a minimum of 350 runs to firmly put the pressure on their rivals.

🔮 Our Ashes Third Test Match Prediction

So, if you want to place a match winner wager on the top betting sites in Ireland, then who do I recommend you put your money on? Well, I expect this to be another close match, with a great atmosphere and plenty of tension, but I would put my cash on the Aussies to make it 3-0 and retain the urn. This is because they will have plenty of confidence, and the key moments just seem to be going their way at the moment. I hope that England prove me wrong though, so that the final two Test matches are not dead rubbers.

My Match Prediction: Australia to win.

Australia to win

✒️ Sheldon Muchmore - iGaming and Sports Betting Enthusiast

about-author about-author

This Ashes third Test prediction was written by Sheldon Muchmore.

Sheldon is a tipster and betting expert from the United Kingdom who has a passion for a whole range of sports, particularly football, rugby, and cricket. He is an avid Aston Villa fan, so feel free to feel a bit of pity for him. He has been involved in the online gambling industry for a number of years now and has written a large number of predictions for a variety of sports including GAA, so he has built up a lot of sporting expertise over the years.