France vs Poland Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips – 2022 World Cup: Who Will Win?

France vs Poland Prediction and Betting Odds
TournamentFIFA World Cup 2022 - Round of 16
TimetableSunday 4th December at 15:00 GMT
PredictionFrance to win!
OddsFrance to Win @ 1.30
BookmakerTonyBet Sports
France to win!
The best odds
Odds : 1.30
Bet €100 and win €130 if France win.
Odds : 1.30
Bet €100 and win €130 if France win.
Odds : 1.25
Bet €100 and win €125 if France win.

18+ | 1st depositors only. Use promo code H30 to qualify. Min £10/€10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed. | Payment method limitations, country & wagering req. exist | Cashed out/voided bets do not qualify | Play Responsibly | Terms and Conditions apply.


There are two round of 16 clashes in the FIFA World Cup scheduled for Sunday, 4th December, the first of which sees Group D winners and defending champions France take on a Poland side that limped into second place in Group C.

This match is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 GMT, while it will also take place at the Al Thumama Stadium in Doha.

Despite their final group stage defeat to Tunisia (where they rested virtually all of their first team from the start), France are heavy favourites to progress here, having previously thumped Australia and impressed against a Denmark team that had beaten Les Bleus twice in 2022.

As for Poland, they were initially held by Mexico in a disappointing game, and while they beat beat Saudi Arabia 2-0 next time out, they were incredibly toothless and lacklustre in losing by the same margin to Argentina. So, it’s hard to imagine them entering the knockout stages in confident mood, and the latest FIFA World Cup Betting odds seems to suggest this too!

💯 France vs Poland Betting Odds

This brings us neatly onto the primary France vs Poland odds betting markets, which include match wagering, backing both sides to score (or not) and the over/under market for total goals scored during the game.

We’ll explore these markets in more detail below, while appraising the latest odds from our sportsbooks.


🏅 France vs Poland Odds: Match Winner

Let’s start with the match winner market, with all of our recommended betting sites offering competitive France vs Poland odds. These include:

France to Win1.301.301.311.
Poland to Win12.0013.0011.0011.0011.0013.0013.00

⚽France vs Poland Odds: Both Teams to Score

When it comes to the ‘both sides to score’ market, you can access an even money wager on whether this will or won’t happen. Here are the latest prices for this market:


🥅 France vs Poland Odds: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Finally, let’s take a look at the over/under market for total goals scored, which is another even money wager that’s highly popular but often tough to call! Here are the latest odds!

Over 2.5 Goals1.911.911.911.751.801.801.73
Under 2.5 Goals2.

🏠 France Preview

France is the fourth ranked team in the World according to FIFA’s October rankings, which is fitting given their status as the defending world champions.

Ultimately, they progressed from a challenging Group C with relative ease, opening with a 4-1 thumping of Australia despite falling behind to midfielder Craig Goodwin’s ninth-minute goal. Kylian Mbappe starred in this game, with the talismanic winger scoring his fifth finals goal in just his eighth appearance.

The 23-year-old boosted his WC finals tally further in the clash with Denmark, as Les Bleus avenged their two Nations League defeats to the Danes during the summer in a 2-1 win. Mbappe scored twice with predatory finishes, so he now has an impressive seven finals goals in 10 matches.

Didier Deschamps chose to rest his first team against Tunisia, with the Denmark win ensuring qualification to the round of 16. So, although they lost 1-0 and struggled to lay a glove on their opponents, it’s hard to glean anything from this result or performance (other than how injuries have slightly undermined the side’s strength in depth).

📰 Latest France World Cup News

☍ Poland Preview

While Poland are ranked 26th in the world at present, this appeared slightly high given the team’s lacklustre performances throughout the group stages.

They were on the backfoot throughout their opening 0-0 draw with Mexico, for example, and while they missed the best chance of the game when Robert Lewandowski had a second half penalty saved, they struggled to create chances or sustain attacks throughout.

They improved slightly to defeat Saudi Arabia in their second game, as Lewandowski redeemed himself and the legendary striker finally scored his first ever WC finals goal in his fifth appearance overall.

However, the Poles were desperately poor against Argentina, ceding possession and territory from the outset and barely registering a shot on goal. They ultimately succumbed 2-0, and only limped into the round of 16 in second place in Group C by virtue of having a slightly superior goal difference to an enterprising but wasteful Mexico side.

📰 Latest Poland World Cup News

🟨 The Latest Injury News and Suspensions

In many ways, it was easy to see why French manager Deschamps rested so many players ahead of the round of 16, as he continues to battle a full-scale injury crisis.

This saw Paul Pogba, N’Golo Kante and Karim Benzema ruled out before the opening Group C game (Benzema was sidelined on the eve of the tournament), while first choice left back Lucas Hernandez then limped off against Australia with a serious knee injury.

The good news is that everyone made it through the Tunisia game unscathed (even those who came off the bench), but given that none of the reserves made much of an impression during the match, Deschamps is expected to restore much of the side that started against Denmark.

Polish manager Czeslaw Michniewicz is also expected to name a largely unchanged side, despite their underwhelming performance during the group stages and virtual surrender against Argentina (although it’s unclear whether he’ll deploy a back five against the French).

Interestingly, Michniewicz seemed to echo the mood of the squad when he spoke to the press after the Argentina game, suggesting that “I can’t turn water into wine” and directly referencing the lack of quality in his squad.

So, there will once again be a heavy burden placed on Lewandowski in attack, but there’s little that even this talismanic striker and leader can do if he’s starved of quality service and deliveries into the box.

🏆 Key Matchups

If we consider the respective levels of quality in both squads, it’s clear that France have a huge advantage over their rivals and will want to make this count in their second-round clash.

But what are the key duals likely to be in this match? Here’s a glimpse at the top three and look at how they’re likely to impact the final result.

Rafael Varane vs Robert Lewandowski

While Manchester United centre back Rafael Varane is a genuine Rolls Royce of a defender, he never seems to be more than a tackle or two away from an injury.

In fact, he was a doubt for the World Cup squad after injuring himself in the Red Devils’ 1-1 with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, only to return to the side in time for the 2-1 win over Denmark.

However, he still doesn’t look 100% fit, while he was turned inside out by Tunisia’s Wahbi Khazri before the striker stroked home the decisive goal in their final group stage game. Lewandowski will look to exploit this, using his predatory movement and instinct to gain any kind of space in the final third.

However, Lewandowski lacks the pace of Khazri, and to truly trouble Varane, he’s going to need some support in attack and at least a semblance of ambition from his teammate and head coach.

Kylian Mbappe vs Matty Cash

Matty Cash has acquitted himself well in international football, being one of Poland’s more impressive and tenacious performers in Qatar despite being inexperienced at this level.

However, he’ll come up against the rapid Mbappe on Sunday, with the prolific wide man keen to add to his international and World Cup goals tally and once again provide the main attacking outlet for Les Bleus.

It should also be said that Cash is an attacking right back at heart, and he may have limited opportunities to roam forward, supplement the Polish attack and provide service to Lewandowski.

Instead, he’ll have to focus primarily on his defending, tracking Mbappe’s runs inside while calling from cover that prevents him from being isolated out wide too often. If he struggles to cope, Mbappe could well find himself being the match winner once again.

Aurélien Tchouaméni vs Grzegorz Krychowiak

Midfielders Aurélien Tchouaméni and Grzegorz Krychowiak are at different stages of their international careers, with the former having won 17 caps and the 32-year-old veteran Krychowiak poised to win his 98th in Qatar.

However, both are key components in the midfield, with Tchouaméni providing an athletic ball-winning presence and Krychowiak using his experience and positional sense to protect his back four and help Poland retain possession.

Both will be looking to seize control of the midfield in their own way, with Tchouaméni looking to optimise the tempo and lead the press while Krychowiak helps to track French runners and slow the game down as much as possible.

Whichever player wins this dual will lay a solid foundation for their team, even though both are likely to deploy very different styles and approaches during the game.

⚡ France vs Poland – The Head-to-Head Statistics

As old and distinguished UEFA rivals, France and Poland have played each other on numerous occasions (16 in total), with France winning eight of these matches since the very first meeting in January, 1939.

Five of these matches have ended in draws, with Poland victorious on three separate occasions between April 1962 and August 1982.

Interestingly, one of Poland’s wins came during the only FIFA World Cup finals meeting between the pair, which took place at the Estadio José Rico Pérez in Alicante. This was actually a third-place playoff in the Spain 1982 World Cup, with the Poles recovering from an early Rene Girard goal to ultimately a secure a 3-2 win and the country’s best ever finish at the finals.

Poland’s last win came just six weeks later in an international friendly in Paris (4-0), with France remaining unbeaten in the subsequent seven encounters (winning three and drawing four).

🥇 France vs Poland Prediction - Who Will Win?

Regardless of which way you look at this round of 16 clash, it’s hard to look beyond a comfortable win for France.

Not only are Les Bleus higher ranked and known to preserve their best form for the biggest occasions (hence their 2018 World Cup win), but they’ve also showcased glimpses of their quality already during the group stage.

Conversely, Poland have looked shorn of confidence and ambition throughout, while their lack of energy during the tournament suggests that the players may also be short of both quality and energy across the pitch.

Given that even Poland’s head coach seems to agree with this negative sentiment, we’re backing France to record a comfortable win here and seal a potential quarterfinal clash with England (should they see off Senegal in their own round of 16 clash)!

Our France vs Poland match prediction: France to win 3-0.

🔍 Our France vs Poland Betting Tips?

France are heavy odds-on favourites to win here too, with the average price indicating that a Les Bleus win has an implied probability of 78%.

So, although straight match betting doesn’t offer a great deal of value here, you could apply a handicap of -1.5 or -2.5 to the world champions to lengthen the odds in your favour without overly compromising your chances of winning.

Given France’s immense firepower, we’d also back there being over 2.5 goals scored at the Al Thumama Stadium at a price of 1.91 with TonyBet Sports.

We’d also expect France to score all of these, so you may also want to place a small side bet on both side not scoring at 1.57 with either BetVictor or TonyBet Sports! As always, gamble responsibly when partaking in football betting, and never wager more than you can afford to lose across your chosen markets.

The average price shows that a victory for Les Bleus has an estimated probability of 78%. A handicap of -1.5 or -2.5 could be a favourable market for football betting fans.

🎁 France vs Poland World Cup Free Bets

Before we go, we thought we’d bring you some of the best World Cup free bets available ahead of the match.

Some of these unlock up to €100 in free bets, and you can deploy this on France vs Poland or any other WC match as you see fit!

SportsbookOfferVisit Sportsbook
Receive up to €50 in Free Bets
Free Bet Offer up to €100
100% Matched Free Bet up to €100
Profit Boost Welcome Bonus up to €400
Free Bet Offer up to €50
€20 Free Bet Bonus
€30 free bet Welcome Bonus
€100 Bets Bonus Offer
Receive up to €20 Free Bet Bonus
Cash back bonus up to €40
100% Matched Free Bet up to €100
€35 Free Bets Welcome Bonus

France to win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries - Sports Journalist, Tipster and Betting Expert

Lewis Humphries

This France vs Poland Prediction was written by Lewis Humphries. Lewis is a business and iGaming copywriter from the UK, who has a passion for sports betting and online casino gaming. He's reviewed some of the world's leading casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands.

His content has also featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

Can't get enough World Cup 2022 predictions? Read more via our links below: