West Ham vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

west-ham-v-aston-villa-logo west-ham-v-aston-villa-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable14:00 GMT, 17th Mar 24
PredictionAston Villa to Win!
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
Aston Villa to Win!
The best odds
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 2.38
Bet €100 and win €238 if Aston Villa win.
Odds : 2.30
Bet €100 and win €230 if Aston Villa win.
Palm​slots Sport
Odds : 2.30
Bet €100 and win €230 if Aston Villa win.
west-ham-v-aston-villa-logo west-ham-v-aston-villa-logo

Dark clouds continue to envelop West Ham coach David Moyes, despite his team occupying seventh place in the Premier League table and competing in the knockout stages of the Europa League once again. This weekend they’ll face an Aston Villa side that’s still smarting from their 4-0 thrashing by top-four rivals Spurs, which was the Villains’ fourth defeat in their previous 10 EPL matches. A win for the Hammers would move them within one point of Man United in sixth, but can they achieve this objective or will Villa deliver on their status as favourites among Ireland’s best betting sites?

🏆 West Ham vs Aston Villa EPL Prediction

Villa thumped West Ham 4-1 in the reverse fixture on October 22nd, as goals from Douglas Luiz (2), Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey put the Hammers to the sword. Villa produced an xG value of 2.34 (compared to just 0.66 for West Ham), while David Moyes’ side were largely outplayed save for a brief spell either side of Jarrod Bowen’s goal.

This performance was typical of Villa in 2023/24, with the side averaging 54.7 possession per 90 this season and producing an impressive 3.57 goal-creating actions per 90. They certainly like to play progressively in their opponent’s half of the pitch and have maintained an average defensive line that measures 45.76 metres from their own goal line.

While this can also make them vulnerable to the type of fast and direct transitions that are West Ham’s trademark, the Hammers are often too passive and unable to sustain an attacking threat. To this end, they’ve only averaged 41.80% possession and just 3.79 shots on target per 90 minutes so far this season and may struggle to impose themselves in East London.

The Hammers have also won just one of their previous five home matches and were held by Burnley last time out in comparison to Aston Villa who are now unbeaten in four on the road. So, the smart money is on a win for Unai Emery’s men here, in a match where both teams will find the back of the net.

My Prediction: 🏆 West Ham 1 – 2 Aston Villa ⚽

💯 West Ham vs Aston Villa EPL Match Odds

There are hundreds of football betting markets available when wagering on the clash between West Ham and Aston Villa, whether you want to back the match winner or both teams to score (BTTS). You can also access the over/under on the total number of goals scored, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 West Ham vs Aston Villa: Match Winner

While Villa are the favourites to defeat West Ham in the capital, their average odds of 2.30 only imply a 43.47% probability of an away win. As for the Hammers, they can be backed at around 2.75 to prevail, suggesting that they have a 36.36% chance of victory. The draw is statistically the least likely outcome and is priced at 3.60.

West Ham to Win2.752.752.682.752.75
Aston Villa to Win2.252.302.302.302.38

⚽ West Ham vs Aston Villa: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in seven of West Ham’s 14 home matches this season. The Hammers kept four clean sheets and failed to score on three occasions. Both sides have found the net in nine of Villa’s 14 away games in the 2023/24 Premier League campaign (64%). Emery’s men kept three clean sheets and drew two blanks on the road. They’ve scored in seven of their previous eight EPL away matches.


🥅 West Ham vs Aston Villa: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

West Ham’s 14 home games have also produced 45 goals in total, at a rate of 3.21 per 90 minutes. However, they’ve conceded 21 of these goals and 10 in their last three matches at the London Stadium alone. Aston Villa’s 14 away matches have yielded 46 goals at the slightly higher rate of 3.28 per game, so fans are looking forward to an entertaining contest this weekend.

Over 2.5 Goals1.501.551.501.531.53
Under 2.5 Goals2.382.382.362.502.38

✔️ West Ham vs Aston Villa - Betting Tips

There’s genuine value to be unlocked when betting on the match between West Ham and Aston Villa, especially with the win market highly competitively priced. Here are the tips I've come up with for this clash!

  • Tip 1: Back Aston Villa to Win Despite Villa’s status as favourites to defeat West Ham in East London, there’s still value in backing them to win outright at a price of 2.38 with LegendPlay Sports. After all, the Hammers have struggled at home recently, winning just one of their last five matches at the London Stadium and scoring only seven goals during this sequence. At the same time, Villa’s form on the road has improved since their 2-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest on November 5th, losing only one of their subsequent eight matches and winning three in a row.
  • Tip 2: Back Aston Villa to Win and Both Teams to Score: If you have one or more free bets on your account, you could also consider engaging in combination betting. For example, backing Villa to win and both teams to score unlocks the enhanced price of 3.80 with Betway, while this reflects the recent form statistics and the fact that both teams have found the net in 64% of Villa’s away games so far this season.
  • Tip 3: Back Ollie Watkins as an Anytime Scorer: Ollie Watkins is the second top scorer in this season’s EPL, hitting 16 goals from 86 shots and an xG of just 14.3. The England hitman has also scored four goals (and provided one assist) in just seven Premier League career appearances against West Ham, including his strike in the 4-1 win at Villa Park back in October. So, consider getting on Watkins as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 2.50 with PalmSlots Sports.

1️⃣ West Ham Update

West Ham have taken 13 points from the previous 30 available to them, having won three and lost three of their last 10 matches in the Premier League. This sequence of form has included their run of just one win in five home games, with Brentford the only team to taste defeat at the London Stadium since December 23rd. Brighton, Bournemouth and Burnley have all left East London with a point during 2024, while Arsenal also recorded a thumping 6-0 at West Ham on February 11th. They’ll certainly have to raise this level of performance if they’re to halt this poor run of form against the Villains.

Last 5 Games
West Ham 2
Burnley 2
Premier League
SC Freiburg 1
West Ham 0
Europa League
Everton 1
West Ham 3
Premier League
West Ham 4
Brentford 2
Premier League
Nottm Forest 2
West Ham 0
Premier League

Full back Emerson will be assessed this week ahead of kick-off and West Ham’s midweek Europa League clash against Freiburg as he continues to nurse a groin injury. The same applies to Maxwel Cornet who is struggling with a hamstring injury and may not be fit for the visit of Aston Villa. Otherwise, West Ham will be at full strength this weekend.

Emerson Groin Injury
Maxwel Cornet Hamstring Injury

2️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Interestingly, it’s Villa’s home form that has stuttered of late, after a run of 15 successive EPL wins between February 18th and December 22nd 2023. Conversely, their away form has improved markedly, winning three of their last four matches on the road and only losing one of eight since they succumbed 2-0 to Nottingham Forest on November 5th. Overall, they’ve taken 16 points from the previous 30 available to them both home and away, winning five times during this sequence, scoring 21 goals and conceding 19. This has left them two points clear of Spurs in fourth place, although the Lilywhites retain a game in hand.

Last 5 Games
Aston Villa 0
Tottenham 4
Premier League
Ajax 0
Aston Villa 0
Europa League
Luton Town 2
Aston Villa 3
Premier League
Aston Villa 4
Nottm Forest 2
Premier League
Fulham 1
Aston Villa 2
Premier League

Centre-back Diego Carlos made his return from the bench against Spurs and may come straight back into the starting 11 in East London. Jacob Ramsey will also be assessed as he recovers from an ankle injury. John McGinn is suspended after his red card against Ange Postecoglou’s team. Otherwise, Villa have three long-term absentees, in the form of Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia (both ACL injuries) and Boubacar Kamara (knee). None of these players will appear again this season.

Jacob Ramsey Ankle Injury
John McGinn Suspended
Boubacar Kamara Knee Injury
Tyrone Mings ACL Injury
Emiliano Buendia ACL Injury

👕 West Ham vs Aston Villa - Potential Lineups

Pos. West Ham
Aston Villa
Goalkeeper A. Areola E. Martinez Goalkeeper
Right Back V. Coufal E. Konza Right Back
Centre Back K. Mavropanos P. Torres Centre Back
Centre Back N. Aguerd D. Carlos Centre Back
Left Back A. Cresswell L. Digne Left Back
Midfielder T. Souček L. Bailey Right Midfielder
Midfielder E. Alvarez D. Luiz Central Midfielder
Midfielder J. Ward-Prowse J. Tielemens Central Midfielder
Wide Forward M. Kudus N. Zaniolo Left Midfielder
Striker J. Bowen M. Diaby Striker
Wide Forward L. Paquetá O. Watkins Striker

Aston Villa to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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