West Ham vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 West Ham vs Aston Villa EPL Prediction

Villa thumped West Ham 4-1 in the reverse fixture on October 22nd, as goals from Douglas Luiz (2), Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey put the Hammers to the sword. Villa produced an xG value of 2.34 (compared to just 0.66 for West Ham), while David Moyes’ side were largely outplayed save for a brief spell either side of Jarrod Bowen’s goal.

This performance was typical of Villa in 2023/24, with the side averaging 54.7 possession per 90 this season and producing an impressive 3.57 goal-creating actions per 90. They certainly like to play progressively in their opponent’s half of the pitch and have maintained an average defensive line that measures 45.76 metres from their own goal line.

While this can also make them vulnerable to the type of fast and direct transitions that are West Ham’s trademark, the Hammers are often too passive and unable to sustain an attacking threat. To this end, they’ve only averaged 41.80% possession and just 3.79 shots on target per 90 minutes so far this season and may struggle to impose themselves in East London.

The Hammers have also won just one of their previous five home matches and were held by Burnley last time out in comparison to Aston Villa who are now unbeaten in four on the road. So, the smart money is on a win for Unai Emery’s men here, in a match where both teams will find the back of the net.

💯 West Ham vs Aston Villa EPL Match Odds

There are hundreds of football betting markets available when wagering on the clash between West Ham and Aston Villa, whether you want to back the match winner or both teams to score (BTTS). You can also access the over/under on the total number of goals scored, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 West Ham vs Aston Villa: Match Winner

While Villa are the favourites to defeat West Ham in the capital, their average odds of 2.30 only imply a 43.47% probability of an away win. As for the Hammers, they can be backed at around 2.75 to prevail, suggesting that they have a 36.36% chance of victory. The draw is statistically the least likely outcome and is priced at 3.60.

Team
West Ham to Win	2.75	2.75	2.68	2.75	2.75
Aston Villa to Win	2.25	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.38
Draw	3.60	3.75	3.55	3.60	3.60

⚽ West Ham vs Aston Villa: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in seven of West Ham’s 14 home matches this season. The Hammers kept four clean sheets and failed to score on three occasions. Both sides have found the net in nine of Villa’s 14 away games in the 2023/24 Premier League campaign (64%). Emery’s men kept three clean sheets and drew two blanks on the road. They’ve scored in seven of their previous eight EPL away matches.

Yes/No
Yes	1.40	1.48	1.42	1.44	1.44
No	2.60	2.60	2.58	2.63	2.63

🥅 West Ham vs Aston Villa: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

West Ham’s 14 home games have also produced 45 goals in total, at a rate of 3.21 per 90 minutes. However, they’ve conceded 21 of these goals and 10 in their last three matches at the London Stadium alone. Aston Villa’s 14 away matches have yielded 46 goals at the slightly higher rate of 3.28 per game, so fans are looking forward to an entertaining contest this weekend.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.50	1.55	1.50	1.53	1.53
Under 2.5 Goals	2.38	2.38	2.36	2.50	2.38

1️⃣ West Ham Update

West Ham have taken 13 points from the previous 30 available to them, having won three and lost three of their last 10 matches in the Premier League. This sequence of form has included their run of just one win in five home games, with Brentford the only team to taste defeat at the London Stadium since December 23rd. Brighton, Bournemouth and Burnley have all left East London with a point during 2024, while Arsenal also recorded a thumping 6-0 at West Ham on February 11th. They’ll certainly have to raise this level of performance if they’re to halt this poor run of form against the Villains.

Full back Emerson will be assessed this week ahead of kick-off and West Ham’s midweek Europa League clash against Freiburg as he continues to nurse a groin injury. The same applies to Maxwel Cornet who is struggling with a hamstring injury and may not be fit for the visit of Aston Villa. Otherwise, West Ham will be at full strength this weekend.

2️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Interestingly, it’s Villa’s home form that has stuttered of late, after a run of 15 successive EPL wins between February 18th and December 22nd 2023. Conversely, their away form has improved markedly, winning three of their last four matches on the road and only losing one of eight since they succumbed 2-0 to Nottingham Forest on November 5th. Overall, they’ve taken 16 points from the previous 30 available to them both home and away, winning five times during this sequence, scoring 21 goals and conceding 19. This has left them two points clear of Spurs in fourth place, although the Lilywhites retain a game in hand.

Centre-back Diego Carlos made his return from the bench against Spurs and may come straight back into the starting 11 in East London. Jacob Ramsey will also be assessed as he recovers from an ankle injury. John McGinn is suspended after his red card against Ange Postecoglou’s team. Otherwise, Villa have three long-term absentees, in the form of Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia (both ACL injuries) and Boubacar Kamara (knee). None of these players will appear again this season.

👕 West Ham vs Aston Villa - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.