Newcastle vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

newcastle-v-tottenham-logo newcastle-v-tottenham-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable12:30 GMT, 13th Apr 24
PredictionNewcastle to Win!
Odds2.75
Bookmaker1Bet Sports
Newcastle to Win!
The best odds
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1​Bet Sports
Odds : 2.75
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Odds : 2.75
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Palm​slots Sport
Odds : 2.70
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newcastle-v-tottenham-logo newcastle-v-tottenham-logo

Newcastle’s form has picked up of late, with Eddie Howe’s side having lost just one of their last five Premier League matches as they push for a top-six finish in 2023/24. However, Spurs have taken more points from their last 10 games and lost only twice during this sequence, while they now sit fourth in the EPL and ahead of Aston Villa on goal difference. The good news for the Magpies is that they remain very strong at home, whereas Tottenham have only won one of their previous six matches on the road. So, which side will prevail in the North East, and will we see another high-scoring encounter at St James Park?

🏆 Newcastle vs Tottenham EPL Prediction

The reverse fixture took place on December 10th at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with Spurs thrashing an injury-ravaged Newcastle side 4-1. Ange Postecoglou’s side dominated from the outset and accumulated an impressive xG of 4.40 during the 90 minutes, whereas Newcastle struggled at both ends of the pitch and shipped 23 shots on goal.

Interestingly, Newcastle are among the most effective attacking forces in the 2023/24 EPL, with the Magpies producing a collective xG of 58.5 (the fourth highest value in the league) and outperforming this by +6.5 goals. Eddie Howe’s side have also scored 0.13 goals-per-shot this season, with no other team bettering this throughout the whole of the competition.

However, it’s defensively where Newcastle have struggled, having won just 42% of their tackles in the campaign so far (no other team has fared worse by this metric). Although Spurs have also been porous at times this season, they’re the only team to attempt more than 100 tackles (102) in the attacking third, and will look to win the ball back high and keep Newcastle away from their goal.

Ultimately, this should be an open and high-scoring encounter and one that could be settled by a mistake or moment of brilliance. However, it should be noted that Spurs have created 18 errors leading to an opponent’s shot on goal this season, while Anthony Gordon and the in-form Harvey Barnes will relish the space behind Tottenham’s defensive line.

My Prediction: 🏆 Newcastle 3 - 2 Tottenham ⚽

💯 Newcastle vs Tottenham EPL Match Odds

This is a fascinating match to wager on, with goals almost guaranteed and neither team boasting a reliable or solid defence. You can also wager on a huge range of football betting markets ahead of this game, including the match winner, both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes.

🏅 Newcastle vs Tottenham: Match Winner

The best betting sites are relatively split on which team will prevail at St James Park. For example, you can back the hosts to triumph at an average price of 2.70, which implies a 37.03% probability of a home win. As for Spurs, you can bet on them to win at around 2.29, suggesting that they have a 43.66% chance of leaving the North East with three points.

Team
Newcastle to Win2.752.702.642.702.75
Tottenham to Win2.252.382.392.252.30
Draw4.003.804.004.003.90

⚽ Newcastle vs Tottenham: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 56% of Newcastle’s home Premier League games this season, with the Magpies keeping an impressive seven clean sheets (but just one in their last seven matches) and yet to draw a single blank at St James Park. Both sides have found the net in 67% of Spurs’ away contests in 2023/24, with the North London team keeping four clean sheets and failing to score only once on the road (against Fulham on March 16th).

Yes/No
Yes1.291.351.311.331.30
No3.303.103.253.003.10

🥅 Newcastle vs Tottenham: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Newcastle have contested 16 EPL home matches in 2023/24 so far, with these encounters yielding 59 goals at a rate of 3.68 per game. In the case of Spurs, the Lilywhites have only played 15 away matches in the league this season. These games have produced 55 goals at a slightly lower rate of 3.66 per 90.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.301.381.321.331.33
Under 2.5 Goals3.203.003.113.003.20

✔️ Newcastle vs Tottenham - Betting Tips

You can bet on the clash between Newcastle and Spurs using your real money bankroll or any free bets that you have on your account, and I’ve already touched on the huge range of markets available. Here are some expert tips to help you navigate these markets and achieve optimal value!

  • Tip 1: Back Over 4.5 Goals Being Scored: Most over/under betting takes place around the 2.5 goal line, but this offers minimal value here given the quality of attacking players and defensive vulnerabilities on show at St James Park. Instead, there’s value in predicting a much higher scoring match between these two sides, especially as the reverse fixture produced a total of five goals and a cumulative xG of 6.01. So, I recommend backing over 4.5 goals being scored in the match at price of 3.20 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Newcastle to Win Outright: Neither side is a heavy betting favourite here, but Newcastle are the slight underdogs and have just a 37.03% probability of winning in front of their home fans. However, this doesn’t reflect Newcastle’s solid home form (they’re unbeaten in five at St James since January 13th), or the fact that they’ve won 10 of their 16 matches in front of their home fans so far (62.5%). Spurs have only won one of their previous six games on the road too, so there’s value in backing the Magpies to win outright at a price of 2.75 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back Alexander Isak as an Anytime Goalscorer: Alexander Isak has struck 15 EPL goals so far this season, from 50 attempts on goal and an xG of 14.4. He’s also in a rich vein of recent form, having scored five goals in his last five Premier league appearances (including a brace in the 4-3 win over West Ham at St James Park). The Swede has two career goals against Spurs in just two appearances too, so there’s value in backing him as an anytime scorer at the competitive price of 2.30 with Royalistplay-sports.

1️⃣ Newcastle Update

Newcastle are now placed 8th in the EPL table and just two points behind Man United in sixth, as Eddie Howe’s men continue their assault on the European places. Remember, they’ve lost just one of their last five games despite a mounting injury crisis and some inconsistent performances (especially in the defensive third). Overall, Newcastle have won five and lost just two of their last 10 Premier League games, with the Magpies taking 18 points from the 30 available to them during this period. However, they’ve also conceded 20 goals during these matches and continue to struggle in the absence of several key defenders.

Last 5 Games
Fulham 0
Newcastle 1
06.04.24
Premier League
Newcastle 1
Everton 1
02.04.24
Premier League
Newcastle 4
West Ham 3
30.03.24
Premier League
Man City 2
Newcastle 0
16.03.24
FA Cup
Chelsea 3
Newcastle 2
11.03.24
Premier League

Lewis Hall may be passed fit for the match against Spurs, as he finalises his recovery from a thigh injury. However, the Magpies remain without Matt Targett (heel injury), Kieran Trippier (calf), Valentino Livramento (ankle) and Joe Willock (calf). Miguel Almiron (knee), Nick Pope (shoulder), Joelinton (hamstring) and Callum Wilson (chest) have been ruled out until May at least, as has Lewis Miley (lower back). Jamaal Lascelles and Sven Botman (both knee) are out for the season, while Sandro Tonali continues to serve his suspension for breaching betting breaches and won’t play until the 2024/25 campaign.

PlayerReason
Matt Targett Heel Injury
Kieran Trippier Calf Injury
Valentino Livramento Ankle Injury
Joe Willock Calf Injury
Miguel Almiron Knee Injury
Nick Pope Shoulder Injury
Joelinton Hamstring Injury
Callum Wilson Chest Injury
Lewis Miley Lower Back Injury
Jamaal Lascelles Knee Injury
Sven Botman Knee Injury
Sandro Tonali Suspended

2️⃣ Tottenham Update

Tottenham are one of the few teams in better form than Newcastle in the Premier League, having won six of their previous 10 games and taken 20 points from the 30 available to them during this time. Although only Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool have earned more in this period, Ange Postecoglou’s men continue to struggle on the road and in the defensive third. In fact, they have only won one of their last six league away matches since a 2-0 victory at Nottingham Forest on December 15th, while conceding 12 goals during this sequence. They’ve only kept two clean sheets in 10 games on their travels, too.

Last 5 Games
Tottenham 3
Nottingham Forest 1
07.04.24
Premier League
West Ham 1
Tottenham 1
02.04.24
Premier League
Tottenham 2
Luton 1
30.03.24
Premier League
Fulham 3
Tottenham 0
16.03.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 0
Tottenham 4
10.03.24
Premier League

Unlike Newcastle, Spurs’ injury crisis has started to ease in recent weeks as several players have returned to fitness. However, Brazilian striker Richarlison (who scored a brace in the reverse fixture in December) remains out with a knee injury, while Manor Solomon (knee) won’t play again this season. The same can be said for both Ryan Sessegnon (thigh) and Fraser Forster (ankle), who won’t return to training until June.

PlayerReason
Manor Solomon Knee Injury
Fraser Forster Ankle Injury
Ryan Sessegnon Thigh Injury
Richarlison Knee Injury

👕 Newcastle vs Tottenham - Potential Lineups

Pos. Newcastle
4-3-3
Tottenham
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper M. Dúbravka G. Vicario Goalkeeper
Right Back E. Krafth P. Porro Right Back
Centre Back F. Schär C. Romero Centre Back
Centre Back D. Burn M. van de Ven Centre Back
Left Back L. Hall D. Udogie Left Back
Midfielder S. Longstaff Y. Bissouma Midfielder
Midfielder B. Guimarães Pape Matar Sarr Midfielder
Midfielder E. Anderson J. Maddison Midfielder
Wide Forward H. Barnes D. Kulusevski Wide Forward
Striker A. Isak Son Heung-min Striker
Wide Forward A. Gordon T. Werner Wide Forward

Newcastle to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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